Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_
Most Likely Winner: Race 5- (3) ROCK BREAK
Race 1: (2) GYPSUM JOHNNY is clearly the one to beat on speed figures; the only possible knocks here is that he starts for a new barn tonight (albeit one hitting at 50% off the claim) and that he has to tackle a three-turn 8.5 furlong contest for the first time. If he doesn’t take well to the configuration, the obvious choice to beat him is (6) THE WAYNE FACTOR who towers over the rest of field sans the favorite. While he is 0-for-15 at the distance, he does have plenty of minor placings at the distance and may have just found the right field to get a victory against. (5) SET’EM UP JOE has been in poor form lately, but he stretches back out to a distance he has had plenty of success at in the past, which could help his chances here.
Picks: 2-6-5
Race 2: (1) AFANDI looks to be the early controlling speed here and she draws nicely with the rail. The only concern is that she is 0-for-14 lifetime and has given up easy leads in the past- be cautious taking her at too short of a price. (3) SENSE OF MUSIC put in a solid effort on the stretch out last time out and she gets a slight drop in class here today- a serious contender to upset the top choice. (5) URKILLINGMEBETH has hit the board in both of her Charles Town efforts in her brief career and she should be close up early on the stretch out.
Picks: 1-3-5
Race 3: (1) RHYTHM TREE has been facing much tougher on the Kentucky circuit and should appreciate the significant drop in competition here tonight- the only knock is that 6.5 furlongs may just be a tad short for her, but her class still could get her across the line in first. (4) KINKY FROLIC remains a maiden despite some very strong races; unfortunately, she’s run into some strong foes and had to settle for second-best several times recently- tonight may prove to be another of those times. (3) MISS BEE HIVING was a distant third last time out on debut, but she is liable to improve second time out and does draw nicely here as well.
Picks: 1-4-3
Race 4: (4) TAKE ME HOME comes out of a decent race speed figure wise at Pimlico despite finishing second in the match race. Prior to that, she was a winner at this level at Charles Town and will look for the repeat tonight and should get it with a similar effort to her last two. (9) AZZURRA comes off of three wins in a row, albeit against slightly softer. She has a chance here tonight, but, like in her last race, she will have to work out a trip from the outside draw. (8) LAVELLO is really up against here tonight and she would need to make a big improvement from her last race to hit the board, but she could be worth a try at a huge price in exotics- it’s promising to see the trainer turn her around to face winner’s on just six days rest, she must be sharp right now.
Picks: 4-9-8
Race 5: (3) ROCK BREAK is the rare last out maiden winner that doesn’t really need to improve to win here. A similar effort to his last out win should put him right back in the winner’s circle- if he breaks on top, it’s likely race over from there. (7) STRONG SAFETY will probably be the second quickest out of the gate and could possibly hold on here to get a slice at a price. (6) THE ILLUSIONIST hasn’t shown much in his last two, but he does get a significant drop in class here, which should help his chances. Nonetheless, there is a potential danger he burns money again here.
Picks: 3-7-6
Race 6: (4) SHESAUPTOWNGIRL ender up extremely wide last time out against similar and still only lost by 3/4 of a length. She draws better tonight and should be able to get a more ground-saving trip here, which could be the difference between not winning last time out and winning here. (2) GOT YOUR NUMBER does come off of a stakes placing and should be respected here, but she is likely to be over bet based on her most recent effort. (6) TIZ EVAN’S HONEY had a tough time of it last time out, dueling on the front end before weakening late. Expect tonight that she may be a little more reserved off of the early pace and try to come with a run late.
Picks: 4-2-6
Race 7: (1) REMYS SHOWTIME is strictly the one to beat here; he draws beautifully, should go right to the lead, and look to take them all the way from there at a short price. (2) CHARITABLE VISIT is likely to drop far off the pace early, but there is the potential for a quick pace up ahead for him to close into at a big price. He does take on tougher company tonight, but he has the speed figures to contend here. (5) TWOBITSARIDE seemed to take the stretch out well last time out and he now moves into a 33% barn at Charles Town that is hitting at 18% with first time starters for the stable.
Picks: 1-2-5
Race 8: (3) MISS OREILEY has never been able to dictate terms on the front end in a race yet, but she could get the chance here in a race without much early speed. She could show a new dimension from the front end and is worth a try at 8-1 on the morning line. (9) FULLMOON BAY has top connections, but remains a maiden despite being favored in several tries. Could burn money again here and probably not the one you want to be on as the favorite, but a serious contender nonetheless. (2) K K CAN has shown good works in preparation for the debut and could be a live runner here against a pretty weak field.
Picks: 3-9-2
