GP Race 10, Leg 1: 3,4,8
I’m expecting #9 Instant Coffee (5/2) to take all the money in this race. He is very well-known as he had success on the Derby Trail last year, soundly beating Two Phil’s in the Lecomte before throwing in a dud in the Louisiana Derby and hitting the bench. With any progression he can make plenty of noise in this race. However I have enough questions to exclude him completely. The layoff is obviously a major question, but this is also a brutal post. This guy has never possessed much early speed, there’s a short run to the first turn, and two speed horses drawn directly to his outside. He’s going to have a very difficult time getting any tactical position going into the first turn and I don’t like his chances closing from last over this racetrack, especially with the short stretch. And finally I’m confused why Brittany Russell has taken over the training. She’s more than capable of training a good one, but it’s curious that Cox is no longer training a horse that not that long ago was among the short list of Derby favorites and exuded potential. I’ll take my chances against him.
#4 Lure Him In (6-1) is the one to beat based on his most recent victory in the Sunshine Classic. The heavy favorite that day got away with an uncontested lead and yet Lure Him In was able to close from the back of the pack and duel that foe into submission in the final furlong. Super effort as those two ran away from the rest of the field and the 97 Beyer he earned that day towers over the rest of this group. If he can repeat that race, or even the victory three back, he can win this at a price.
#8 Classic Car Wash (10-1) should be forwardly placed on the stretch-out. He earned a big number over this track in October, but also wasn’t disgraced in his last two efforts against some pretty salty allowance groups while sprinting. The effort against Tapit Trice in last year’s Tampa Bay Derby leaps off the page and suggests the return to routing should not be a problem. The recent bullet work suggests he’s ready to fire a big one for Mark Casse. #3 Dai Vernon (3-1) will also be on my tickets. Huge improvement last November when going out for Bill Mott for the first time and this expensive four year old still has plenty of upside. Like Instant Coffee, I’m a little concerned he’ll have too much to do when turning for home, but at least he was more tactical last time and drew an inside post.
GP Race 11, Leg 2: 2,5
The two favorites should be tough in the Royal Delta and I’ll be using both to try and advance. #2 Maryquitecontrary (7/2) wheels back in just three weeks after a “disappointing” effort on Pegasus day. She finished third as the favorite, but she actually ran her usual 90-range speed figure, but was just beaten by a couple of rivals that were faster on the day. She’s never gone two turns before, but she is bred to handle it, and she’s always done well going a one-turn mile which is arguably a more demanding test. There is plenty of pace to set it up for her, and she drew a good inside post that will come in handy with the short run into the first turn.
#5 Tizzy in the Sky (2-1) returns from a brief freshening and should be prominent throughout. She’s clearly better around two turns so I’m willing to forgive her latest effort where she regressed on speed figures (may not have cared for off track too). She’s reportedly trained phenomenally since arriving in South Florida so I’m expecting her to get back to those races two and three back that would be good enough to beat these rivals.
SA Race 5, Leg 3: 7
I’m all in on #7 Tahini (5-1) in the third leg. I watched her debut race live and tabbed her as one I wanted to keep an eye on moving forward. She was a massive price that day against what appeared to be a promising group of three year old fillies, and not much was expected of her since Papaprodromou is notorious for giving his young runners at least a start or two before they hit their stride. She broke well enough and sat mid-pack off a hot pace. She then made a big move into contention as they turned for home and for a second I thought she had a chance to post a massive upset. She ultimately flattened out in the final furlong, but there was no shame in finishing behind Kinza, who could very well be the fastest three year old filly in the country.
Her second start was pretty similar where she hooked to the outside in the stretch and loomed dangerously, but just ran in place to the finish line. She strikes me as a filly that should excel around two turns, and she is bred to handle the grass all day. Top turf jockey Rispoli picks up the mount for today’s race and I would expect her to be forwardly placed throughout in a field that doesn’t contain much early pace. Let’s try to get some separation in this sequence with a 5-1 single in Tahini.
GP Race 9, Leg 4: 1,5,6
Tough race to close out the Gulfstream card, we have a full field of eleven going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. Based on the PP’s, I’d be surprised if they fly on the front end early so I want to upgrade horses that will be forward. #6 Stern Chaser (15-1) will be my top pick in this spot. She basically just ran evenly around the racetrack last time, but she should appreciate getting back to the turf where she’s earned speed figures in the past that give her a big look. She was further back than usual in that race and since those tactics were unsuccessful, I would expect Zayas to put her on or near the lead throughout this one. It’s also worth noting that she’s always improved significantly in her second start off a layoff. Today will be her second effort off a brief freshening, and it’s not like she ran that poorly last time either, bombs away?
#5 Perhaps Tonight (2-1) is the one to beat and is a must-use as well. She’s the one they’ll have to hold off late as she’s got a big turn of foot and will get a good ride under Irad. I want to upgrade her last race where she was the only runner to make up any ground in the lane and did well to only lose by three quarters of a length. Her turf form prior to that is excellent with several nice efforts at Woodbine last summer and respectable showing at Churchill against significantly tougher. I would expect a step forward in her second start in Florida for Drexler. And finally #1 No Valla (20-1) is another who could be a threat if she’s able to control the race. The veteran mare might be a tad slow on speed figures, but there’s a really good chance she’ll get a great trip at a massive price so I need to include her as well.
SA Race 7, Leg 5: 3,7
#7 Charge For Gold (6-1) will be my top pick in the pay-leg. I think there’s a good chance he’ll provide tremendous value since he’s going out for low-profile connections and got away with a soft pace last time. But all his races before that caught my eye. He ran great in his debut when he won with a three wide pressing trip (tough to do at Del Mar) and ran away from the field in the final stages. Not sure how good that field was, but he did everything the right way and galloped out well. The Speakeasy was a total throwout as he was forced to take up multiple times in that race and wasn’t persevered with in the stretch. Yet he still split the field and galloped out well. Finally, in the Cecil B DeMille Stakes he was a massive longshot going two turns and dueled through sizzling fractions and then faced another challenge while heading into the far turn. He shook off both of those rivals (both were beaten several lengths) and did well to battle to deep stretch to only lose by a couple lengths. He should be dead-fit cutting back to one turn and drew an excellent outside post for this downhill configuration. Love the consistent progression on speed figures with each and every race so I believe this guy is a must-use in the sequence and is probably worth a win-bet too.
I couldn’t quite single Charge for Gold though because #3 Stay Hot (5/2) comes into this race with excellent form. This reportedly is not the target race for Stay Hot, but it may not matter. He ran a super race three back on this turf course where he smashed a good group of next-out winners that included Coach Prime and a Guy Named Joe. Toss the Breeders Cup race where he was simply overmatched, but he came back at Del Mar and won again with a furious late rally. I’m not sure if that cutback necessarily helps his cause, but he is talented, and it’s worth noting that Eurton won three grass races on Friday.
Ticket:
GP 10: 3,4,8
GP 11: 2,5
SA 5: 7
GP 12: 1,5,6
SA 7: 3,7
$36
