It’s a bittersweet day as we close the books on another year at Colonial Downs. On one hand, I’m sad to see the racing in my home state come to an end for 2025, but I’m proud of the content we delivered covering this track throughout the year. We’ve had some major highlights starting with nabbing American Promise as the top choice in the Virginia Derby back in March to sweeping our highlight plays and cold-decking a $100 LP3 back on 8/15. Overall, the featured plays we’re once again profitable this year and our bottom-line shows that it pays to be disciplined and only accept fair odds on your selections. Once more unto the breach!
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Selections
- Race 1: 2-10-5-1
- Race 2: 8-1-3-7
- Race 3: 1-6-7-8
- Race 4: 9-7-2-1
- Race 5: 1-2-8-6
- Race 6: 3-4-7-10
- Race 7: 9-3-1-8
- Race 8: 6-5-3-2
- Race 9: 2-1-8-4
- Race 10: 10-3-8-2
Colonial Downs Race 1: Suzies Pride (#2) at 6-1 or higher
There’s a good argument to be made that American Kestrel (#10) might prove too tough for these as she was narrowly defeated earlier in the meet in a tough race for this level after setting a blistering pace. However, she might not get the lead here as this will be her first time sprinting and she’ll be no bargain at the windows. Rancho Vista (#5) is an interesting alternative given she’s getting back to the grass for the first time since her second career start and she’s likely ot have grown up as this is essentially her first start at 3. However, my top selection is going to be Suzies Pride (#2) who definitely needed that start off the layoff last time. I think it’s interesting the connections wheel her back in nine days, but a return to sprinting is exactly what she needs. There’s obviously some talent yet to be unlocked in the afternoon based on the couple of blistering works she has on her page and the fact she took so much money as a juvenile for low-profile connections.
Colonial Downs Race 3: Deadpan (#1) at 5-2 or higher
The final dirt race for the meet features a couple horses vying for favoritism that have questions to answer. Blue Kingdom (#7) was super impressive last time out with a blowout win vs $30k N2L company, but now he must step up in class to this starter allowance and prove he can reproduce that effort for a new barn. Two’s a Crowd (#6) certainly has races on the go-back that would crush this field, but he’s returning off a 8+ month layoff following two dismal efforts. My top pick is Deadpan (#1) as I still believe this gelding is best on dirt. His dirt debut was an excellent effort in an N1X on the Virginia Derby undercard making a wide bid before being run down late. I like him getting back to the one-turn configuration as that’s where he’s run his best two dirt races including a wire-to-wire win over this track earlier this meet. I’m hoping the lower-profile trainer can allow him to go off above fair odds.
Colonial Downs Race 10: Fly Commander (#10) At 7-1 or higher
The favorite in this meet’s curtain call is likely to be Gramps (#3) as he once again drops in class and switches surfaces back to the turf. I’m concerned how little he showed in his debut and only grass start and went looking for an alternative. The interesting firster is Hiding in Honduras (#2) as this gelding is out of the really nice NY-Bred mare La Moneda making him a half-brother to stakes winner Cameo Performance. While initially I’m concerned that this well-bred Jonathan Thomas trainee is debuting for $16k, a closer look at his trainer stats reveals a 18/42 (43%, $2.40 ROI) with 3+ FTS in maiden claimers on turf. The other logical alternative is Mr On High (#8) who had the lightbulb come on in his turf debut making a 3-wide blitz around the turn before flattening out in the lane. It’s worth noting that the 3rd place finisher from that event came back to win next out. However, my top pick to close the meet is Fly Commander (#10). The drawbacks are pretty obvious on this gelding as he has an 0/13 record and drew a disadvantageous post. However, I find it interesting that this will be his first time trying a turf route. A few of his siblings were best going a route of ground including Kartano and If You Want It who both banked six-figures in their careers and sire Higher Power’s crowing achievement was a win in the 10f Pacific Classic.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 9/6)
All
Top Picks: 190-50-44-29 (26%, $1.81); Featured Horses: 59-11-12-15 (19%, $2.05)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 117-24-28-16 (21%, $1.91); Featured Horses: 46-9-10-10 (20%, $2.35)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 44%; B’s: 35%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%
