The biggest Derby Prep race in New York is the Wood Memorial, which is a race that is loaded with history. 11 winners of the Wood would go on to win the Kentucky Derby, with Fusaichi Pegasus being the most recent (2000). Secretariat was defeated in this race back in 1973 before going on to win all three legs of the prestigious Triple Crown. Since 1989, this race has produced three Belmont winners, Easy Goer, Empire Maker, and Mo Donegal. Horses like Devil His Due, Coronado’s Quest, Verrazano, Frosted, and Vino Rosso would all go on to Win Grade 1 races after winning this race.
This year’s running drew a field of 13 headed by Deterministic who won the Gotham in his second career start, when making his first start since August. Obviously, he is a very nice horse, but he is being asked to get two turns for the first time in his career, and he’ll have to beat some sharp horses if he’s able to do so.
Post time for this race, which kicks off the first leg of the $3 Pick-3 wager that links today’s major Derby preps, is 4:07 (ET),
Aqueduct, Saturday 4/6/24, Race 10: The Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes
200 Total Derby Points (100/50/25/15/10)
1 – Resilience (6-1 ML): He drew an outside post for his first start against winners when running in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. His 4th place effort in that race was bolstered two weeks ago when Catching Freedom, who was the third place finisher, came back to win the Louisiana Derby. He faced good horses who ran big races when trying to break his maiden, so the fact that it took him four tries to graduate from that class is not concerning. He took a step forward against a better field and he continues to improve. He’s the second foal to race from dam, Meadowsweet, who was the foal to race from the Grade 1 winning mare, Tranquility Lake. That mare produced a pair of Grade 1 winners, both coming on the grass. While I wouldn’t be surprised if Mott takes a shot with this one on the turf in the near future, he’s done nothing wrong in his last few starts on the dirt. I think he’s a player in this race.
2 – El Grande O (8-1 ML): He continues to earn points toward entry to the Kentucky Derby, and another in the money finish will likely get him there. He’s danced every dance in New York this year, finishing second in the Jerome and Withers, and then third in the Gotham last month. Despite a decent effort in the Withers, which was contested at this distance, he was able to save a lot of ground in that race, whereas many others had less than ideal trips. Uncle Heavy covered significantly more ground than he did that day and was able to get his nose down on the wire. That one was definitely the better horse in that race and now he’s facing a substantially better field. I think he’s more effective at one turn and while he has a decent post for the race he wants to run, I think his ceiling is third place today.
3 – Lonesome Boy (50-1 ML): Hugo Padilla ships this Washington bred son of Nationhood to New York after a dominating win in the City of Brotherly Love Stakes in the slop last month at Parx. The heavy favorite in that race, Guanare, faltered when trying two turns for the first time. He’s scheduled to run in an allowance sprint at Keeneland around 1:30 today, so I guess a strong effort from him in that race could upgrade him a little bit in this race. However, this is a horse with a modest pedigree whose Beyer figures have been steady in the 70’s in his last three starts. While he’s done very well in Philadelphia since breaking his maiden in December, I see this field being too tough for him today.
4 – Deterministic (7-5 ML): I thought Christophe Clement was asking an awful lot of this Liam’s Map colt to face winners for the first time in a graded stakes race, while making his first start (which was only his second career start) in over six months. However, he proved me wrong and showed how much quality this horse has by winning that race in the slop with ease last month. Clement mentioned after the race that he was unsure if he was going to run him again before the Derby. He did opt to bring him back North from Florida after a pair of solid workouts at Payson Park. He might be good enough to beat these, but I do wonder if there’s enough stamina influences in his pedigree to be able to compete at the highest level of competition in two turn dirt races. His dam was a turf sprinter who produced two other foals that never won a race beyond 6 ½ furlongs. Liam’s Map was the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in 2015, and he was the winner of the Woodward Stakes at nine furlongs at Saratoga. I will cover with him in this spot because I do think his Gotham win was one of the more impressive individual efforts on this year’s Derby Trail. However, I have enough doubts about his ability to get this distance today, that I’ll look for some better prices on top.
5 – Protective (30-1 ML): Todd Pletcher sends out this maiden for his third career try today. He was sharp on debut at Saratoga in July, just missing to Valentine Candy. That horse has gone on to be a multiple stakes winning sprinter, so there’s no shame in that effort. He came back last month after nearly eight months on the sidelines in a soft maiden special weight race at Tampa. While he didn’t have a great trip, Camacho was all over him prior to making the second turn. He finished with a little interest late, but there was nothing I saw from that effort that would convince me that he’s going to come back to be competitive in a race like this.
6 – Evening News (20-1 ML): Jareth Loveberry comes to town to ride this son of Nyquist who romped in a N2L allowance race at Turfway last month. He’s been sharp since being claimed by Michael Pino for $50K back in January at Turfway. Now, he ships, switches surfaces, and is being asked to tackle a much stronger field while moving into graded stakes company. He won’t be on my tickets today.
7 – Merit (20-1 ML): Saffie Joseph ships this son of Mastery up North after finishing second in allowance company at Gulfstream. He lost to Conquest Warrior who was a non-factor in the Florida Derby last month. This colt was exceptional on debut at seven furlongs, but he’s struggled to finish his last two races against winners with the same type of energy. While I like that he has distance experience, I haven’t seen enough growth to think he’ll contend in a two turn race like this.
8 – Elysian Meadows (15-1 ML): This City of Light colt won his first two starts against fellow Empire breds at Aqueduct at the end of last year. Mott shipped him to Tampa where he had the misfortune of drawing post 12 for the Sam F. Davis Stakes. He turned in a respectable effort in a slow race, finishing 4th. I thought that race was a below average prep and the fact that his first three Beyer Figures have been in the upper 60’s tells me that he’s too slow to be competitive with this group.
9 – Tuscan Sky (4-1 ML): Of the two runners he is sending out, this is the Pletcher colt that figures to have the best chance. He’s started two, both on off-tracks, and has two big efforts, winning easily on the course at six furlongs, and then acing the two turn test when soundly defeating Nash at the Fair Grounds in a three horse allowance race on the Risen Star undercard. Nash has yet to run a race as strong as his maiden breaking effort at Churchill, but he did come back to win the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn after that effort. My main concern is that he’s defeated exactly seven horses in his first two starts, and assuming everyone participates today, he’s going to be asked to defeat a field of 12 today while starting from a wide draw. He’s had five solid works at Palm Beach Downs since his last start and this race feels like the next logical progression for him. Pletcher has won this race seven times since 2010, including the 2018 edition where his sire, Vino Rosso took home the trophy. This colt looks like one of his nicer runners while he’s getting a class test, I think he’s a major player with this group.
10 – Gettysburg Address (30-1 ML): After his 4th place effort in the Smarty Jones stakes at the beginning of the year, he looked like an improving three year old that could continue to get better and make some noise on the Derby Trail. Brad Cox ran him in an allowance race in his next start, which was a dull effort. It is important to note, that race came after an almost two week shut down of racing and training at Oaklawn, so there were several horses that ran subpar efforts in those first few weeks back. Cox tried him at Turfway on the synthetic last out where he was no match for Evening News. After that race, he was privately purchased and moved to Dallas Stewart’s barn. He’s had one work for him and he brings Emmanuel Esquivel to ride for the first time. Esquivel has had a strong winter at Oaklawn and he’s won three of seven races when riding for Stewart. I do think this is a horse that will improve for Stewart, and he could be a candidate to improve enough to be a contender in a race like the Matt Winn Stakes toward the end of their spring meet at Churchill. While I prefer him to some of the other longer priced runners in this race, I don’t think he’s ready to be competitive at this level today.
11 – Society Man (30-1 ML): He ran in the Withers two starts ago as a maiden and he was one of a few horses that had rough trips in that race. He added Lasix and came from off the pace to break his maiden in a one turn mile race on this oval last month. He draws a tough post and would likely be better suited facing N1X allowance types today.
12 – Deposition (50-1 ML): Uriah St. Lewis sends out this horse that is certain to be overlooked by bettors. He was a respectable 4th in the Withers when he was sent off at 71-1 while having one of the best trips in that race. He was dismissed once again in the Gotham, going off at 82-1 and finishing in the middle of the pack. I don’t see him getting the beautiful trip that he had in the Withers while breaking from Post 12 this afternoon, despite his trainer’s ability to show up with big longshots.
13 – Uncle Heavy (8-1 ML): He was no doubt the best horse in the Withers when he was able to cover more ground than anyone else and still get up for the victory. He was given some extra time off after that race and returned to the worktab at Parx three weeks ago. He’s an improving Pennsylvania bred son of Social Inclusion that has a win at the track and distance. His only career loss came after a disastrous start in the PA Nursery Stakes in December. He’s been dealt a very tough hand in this race though, breaking from Post 13 against a much tougher field. I respect him, but I prefer others today.
The Verdict: 1-9-4
While Deterministic (#4) is clearly the horse to beat, there are questions about the distance that he’s going to have to answer in this spot. He’s been flawless in his first two races and he’s shown that he’s worth every penny of the $625K that his owners paid for him. He’s a cool story that adds a ton of intrigue to this year’s Derby if he can run well today. However, at odds of 7-5 or less, I think others offer better value.
Resilience (#1) is the pick, making his second start against winners. I think the Risen Star field was one of the better groups assembled during this Derby Trail and he was 4th, beaten less than four lengths that day, while catching a sloppy course. He draws the rail, which should be favorable for avoiding ground loss in the early stages of this race and he’s shown a nice pattern of improvement while facing better horses than what most of these runners have been up against. At 6-1 or better, I’d be willing to place a solid win bet on him.
Tuscan Sky (#9) is the logical alternative to the top pick after a big effort in a tiny allowance field at the Fair Grounds. He’s proven he can handle an off-track and he’s likely to run on a fast surface for the first time today. Todd Pletcher has seven wins in this race, so he knows what it takes to win here. The ceiling is high for this runner, but this will be a new challenge for him.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa, Caesars-William Hill, or Westgate will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
