We’re down to the final two cards of the spring at Keeneland before they pass the baton to Churchill Downs. There are nine races today with some very interesting maiden races on this card. First post for today’s program is set for 1:00 (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 1 | 1,6 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 2 | 2,4,9 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 7 | 7,6 | 8 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 9 | 9,8 | 7 | 6 | DBL, PK3, PK6 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | DBL, PK3, PK5,
$3 All-Turf PK3, (R5, R7, R9) |
|
| 6 | 7 | 7 | 5,2 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 4 | 4 | 5,6,3 | DBL, $3 Late PK3 | |
| 8 | 2 | 2,10 | DBL | ||
| 9 | 11 | 11,3 | 6 |
Race 1:
We’ll start the Thursday card with a $50K claiming race for three year olds going 11/16 miles on the main track. All eyes will be on the class dropping favorite, Gethsemane (#6) for Brad Cox. He was third to Thailand on the first Saturday of the meet when racing in N1X allowance company. His maiden score at Oaklawn two back was solid, beating a nice field there. I’m a little surprised to see him entered for a tag in this spot though. He cost $425K and his first start against winners wasn’t that bad. He faced a small field that day and was in chase mode from the start after breaking a beat slow. He also was on the wrong lead for the better part of that stretch drive, all of which feels correctable. He’s the class of this field and Cox and Ortiz have been a lethal combination at this meet. He’s going to be on my tickets, but I’m going to try Spirit of a Walkon (#1) for Dale Romans on top in this race. He’s making his second start off the layoff and he’ll be routing on the dirt for the first time. He broke his maiden in a gate to wire effort at Turfway when dropping into the $50K maiden claiming level three starts ago. He tried allowance company in his last two starts. Something seemed amiss two back, which explains the extra time before between that start and his most recent race. He was more competitive last out, but this is probably the right level of competition for him. There’s not much early speed signed on and he’s got the pole position along the rail. He ran well enough on the dirt in a sprint race as a two year old to make me believe he’s capable of moving up in this race. I see him as a legitimate threat to wire this field.
Race 2:
The first turf race of the meet for the babies is a 5 ½ furlong dash for two year olds. Tolstoy (#2) is the play for Brendan Walsh in this race. Frosted gets 16% debut winners with his turf sprinters. The dam is an unraced daughter of Flintshire, who was a pretty good turf marathon horse. Her most recent work shows to me that she means business. George Weaver sends out Automatic Press (#4), who might be flying under the radar in this spot. It has not been a banner meet for Weaver, but debuting with turf sprinters is one thing that he does quite well. Vekoma is a very good debut sire on the dirt, but he’s done well with a limited sample of debuting turf runners. Randie’s Rascal (#9) is bred for this kind of race, Her dam and her sire were talented turf sprinters overseas.The works aren’t jumping off the page, but Ben Colebrook is capable of winning with his runners at first asking. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him gunning for the front. A deeper tickets play here is the favorite, Through the Years (#3). Wesley Ward trained his full sibling, who was good, but not great. He came up a bit short in his career debut, so I’m wondering if he’ll have the same fate at short odds.
Race 3:
There’s a lot of speed and fade types in this $30K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 6 ½ furlongs. The added half furlong is not going to help the cause for a lot of these ladies. I think Fermi (#7) is an interesting horse that could be closing well in this race. She ran well in her only dirt start at Gulfstream three starts ago. She was stalking a slow pace in that six furlong starter allowance race. She can handle being a little farther off the pace and with the speed signed up for this one, that might be the way to go. Alta Avenue (#6) is another runner that could be on the scene in the late stages. She is dropping in class after a distant 4th place finish in the slop in a contentious starter allowance race here on opening day. Her form has been trending back after dropping off following the David Jacobson claim last fall. His barn has been cold for the better part of the year, but he did have a nice winner here last week, which could be a sign of better things to come. On deeper tickets, I’ll cover with the Wesley Ward favorite, Gracie’s Delight (#8). She may be the speed of the speed while getting back on the dirt at a lower level of competition. She’s been caught late in all of her dirt races, so at short odds, she’s tough for me to get too excited about when going 6 ½ furlongs. However, the class relief will be appreciated.
Race 4:
After an auction maiden special weight race on Sunday oversubscribed, the racing office added a second heat this afternoon at the same condition and seven furlong distance. The four runners that were cross-entered on Sunday did not compete that afternoon. While Neigh Baby (#6) is the favorite in this spot, he feels like a horse that I’d rather use underneath. He’s been knocking on the door at this level, but he keeps coming up a little bit short. He’s based in New York, so I’m not certain if this trip to Lexington was planned or not. He also hasn’t shown a ton of growth. Instead, I’ll try Gentleman Jim (#9) as the top pick in this race. He’s getting back on the dirt after routing on the Tapeta course at Turfway in his last start at this level. He showed improvement on the dirt from his first start to his second start so there’s reason to believe that he can run a winning race against this group today. Kokomo Joe (#80 debuted at this level at Turfway last out and finished a respectable third while getting a little tired in the final stages of that race. He was well clear of the 4th place finisher and he’s one that figures to be fine switching from synthetic to a traditional dirt course. No Politics (#7) is coming out of the same race where he faded badly after showing some early zip. He was the last of six runners in that race and when his last place fate was secure, he was eased up. Michelle Lovell has had more success with runners in their second career start and he’s another one that makes sense on the move to traditional dirt. Yaupon is a hot young sire that has had a lot of success with his one turn horses.
Race 5:
Four year olds and up will go 1 ⅛ miles in this N2X allowance contest on the turf. The $3 All-Turf Pick-3 and the Late Pick-5 will start in this race. Talbingo (#2) is a logical favorite in this race for Brian Lynch. He started his career a perfect 4-4 at Gulfstream, winning three straight races on the synthetic. He was flat when coming back from a 7 ½ month break at Churchill on the dirt. Brian Lynch moved him to the turf this summer at Gulfstream and he seemed to pick right back up where he left off. He scored easily to clear the N1X condition two starts back and he lost by a mere nose when going 7 ½ furlongs in his last start. He’s stretching out, but I don’t see that being an issue. There is hardly any other early speed signed on for this race, and while he’s not typically a pacesetter,he should have no problem making the early lead. From there, I think he can take them all the way while setting slow fractions. He looks too tough for these. I think this is a great spot for him. Mount Rundle (#6) is the backup for me. He was sharp at this level last spring, losing by a neck. He cleared the N1X condition at Churchill in his start before that. When you draw a line through his race in the Grade 3 River City Stakes in the fall at Churchill, he’s been fairly consistent as well. He figures to get a similar trip to the one that he got in his N1X victory. He still might need a start before we see his best though.
Race 6:
The late Pick-4 begins with a maiden special weight race for three year old fillies. This race oversubscribed, so it was split into two divisions with the second heat going as the 8th race today. Overall, I think this field is deeper and there are potentially some very debut prospects in this bunch, however, I’m not sure how many of these ladies are going to thrive at six furlongs on the dirt. I think Mashallah (#1) and Rogue Agent (#4) want more distance. I think it’s quite possible that Episodic (#3) and Cold Spell (#6) will need this start before we see what they’re made of, and I think In Scope (#9) would rather be on the grass. These are five nice fillies, and if someone is taking copious amounts of public money, they’re probably worth paying attention to. However, as it stands, this race is going to be about the second time starters for me. Ruby Regent (#7) debuted at this level on the Tapeta at Turfway on the Jeff Ruby Steaks undercard. She ran very professionally, stalking the pace, and then going to the lead a bit prematurely while wide on the turn. She made the front but was collared by the race winner in the final furlong. The dam has produced horses that have done their best work in one turn sprints on the dirt like this race. I think she’s a sneaky play in this race. Magic Woman (#5) debuted at Oaklawn earlier this month. She was away a bit slow, but she was closing well. She got into third before tiring late to finish 4th. The dam’s first foal to race has done absolutely nothing, but she’s already shown that she’s not on the same plane as that one. Robert Medina owns and trains this daughter of Good Magic. I’ll also use Immortalize (#2) for the Cox and Ortiz machine. She debuted at the Spa in July and she had to deal with Tommy Jo, who went on to win a pair of Grade 1 races after that race. The runner up also came back to break her maiden in her second start. Her dam did her best work on the turf, but she started her career on the dirt and ran okay in those races before finding her calling on the lawn.
Race 7:
Fillies and mares will go 12 furlongs on the turf in this N1X allowance race. The double digit longshots feel like they’re pretty overmatched on paper, so it’s hard for me to envision someone other than Worry Be Gone (#3), Etawa (#4), Ontario (#5), or Tricky KItty (#6) winning this race. I’m not very bullish on the favorite, Worry Be Gone. She was solid when finishing a distant second at this distance on the Tapeta at Turfway last month. She’s never competed on the turf though and while her pedigree suggests that shouldn’t be an issue, I suspect she’s going to be well-backed at the windows. I’m not sure the value will be there with her. I think Etawa makes a lot of sense in this race. She broke her maiden two starts ago on synthetic in Ireland. While she’s never gone this far on the track, she looks like a filly that is a stayer. She came up short in her first stateside start for Mark Casse, but I think that race will serve her well for this one. While she has never won on the turf, her best efforts on the lawn came when traveling over firmer going. Her two dull turf efforts came over soft courses. I think she’ll appreciate the North American turf courses. Ontario could be a threat if she can handle the longer trip. Ben Curtis looked like he had a lot of horse under him last out, but she was buried behind traffic and never really got to run. Irad Ortiz rode her two starts back and he’ll get the assignment once again today. Tricky Kitty was well backed when finishing a distant third in the same synthetic race that Worry Be Gone is coming out of. She ran very well two back when going 10 furlongs, so we’ll have to see if that form can stack up on the grass at 12 furlongs. Just like today, she was the second choice that afternoon. While I think it would be wise to use all four of these runners to some degree, Etawa is the one I want the most of.
Race 8:
The second division of the maiden special weight contest for three year old fillies has a bit of a now or never feel for the favorite, Aegis (#2). She was really good at the Fair Grounds when she came up just short in her last start. The third place finisher from that race came back to win here in a seven furlong race last weekend, so it’s clear she faced a good field. She’s going to be the horse to beat. She does face an interesting first starter though. Pose (#10) is a full sister to the Grade 1 winning mare, Society. That horse came to Keeneland in October and broke her maiden on debut as a two year old. She was a very good race horse who won the Grade 1 Cotillion as a three year old and the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes as a four year old. I wonder if the six furlong trip of this race is going to be a little short for her. However, she is clearly bred to get the job done. I feel like it’s probably pretty safe to roll with this duo.
Race 9:
We’ll close out the card with maiden special weight for fillies and mares going 1 ⅛ miles over the turf course. Peachy Canyon (#11) is the top pick for trainer Lauren Robson. She has visited the Winner’s Circle 6 times in 2026, starting only 14 horses. Her dirt numbers aren’t very good, but her horses do fare well on the turf and the Tapeta. This one came to the States after debuting in Ireland in December. She closed well to get into 3rd, while darting to the inside. She was a little green perhaps, but there is some ability there. Olatz (#3) is also interesting in this race, making her second start off the layoff this afternoon. She ran into a dominant winner when debuting in November of 2024. She was sidelined for over a year before returning this winter at the Fair Grounds. She didn’t have the best of trips, but she showed that she has some ability. This is a tougher group, but I think getting that race under her belt was important. I think she a chance to upset this group at a nice price. American Debutante (#6) makes her first start of the year for Brendan Walsh. She ran well in her first three starts as a three year old last season. She’s starting off as the favorite in a race that is generally wide open. I wouldn’t be surprised if her odds floated up a bit though. She may need this race, but I do think she’s worth using.
2026 Spring Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners: 28/114 (24.6%), $201.12, $1.76 ROI
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
