Churchill Downs Racing Preview – 5/14/21 – By Eric Solomon

The Friday card features some strong turf races and some decent opportunities to play against some favorites that I see as vulnerable. The late sequences have the potential to pay out nicely. There’s also a two year old maiden special weight race in the middle of the card that looks very deep.

Race 1: Top Pick: 3

We have a decent $20K starter allowance to kick off the Friday program. Four of the seven entered last raced at Oaklawn, and the other three last raced at Keeneland. I’m going to side against the three Keeneland horses here, as I think Super Sol (6), who will likely be the shortest price of this trio, beat a softer group last out at this level, and has struggled to put two good races together. Jungle Juice (7) is a mare taking on the boys, after beating fillies and mares at this condition last out. She ran a big race, but I think this field is stronger, and the presence of Buttered Noodles (2) as another dedicated frontrunner, doesn’t help her chances. I’m going to take P R Radio Star (3) on top in hopes that returning to Churchill and stretching out a bit will help him revert back to his better form from 2020. His two races at Oaklawn weren’t awful, especially his last at 5 and ½ Furlongs where he rallied and finished well despite some traffic issues. Four starts back, he was a close second to graded stakes winner, Independence Hall at Del Mar going 6 and ½ Furlongs. I think the distance will suit him well, despite the 0-2 record at 7 Furlongs. Both 7 Furlong races in his career came in stakes company, and one of them was at Arlington on polytrack, so I don’t hold those efforts against him. I think he gets the trip as he sits off the early leaders, and gets first run on the closers. Bode’s Maker (4) is the likely and deserving favorite, after winning three straight races at two turns at Oaklawn. He ships back to Louisville for the first time since 2019. He is winless in three tries on this oval, but I think the bigger question mark with this one is if he’ll be able to maintain his excellent form while cutting back to one turn. Only four of his 33 career starts have come at one turn, and the last time was here in 2018. His lone win at this distance was a 6 length romp, but that came at Delta Downs going two turns. He is very consistent, and no one has been in better form. I’ll use him, but I think the distance is enough of a question mark that there’s value in trying to beat him. On deeper tickets, I’ll try Hurricane Highway (1) since he is a horse that looks like he may appreciate this distance. He lost in a photo in the Forego Stakes on the Tapeta surface three starts back at Turfway. He is a better horse on synthetic than on the dirt, but he still is capable on the main track. All four of his dirt races has been at shorter distances, but many of his better races on synthetic have come going 6 and ½ Furlongs or the one turn mile at Arlington.

Race 2: Top Pick: 6

There’s another field of seven assembled for this $10K maiden claiming contest. This race feels a little bit like a crapshoot, as there’s a pair of high priced horses that have plunged to this level, one that hasn’t started in 17 months and drops from maiden special weight, two that haven’t been fast enough for this circuit, and two modest first time starters. Grand Design (6) is the one to beat here coming from the Tom Amoss barn. He was claimed for $15K two back at the Fair Grounds. He tried maiden special weight company at Delta and was beaten by seven lengths. His two best speed figures have been at two turn races on this course. Texas Playboy (5) plummets after showing some speed and fading in his first start off the layoff at Keeneland last out. He was facing a stronger group of $50K maiden claimers and now runs here, despite being purchased for $130K. I never love betting horses like this, but this is a soft group. Family Man (4) debuts after a series of consistent drills at a smaller training center. There’s not a lot of comparison works to see how those works stack up, but Tyler Gaffalione takes the mount, which is a positive in this race.

Race 3: Top Pick: 1

Despite the optional $100K tag, all five three year old fillies here have entered under the N3L allowance condition. Three are exiting tries in graded stakes company, while the other two are working through their allowance conditions. Moon Swag (1) has been keeping the best company of the group, finishing behind the likes of Malathaat, Travel Column, and Clairiere in recent efforts. She is clearly a cut below those fillies, but she was never embarrassed in any of those efforts. I think she can sit a good stalking trip in this race and come with a late run, passing some of the stretch out sprinters in this spot. Sylvia Q (2) is likely the main threat to the top choice. She finished three lengths in front of Battle Bling (3) two back before trying stakes company in the Fantasy at Oaklawn last month. She was never really involved in that race but she fits better at this level. Her chances her may be dependent on what pace scenario materializes with My Girl Red (4) and Lovely Ride (5) entered. Both have been forwardly placed in sprint races, but are both trying two turns for the first time. If they push the pace too much, that may not be ideal for Sylvia Q. If they sit off the early lead, and concede that position to her, she becomes much more of threat in this small field.

Race 4: Top Pick: 5

I think this N1X runs through Fair Grounds invader, All Fact (5), as she gets back on the grass after competing in two straight off the turf races. She’s been beating up on starter allowance foes, in admittedly, some softer competition, however, it’s the way she’s been handling her business that stands out to me. She dominated those last three turf races, winning each race by open margins. This is definitely stiffer company, but she’s in great form and should be able to hold her own with these. Taranta (6) makes her four year old debut after three solid grass tries in North America. She just missed at this level at Louisiana Downs in June. She shipped north to run 5^th to a quality filly, Witez, at Saratoga. She took a step back in August, but went on the shelf after that effort. Eric Reed takes over the training, and he has good numbers when running a horse for the first time as well as off the layoff. Lake Lucerne (8) is the morning line favorite and a beautifully bred daughter of Dubawi. Her dam is the Grade 1 winner filly, Round Pond, so you’d think she might be okay on the main track. Her first and only start in North America came in February, where she was flying late to get into 4^th. Leparoux will likely want to try to have her closer here. On deeper tickets, you’re getting good value on Hat Tip (1) on the morning line. She was 3-1 last out when Hey Kitten (2) ran a monster race out of nowhere, while going off at 14-1. Hat Tip is 8-1 today, and the more consistent of this duo, and Hey Kitten is listed at 9-2. Hey Kitten was better last time, but I think Hat Tip is better overall.

Race 5: Top Pick: 7

We had a good maiden special weight for two year old fillies yesterday and this looks like a good race for the colts and geldings. I think the trio on the outside all look formidable in here. Tejano Twist (7) gets the call in a race that looks like a spread race to me. He closed well to be a close second to a Wesley Ward horse at Keeneland on debut. This son of Practical Joke is out of a Cuvee mare, so there’s definitely speed and precocity in his pedigree. Calhoun’s horses have been running well at the meet and they typically improve in their second career start. Hit It a Bomb has been a useful sire on both surfaces, and he’s sired Tiz The Bomb (8) making his debut for McPeek. Phoenix Thoroughbred paid $330K for him last year, and he’s been on the work tab since March. Brian Hernandez, has won with 20% of the horses he’s ridden for McPeek at the track, which is higher than both of their individual win percentages over that period. Baby Quinn (9) has a speed oriented pedigree, sired by Kantharos out of a Distorted Humor mare. Brad Cox doesn’t do great with first time starters, as his horses are usually more dangerous in their second start. However, I like the far outside draw, along with his solid and consistent work tab. Asmussen and Gaffalione don’t team up much, but they will work together with Heaven Street (3) in his career debut today. His last two works have been sharp, going 47:4 two weeks ago and 47:1 last week at Keeneland. He’s another one with a live shot in this race. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Just Call Ray (1) who has been very sharp in the AM for Norm Casse. He doesn’t do great with his first time starters, (although he won with Ontheonesandtwos on debut yesterday) and I don’t love the rail draw for this son of freshman sire Mohaymen. I’d like to get better than the 5-1 on the morning line for me to consider playing him more aggressively.

Race 6: Top Pick: 2

There are two short prices in this six horse maiden special weight race, however, I think this field is closer in ability than the morning line odds suggest. Two horses in here are stretching out to two turns for the first time today, and both are coming out of a very strong maiden special weight at Keeneland in the slop last month. I’ll play Cronus (2) on top after rallying late to get third last time behind Stage Raider, who ran a monster race to break his maiden. Cronus has two solid starts in sprints, and now progresses to 1 Mile and 1/16, which, as a son of Constitution and a Malibu Moon mare, should be to his liking. I like his value on the morning line at 10-1, and will play him near that number. Derby Horse (6) was 4^th in the same race that Cronus was in, when making his career debut for Michael Tomlinson. He was dismissed in the wagering, going off at 53-1 that day. He passed some horses late after a slow beginning, and made his way into the bottom of the superfecta. He’ll be a horse that should also appreciate two turns, being sired by Candy Ride out of a Sky Mesa mare. Both American Law (3) and Southern District (5) are the short priced favorites in here, and both are live, however, I don’t think either is a slam dunk. American Law was second to Ghazaaly last out in a 9 Furlong maiden special weight race on the dirt at Keeneland. His rival got away with slow fractions that day and had a very easy front running trip, making it hard for him to gain any real ground. He’s another son of Constitution that is steadily improving for Danny Gargan. Southern District has two starts, both on turf for Chad Brown. His pedigree definitely leans dirt, so I’m not surprised to see his connections taking a chance here. However, 9-5 is the morning line figure, and I’d assume he’ll be around that price at post time. To me, that’s too short on horse trying something new. If the odds float up, he’ll be more enticing, but regardless, he is a threat and should be included on some of the horizontal tickets as well.

Race 7: Top Pick: 11 (AE, 2 if that one is scratched)

The feature today is a stakes quality optional $80K claiming/N3X allowance race for fillies and mares at one mile on the turf. None of the 14 entered (10 will run) are entered for the tag though, so this is essentially an N3X allowance race. I like two horses on the AE list quite a bit here, with Merveilleux (11) and Sister Hanan (14). Merveilleux will be my top pick if she draws in to make her four year old debut. She was a very good horse at Woodbine last year getting close in the Grade 3 Selene and finishing third in the Woodbine Oaks. She tried the Queens Plate, and finished midpack, but ended her season with two impressive wins with Ontario breds. I loved her race in the Wonder Where Stakes two back, which was her only start on the grass last year (every other start came on synthetic). She powered to the front and beat a good field that by open lengths. I think she’s better on the grass than on synthetic, and she could be a major threat in here if she gets to run. Winter Sunset (2) will default to my top pick if Merveilleux is scratched. She was very good with another strong field last month a Keeneland, getting nailed on the wire by Daddy Is A Legend, who is a better horse than what’s she facing here. She had a pace advantage of being lone speed that day, but there’s some more speed signed on today. I like her versatility here, as she is definitely not a one trick pony, and can adapt to different pace scenarios. She is bred to be a good one, being sired by Tapit of and foaled by Grade 1 winning turfer, Winter Memories. Her grand dam is Grade 1 winning turf star, Memories of Silver, who was one of my favorite horses on the NYRA circuit in the late 90’s. Sister Hanan will need a lot of help to get into this race, but she is dangerous on the cut back in distance if she does participate. She gets some class relief after battling hard in Grade 3 company in three turf races at Gulfstream, all at longer distances. She has proven to be effective at 1 Mile and 1 Mile and 1/16 distances though, and has some nice efforts on this course. Hendy Woods (3) is the morning line favorite, after showing some solid improvement as a three year old last year. She makes her four year old debut this afternoon. I don’t love her as the favorite, as I think she may need this race before she’s at her best, however she’s graded stakes placed on the course and distance, finishing second to G1 winner Sharing last September. How Ironic (9) cleared the N2X level at Keeneland on April 22^nd, rallying to beat 11 rivals going 1 Mile and 3/16. I worry that the mile might be a little short her, but she has been sharp of late and is another live one here.

Race 8: Top Pick: 6

This is another spot, where I think there’s more value, at least on the morning line, with some of the longer priced horses. I think there’s a lot of speed in here, and the two favorites Petit Verdot (4) and Valiant Vinny (8) have the most. Both are one run horses that are want to go hard early on. Of the two, I prefer Valiant Vinny, as I think he’s been facing better horses and running more consistent efforts. I’ll use him conservatively, but leave Petit Verdot off my tickets, as I think the pace scenario sets things up for some others. I’ll take a shot with J C’s Champ (6) trying the dirt for the first time for high percentage trainer, Aaron West. He ran a strong race, stalking the pace and circling the field to break his maiden at Turfway three starts back. He’s been overmatched with better horses in his last two on synthetic and turf. He tries dirt for the first time, which I would think, based on pedigree, is where he’d run his best races. Sir Giannis (2) is also dangerous, despite moving to open claiming, after failing to hit the board in the slop with $50K N2L claimers last out. He showed an ability to win from off the pace when rallying to break his maiden at the $30K maiden claiming level at the Fair Grounds. He ranged up before flattening out in the slop here on opening night, when facing winners for the first time. The race could certainly set up for a closer, and I think he has shown the ability to run well late.

Race 9: Top Pick: 3

The nightcap is a solid N1X allowance race for fillies and mares on the grass. After a few races in this sequence where I think the favorites are vulnerable, I think this race might be a more formful race. Take Charge Ro (3) looked loaded in the stretch here on 4/27, when facing a stronger field for the condition. She was blocked and had to settle for 5^th, beaten less than 2 lengths that day. She’s now in her second race off the layoff and she finds a field where she should be able to sit a little closer to the pace. She’s in her second race off the layoff for Brian Lynch, which has been a strong angle for his horses. I like her chances a lot this afternoon. Margaret’s Joy (4) is dropping in class and cutting back in distance this afternoon after running a pair of races at 12 Furlongs on the turf. She was well beaten in Grade 3 company last out, but finished a close up third two starts back at Gulfstream. She is capable at shorter distances as well, and has been keeping good company. On deeper tickets, Sunset Kiss (2), in her second North American start, may have some upside. She was bothered a bit at the break last out and finished a non-threatening 6^th at this level at Gulfstream in March. Attfield has given her a little time to regroup, and return. Normally, she’d likely be running at Woodbine, as most of Attfield’s horses do this time of year, and her synthetic races overseas are better than her turf races. However, since that is not an option, a race like this plan B. She’s bred to like the turf and I do think she has more upside than some of the other longer priced horses in here.