I have very fond memories of attending the Virginia Derby and Oaks during high school back when the VA Derby was part of the now defunct “Grand Slam of Grass.” While those races’ names has transitioned to Kentucky Derby and Oaks preps in mid-March, their spirit lives on in the form of the Old Dominion Derby and Oaks contested Saturday afternoon on a card that includes an all-stakes pick 6. You can get my thoughts an all those races in more detail over on the In The Money Media YouTube channel where I recorded a video with Mike Pribozie.
Follow me on Twitter: @mdomhokie
Selections
- Race 1: 8-3-7-6
- Race 2: 1-5-8-7
- Race 3: 2-5-3-4
- Race 4: 1-2-3-10
- Race 5: 6-1-7-5
- Race 6: 2-6-5-7
- Race 7: 8-3-6-4
- Race 8: 9-4-6-5
- Race 9: 10-7-2-1
- Race 10: 7-6-5-2
Colonial Downs Race 5: Tough Critic (#6) at 7-2 or higher
The stakes action kicks off with the juveniles going two-turns in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes. I think the two shortest prices on the morning line both have questions to answer as Jutland (#7) needs to rebound off a disappointing 7th in a stakes at Woodbine and J J Grey (#5) needs to prove it versus a tougher field than the maiden o/c he beat on debut. There’s a few in here that like to be forwardly placed, so they could compromise each other’s chances, but of them I prefer Casa Cielo (#1). He drew well on the inside and I thought he beat a decent rival in Behold the King who came back to cross the wire first in a maiden race last week before being disqualified. I picked Tough Critic (#6) on top given the fact he’s faced the toughest fields of anyone in here. Despite a poor start, he broke his maiden at Keeneland at first asking. That performance was encouraging enough to attempt the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot where he took money to be 10-1 before finishing 11th essentially splitting the field. I’m willing to forgive his effort in the Skidmore as he was done in by a rough break and I wonder if the extra distance and projected race flow will move him up. He’s a sibling to Frank’s Art who won routing and I trust George Weaver’s placement of his juveniles at Colonial as he won with both No Nay Mets and Governor Sam here en route to Breeders’ Cup tries.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Desvio (#2) at 5-2 or higher
With the likely scratch of morning line favorite Truly Quality (#4), who ran on Saturday at Del Mar, this race becomes really wide open. I guess favoritism falls to that one’s stablemate Twirling Point (#7) who makes sense getting out to 12f given his dam Kitten’s Point excelled at longer distances. However, there are other interesting alternatives that will be better prices including Dear Dad (#5) who holds a significant pace advantage in this race, but will need to prove he can go this far. Safe Trip Home (#6) is the intriguing longshot in this race given how he’s moved forward since getting out to three turns. He possesses the best late kick of anyone in the race, but I worry a little about him getting enough pace here. I have to give Desvio (#2) one more shot after yet another nightmare trip in that allowance last time. That’s proven to be a solid race with both the winner Goldeneye and runner-up Dripping Gold winning right back. He has to answer the question of whether he can get 12f, but I don’t think he was given his best chance in the Cape Henlopen and he did win the Kent Stakes as a 3YO going 11f at Delaware. He’s shown an affinity for this turf course in the past when he finished a close 3rd behind multiple G1W Deterministic in last year’s Virginia Derby.
Colonial Downs Race 10: Thirteen Colonies (#7) at 4-1 or higher
It’s clear that World Beater (#6) is going to be very tough to overcome in this year’s G3-Old Dominion Derby as he exits an impressive win in the G1-Saratoga Derby last time out. I’d use him on my tickets in any multi-race wagers, but I’m concerned that he might be a “last time was the time” horse as he won at 11-1 with a perfect trip in his prior start and might be sub-even money in this spot. I’ll avoid spreading too much trying to beat him and instead take a shot with the one horse I think is the up-and-comer in this bunch. Thirteen Colonies (#7) signaled his raw ability when winning by over 4L on the Keeneland turf course this Spring. He finally got back to his preferred surface early in the Saratoga meet and ran very well to finish a clear second in an allowance event. He did so without the easiest of journeys, racing without cover and breaking the race open at the top of the lane. The colt that ran him down was Simulate who came back to run a nice second in the G2-Secretariat earlier this meet.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/30)
All
Top Picks: 172-45-37-27 (26%, $1.79); Featured Horses: 54-11-10-14 (20%, $2.24)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 105-21-25-14 (20%, $1.85); Featured Horses: 41-9-8-9 (22%, $2.63)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 42%; B’s: 35%; C’s: 19%; X’s: 4%
