This Saturday’s card is spiced up by the fact the two stakes races from last weekend were moved to this day making for a late pick five sequence that includes four stakes races along with a salty maiden special weight to close it out. Reminder that the LP5 goes with just a 12% takeout. Hopefully we can link it up with some of these ideas.
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Selections
- Race 1: 6-4-5-3
- Race 2: 4-1-2-5
- Race 3: 7-8-5-4
- Race 4: 3-2-1-5
- Race 5: 10-11-8-2
- Race 6: 4-6-1-5
- Race 7: 4-1-3-5
- Race 8: 3-6-1-2
- Race 9: 3-6-2-4
- Race 10: 8-3-10-11
Colonial Downs Race 2: Taco Cat Backwards (#4) at 5-1 or higher
It’s tough to get past the two favorites in this $16k claimer as both Minari (#1) and Reading Time (#2) look formidable in this spot. The former has been racing against tougher and now drops to a comfortable level and should get a lovely trip from the inside. The latter hasn’t won in a while, but retains the services of leading rider Paco Lopez and could get right to the front. I’m going to take a small shot against them with Taco Cat Backwards (#4). I view her most recent start as simply a prep to knick the rust off given she was off nearly three months. Now she’s back in a spot where she’ll be able to get a comfortable mid-pack trip. She hasn’t met a group this soft since her N2L win four-back, so the drop in class will certainly help.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Magic Wallet (#4) at 9-2 or higher
The Star De Naskra Stakes has been brought back from the canceled 7/4 card and features a pretty evenly matched group. One opinion I have is not to default to the ML favorite Tartabull (#8). I haven’t been impressed with his recent form and the trainer switch off a failed turf experiment screams desperation. I actually view Close the Gate (#1) as the horse to beat in this spot as he has a couple lines from earlier this year that would make him tough. Top Manipulator (#3) is also worth a look as he had his three-race win streak snapped when facing a crazy tough test in the Chick Lang last time out. My top pick is actually another runner who contested that event as I landed on Magic Wallet (#4). This colt had an auspicious start to his career winning at first asking over this strip and backing that up with a minor stakes win at Delaware last August. He then went to the bench and its taken him some time to get back on track in 2026. I’m willing to draw a line through his Chick Lang as that was a tough spot and last out he showed improvement finishing second in a tough N1X. I also think he can improve with a bit more distance as he gets out to 7f for the first time.
Colonial Downs Race 10: Yaudacity (#8) at 3-1 or higher
It’s clear that Italy (#3) is the horse to beat in this nightcap as this Caravaggio filly was narrowly defeated at this level at Monmouth last time. However, at 4-5 on the morning line, she’s a play against as I don’t view her as a more than 50% likely winner. Michael Stidham entered another runner in this spot who could challenge his favorite as Toocoolforschool (#11) cuts back in distance after dropping anchor in a route last time. The reduction in distance could be what the doctor ordered for this daughter of top turf sprint sire Street Boss. Another turnback who is interesting is Champagne Brunch (#10) going out for the Antonio Sano barn. She didn’t run all that badly going the flat 5 at Gulfstream three-back, but I’m a touch worried she’ll be outfooted early on. My top pick is Yaudacity (#8) as I think she’s finally found the right field. Her debut at this distance at Keeneland last year proved she could rally past horses which she’ll need to do this afternoon. I found it interesting she was bet so heavily in her two turf sprints down at the Fair Grounds as those fields were arguably tougher than this one. I’m willing to throw out her route try last time as that was a salty group and she just didn’t see out the distance. Now she’s well-drawn outside the other speed and can get a nice stalk and pounce trip under Jareth Loveberry.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 208-57-45-33 (27%, $1.88); Featured Horses: 65-11-13-17 (17%, $1.86)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 127-27-28-19 (19%, $2.01); Featured Horses: 51-9-10-12 (18%, $2.12)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 46%; B’s: 33%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%
