Closing week begins with an eight races, Wednesday program at Keeneland. The weather is predicted to be very nice for the last three days of racing. First post today is set for 1:00 (EDT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 10 | 5,10 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 4 | 6 | 6,5 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK5,
$3 All-Turf PK3 (R4, R6, R8) |
|
| 5 | 5 | 5,1,3 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 6 | 6 | 6,1,8 | DBL, $3 Late PK3 | ||
| 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | DBL | |
| 8 | 7 | 7,12 | 2,13 |
Race 1:
Closing week begins with a $12,500 starter allowance contest for older horses going seven furlongs. Robertino Diodoro sends out the heavy favorite, Get Her Number (#2). This eight year old gelding has been lights out in his last three starts. Diodoro became the trainer of record after a third place finish at Del Mar in September. He brought him to Remington Park where he posted a 103 Beyer Speed Figure when dominating a beaten $10K claiming field. He backed that effort up with another big effort there in starter allowance company. He had a few months off and shipped to the Fair Grounds. He won a hard fought battle to score in a starter allowance race there as well. His Beyers have been declining since that huge November effort, which seemingly came out of nowhere. He’s an eight year old, so I don’t think he’s going to be this sharp for an extended period of time, and the added furlong certainly complicates matters for him. He;s a backup for me in this spot, because he still might be in good enough form to beat these. However, I think Big Gain (#3) has a decent chance to pull off a mild upset in the opener. He opted out of a race here on Sunday in favor of this spot. He’s put together three solid efforts at Oaklawn since joining Norm Casse’s barn. He faced some strong competition in his last two starts at Oaklawn. He ran into Nu What’s New, who just won the Grade 3 Oaklawn Mile at the end of March. He ran into Publisher in his last start where he finished 5th in the slop. He cuts back in distance and gets significant class relief for this race. I think the seven furlong distance will suit him to a tee.
Race 2:
Two year old fillies will dash 4 ½ furlongs here. Steve Asmussen doesn’t send a ton of horses to Keeneland to debut in these two year old races, but the ones he does bring here are typically ready to fire their best shot. Asmussen has his hands all over Express Success (#10). He trained the dam and all five of her foals. One was a winner on debut and another just missed. Her first five runners were sired by Tapit, but this is the first time the dam has been matched with Gun Runner, another former Asmussen trainee. He gets 23% winners with his two year olds debuting in dirt sprint races. I think she has a shot to beat both of the Wesley Ward horses in this race. Sanchoo (#5) is probably the runner from the Ward barn that has the higher ceiling. She’s sired by Nyquist, who gets 24% winners with two year olds debuting on the dirt. She blew out a three furlong drill here 10 days ago which looked pretty sharp. After winning the first three baby races of the meet, Ward has lost the last few. Irad Ortiz getting the mount feels like a positive signal. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in Jettie’s Beach (#2) for Ben Colebrook. She’s a Charlatan first timer that has been working well in the AM. While she didn’t win at first asking, the dam’s first foal to race has four wins at this distance.
Race 3:
Fillies and mares will dash 6 ½ furlongs in this $25K claiming contest. I like Commanded (#5) a decent bit in this $25K claiming race. She has better dirt form than synthetic form while that trend is reversed for several of her rivals in this spot. She’s getting back on a traditional dirt course after two winter starts against better at Turfway. She ran well on this course when facing a better group in the fall. She gets the class relief that she likely needs and I see her having an edge over her seven rivals here. The backup for me here will be the favorite for Brad Cox, Don’t Say It (#3). She’s made three of 12 career starts on the dirt and all three of them came on sloppy courses. As of the time of publishing this, the forecast looks dry for the last three days of racing. Maybe she’ll be fine with that, but she’s never done it and Cox has made a conscious effort to have her on other surfaces.
Race 4:
Four year olds and up will go 1 1/12 miles over the turf course in this N1X allowance race. The March 7th race at this condition at Gulfstream was a pretty good race and I think both Operation Overlord (#5) and Hall Monitor (#6) ran good races in different ways. They finished second and third, respectively, separated by less than a ½ length. The fact that Operation Overlord is trained by Todd Pletcher and is ridden by Irad Ortiz will keep his price significantly lower than his rival. While I’m expecting a decent differential between their prices, I think they’re evenly matched at this distance. Hall Monitor broke from the outside and was wide going into the first of three turns. He settled off the leaders as the top three scampered away with a quicker second quarter. The field drew closer and he was locked in, looking for a seam as they came off the third turn. He got through after the winner got the jump on him, and he could only get into third. Operation Overlord was equally as impressive since he was pushing the longshot leader up front when the tempo was quickened. He was going 12 furlongs for the first time so he had every reason to throw in the towel, but he was as game as they come, losing only by a neck to a horse that had all of the momentum coming off the final turn. Both horses are eligible to take a step forward, so it will come down to trip. However, I think the value will be better with Hall Monitor A deeper tickets play is My Boy Tony (#1), who is making his first start since September today. This is not an easy assignment off the layoff, but I have no doubt that Eddie Kenneally will have him fit. He just missed in a race at this level and distance last year. I would have preferred for him to get a race in, prior to today’s contest, but at longer odds, he’s one that we know can handle this trip.
Race 5:
The late Pick-4 gets going with a $30K maiden claiming sprint. I landed on Join (#5) in this race for Tom Drury. He drops for a tag for the first time after his two races in maiden allowance company at Turfway. He tried two turns last out and was bumped and shuffled to the back of the pack early. He was slow to find his best stride and he ended up passing some tired runners to get into 7th. The dam has produced some useful runners, including a Grade 3 winner who also won a race on this course. The blinkers go on as he cuts back to one turn. I think he has upside in this race. This feels like a bit of a give up spot for both Editor (#1) and Nanosecond (#3). Both are well-bred runners that haven’t delivered, hence the drop in class to this $30K claiming level. The last effort from Editor wasn’t bad, so he is worth considering, as he races for a tag for the second time. Nanosecond was better in his debut on the dirt, but he fell apart last out on the Tapeta at Gulfstream. He’s getting needed class relief for Todd Pletcher, whose runners are excelling at this meet. I’ll include both in this spot.
Race 6:
Fillies and mares will dash 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in this conditioned allowance race. Pandora’s Gift (#8) is going to be heavily favored while getting back on the turf. She ran competitive races last summer in graded stakes company, and her local races are her best efforts since coming to North America. She’s a definite contender, but it’s fair to point out that she has not won a race since coming to this company. Miguel Clement’s three starters have not fired here as well. She’s going to be on my tickets, but I’m going to use Bourbon Memory (#6), who is getting on the turf for the first time for Brendan Walsh. She won the Serena’s Song Stakes last spring at Turfway, which was her 4th win in as many starts in her career at that point. She was dull on the dirt at Churchill and then she went to the sidelines. She came back at the end of the Turfway Meet where she lost her rider at the break after stumbling. Her Tapeta form was excellent, so I’ll wager that it can translate to the turf. I don’t love the rail for Lovely Emma (#1), but I do like her first two races of 2026. She has a win on the turf and on the dirt this year and those efforts could be a harbinger of things to come for this daughter of Twirling Candy. If she can build of those races, she’ll be tough.
Race 7:
A half dozen fillies and mares will go 6 ½ furlongs in this optional $100K claiming/N3X allowance race. I don’t trust Lynn’s Milky Way (#3) at this distance. She’s struggled to finish those races and she’s been much more effective at six furlongs. Evanescence (#6) won her only start at this distance and it came on this course. She’s been competitive in stakes company, most recently finishing third in the Matron Stakes at Oaklawn. She ran out of room against Haulin Ice, who is an exceptional sprinter who absolutely thrives at Oaklawn. I think that was a really good effort and I love this distance for her. She should be the post time favorite when all is said and done. Beyond Belief (#5) had back to back allowance wins at Gulfstream at seven furlongs, but she struggled a bit in stakes company in her last two starts. She had a tough trip two back in the Inside Information where she finished behind Claret Beret, who has been having a moment lately. She was more competitive last out and I think the drop will help her cause here.
Race 8:
We’ll close things out with a nine furlong maiden special weight race on the turf for three year olds and up. I landed on Lahainaluna (#7), who has an interesting look in this race. The dam sire is Kitten’s Joy, so he might be able to move forward when getting on the grass for the first time. His dirt debut at the Fair Grounds was on the dull side, but he showed more life on the Tapeta in his last start at Turfway. Joe Sharp has good numbers with first time turfers and getting Irad to ride feels impactful. Bull Shoals (#12) ran a big race on debut, but he’ll have to overcome a wide draw in this race to score in his second try. He just missed at huge odds that day. He won’t be anywhere close to that 67-1 number this afternoon. I still think he can back that effort. On deeper tickets, I’ll look to Nyquistador (#2). He’s one of three runners in this race, cutting back in distance. He’s been competing on the Tapeta at Turfway, but now he gets back on the turf. He has a nice post and he’s going to try blinkers for the first time. He showed enough in his turf races as a two year old to play him back on the lawn here.Limited Edition (#13) does feel like a player if he can draw in off the AE list. However, he’s come up just short in races where he’s had a better post. He’s been knocking on the door, but he might be better suited for underneath slots in the vertical wagers.
2026 Spring Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners: 28/114 (24.6%), $201.12, $1.76 ROI
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
