I would be lying if I said I expected to be at a 10+ ROI after day one, but certainly no complaints. As mentioned in the original post, found here https://inthemoneypodcast.com/2019/08/07/carryover-a-year-long-exploration-for-true-value/, I focused on carryover wagers at Gulfstream Park.
Unfortunately, the first play of $138 on the Race 2 Hi 5, also mentioned in the original post, didn’t go as planned. However, I had some luck with the P5 with the following wagers:
You can see from the wagers that I was high on the 6 in the first leg, the 3 in the 2nd leg, and the 5 in the 4th leg. None of the three were ML or post time favorites, and I believe all three went off as second choice. This was actually one of my better handicapping days of recent, and it could have resulted in a massive day if I didn’t have such difficulty finding the 7 in the third leg.
The most challenging part about constructing these tickets, and they are far from perfect, was the idea that I wanted to go ALL in the last. Within one minute of looking at the PPs, I knew I had no opinion in the last. You can come to your own conclusions from looking at the ticket structure, but as many of us are, I was afraid to completely toss the favorites. It would have been a great day to do it, as my top picks were mostly right. However, as I mentioned in the original post, playing carryover wagers adds a little freedom to worry slightly less about value, as the carryover money has already created the value. To me, there is nothing more counter-intuitive than wagering on horses that you don’t think have the highest chance of winning, all because they present value. Carryovers eliminate that mind-game for me.
My first pass through the first leg left me with 1,5,6 and 7, and I was having a very difficult time differentiating between the four. I finally landed on the 6 as my top choice based on fractional times, from previous races at the distance, compared to the other runners.
In the 2nd leg, there appeared to be plenty of speed. #5, the ML favorite, didn’t look to benefit from the potential fast pace, while 3 and 4 would. #3 appeared to have the best recent form, while #4 had finished ahead of #3 previously. I weighted my tickets to include #3 the most, #4 second, and #5 third. Again, not the best value play, but was sure this would get me through the leg, which is worth a lot in these scenarios.
The 3rd leg I struggled with a bit, and admittedly fell back to the favorites due to figures. I wasn’t convinced the 7 could take 5F form to longer distances, but knew there was a danger there and couldn’t completely exclude. I was fortunate to include on my main ticket. I also had a small piece of the 8 on one ticket. Again, weighted 2,9 first on all $3.50, 7 on $1 worth, and 8 on $.50.
The 4th leg looked like 5 gate to wire, which was the ultimate result, and I’m a bit disappointed in myself for feeling the need to add the 1 in many tickets. I know pace and race shape is an old trick for most players, but I still think it is the best and most consistent handicapping tool in the bag.
During the 4th leg, I also quasi-hedged with a P5 that had a carryover from the 8th race. Here are the tickets I had:
If you watched race 9, the 4th leg, you know the 8 was closing on the 5 down the stretch. Watching it, I was sure glad to have these punched. If the 8 wins, the Hi 5 probably pays a bit more than the $1,044 that it ended up paying. Again, you’ll see that at this point, I somehow felt the need to have the 1 ahead of the 5 in multiple tickets. Don’t ask me why, I need to stick to my opinions and not let the tote board sway me.
At this point, I knew I had a winning ticket. I was alive to 3 and 4 for $1 and the rest for $0.50. My possible overall 5/5 return ranged from $2,700 to around $5,000. There’s no better feeling than seeing some long shots make a run when alive to ALL.
In the original post I mentioned wanting to track base payout without carryover and ROI without carryover. I may need to let those two go, as it is proving very time consuming to calculate due to payout to 4/5 in the P5.
Overall, here’s how day 1 ended. Take a look at the effective takeout!! If the percentage is listed as a positive value, the money paid out to the players was more than the new money bet into the pool. The R2 Hi 5 and the P5 both had a player edge. In other words, free money added to all winning tickets, instead of a huge chunk taken out.
8/12/19 – Effective Takeout below updated/corrected since original post
|Bet-Type||Wager||Return||ROI||Carryover||Total Pool||Effective Takeout|
Good luck to everyone playing today! There’s a $8,920 P5 carryover at Arlington today; I see no better way to warm up for Arlington Million Day…as long as the pool stays small enough to make the carryover meaningful.