The calendar turns to August which means the Arlington Million is just around the corner. However, first we’ve got a couple cards at Colonial Downs this weekend worthy of tackling beginning with the races on this Friday conducted as part of a twilight 4pm first post.
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Selections
- Race 1: 1-5-3-2
- Race 2: 1-3-5-6
- Race 3: 6-10-3-7
- Race 4: 8-2-3-1
- Race 5: 2-5-11-9
- Race 6: 9-1-10-5
- Race 7: 5-9-2-3
- Race 8: 7-4-11-3
Colonial Downs Race 1: Don’t Ghost Me (#1) at 1-1 or higher
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Don’t Ghost Me (#1) in the lid-lifter and view him as the most likely winner on the card. In his first start on dirt and first start as a 3YO he nearly broke his maiden while drowning the other speeds in the race. He and the eventual winner pulled over five lengths clear over third-place finisher Flick (#5) who was just picking up pieces late. The only thorn in his side is the presence of Mike’s Magic (#4) who also possesses a ton of speed, but I believe Julio Hernandez can let that one go and settle off his flank before pouncing in the lane. I find it interesting that Julio shows up for this mount given the fact he only is riding two races on the card signaling he wants to make this trip to Colonial worth the drive.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Gotta Have a Guy (#9) at 6-1 or higher and/or Rector (#1) at 4-1 or higher
Another competitive race with a full field to kick off the late pick three as VA-Restricted N2L claimers go a mile on the grass. Lothario (#10) is the most likely winner in the field coming off a narrow defeat over course and distance at this level three weeks ago. The Nagle barn is potent over the Colonial turf course and Ruiz chooses this mount despite having options, but I do worry somewhat about this wide draw for a horse that likes to stalk the pace. I’m really interested in both Madison Meyers entrants in this spot especially given they have complimentary running styles. Rector (#1) should be able to blast off to the lead from that inside draw and is certainly dangerous to wire this group. He’s had excuses for all three starts this year as he was rank then wide against tougher in his first two starts and last time got burnt up in a suicidal speed duel. If Rosado is able to settle him down in the early stages, he can go gate-to-wire like he did breaking his maiden at this distance last fall. I’m equally interested in Madison’s other trainee Gotta Have a Guy (#9) who makes his first start as a 3YO. This portends there should be some improvement over the 2YO form which was pretty encouraging. He won his maiden over the course and distance in September and connections thought highly enough to try much tougher company in his final two starts of the year. While both were disastrous efforts due to less than ideal trips, he’s been given time off to grow up and can make noise in this cheap claimer if fit enough.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Habana Boy (#7) at 4-1 or higher
The Friday finale looks wide-open as a field of 10 maiden claimers are set to contest this turf sprint. This race becomes super bet-able, given the presence of Band Tour (#5) as the ML favorite. I don’t see the case for this horse at all as the WV-Bred is 0/25 in his career with the only positive being the services of Paco Lopez in the irons. Within the body of the race, I’d concede that Mamba Mindset (#4) is the most likely winner given that his one turf start was the best finish of his career and could get a nice trip in the pocket for this start. However, I think he’ll be bet down significantly from his 6-1 ML and want to demand more value in this competitive affair. I landed on Habana Boy (#7) as the top pick in this spot hoping that he can lead this field on a merry chase. This colt certainly has an abundance of early zip and I’m hoping the switch to grass will allow him to see out the trip. While Adios Charlie isn’t exactly a positive influence as a turf sire, his dam Morena Mia raced primarily over the grass. It’s not ideal that the barn is 1/30 this meet, but that will ensure we get a price well above the fair value line.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 7/26)
All
Top Picks: 65-15-14-8 (23%, $1.51); Featured Horses: 20-4-4-4 (20%, $1.88)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 35-5-9-4 (13%, $1.20); Featured Horses: 12-2-3-2 (17%, $2.07)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 39%; B’s: 40%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%
