This sequence begins with the 9th race at Monmouth today and then it includes the last four races at Saratoga. The Grade 1 Fourstardave and the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational will be run today and they’ll be the last two legs of this wager today which starts at 4:45 PM (EDT).
Leg A: Monmouth Park Race 9:
The final turf race of the day at Monmouth is also the lone Monmouth race in today’s Cross-Country Pick-5. Three yeat olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles on the grass here. One Time Willard (#9) is coming off a pair of races where he slammed his career top Beyer Speed Figure. He’s always been a nice Jersey bred gelding, however, his last two starts suggest that he could have another level. While he’s struggled in open allowance company in the past, if the same horse that ran in those last two starts shows up here, he’s going to be a handful for the others in this one. Ready to Fly (#6) is the other use for me in this race, He’s been knocking on the door at this level since a driving score at Tampa. He hasn’t had ideal trips in his recent run of second place finishers, but I do think he could have a breakthrough effort in the near future.
Leg B Saratoga Race 8, The Mahony Stakes:
This is the toughest and most wide open race in the sequence today. Three year olds will dash 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in this stakes race. Blinkers on has been a major positive angle for Brad Cox. He’ll try them with Fandom (#1), who was third in the Quick Call last out. He has a pair of wins at Keeneland, including a score in the Palisades on a good course at this distance earlier this year. The rail is not ideal, but I do think he has a big chance with the right trip. Mansa Musa (#7) ran huge that day, finishing ahead of Fandom and behind Charles Appleby’s filly Star of Mystery. They won’t have to deal with her today, and if he can replicate that last effort, he’s going to be tough to deal with here. American Rascal (#6) came out of the same race and finished 4th. He was making his first start on the turf since trying a race at Royal Ascot last year. I think getting the experience over the course could be helpful. Howard Wolowitz (#2) has never ran on the turf, but he was extremely fast on the Tapeta last out. There’s some speed in here, but he might be the quickest in the early stages. If closers are struggling, he might be a sneaky horse to throw in here at long odds. Yellow Card (#3) is also worth including after an impressive turf debut at Churchill going five furlongs last time out. This will be a class test, but the way he pulled clear late, tells me the 5 ½ furlong distance will not be an issue.
Leg C: Saratoga Race 9:
I like Eirik RIdge (#9) a lot in this $25K N3L claiming race. He has decent efforts at this distance in tough races in Kentucky. He broke his maiden at Finger Lakes this spring and ran well in two allowance races there. He comes to the Spa and finds a condition where he feels like a good fit. Dylan Davis has had an excellent meet so far and he gets the assignment for James Ryerson. I think this is an odd spot for That’s Money (#10) to drop in class to, however, his three efforts before a dull try in the Mike Lee in the slop, would put him right there with this field. He’s hard not to include. J J ‘s Joker (#1) is the other backup for me in this race. He’s not the most consistent runner, but he does have the ability to run big races from time to time. I think the seven furlong distance of this race could be a good fit for him.
Leg D: Saratoga Race 10, The Grade 1 Fanduel Fourstardave:
This race lost the heavy favorite, Master of the Seas to a foot bruise the other day, so there are six left to challenge for this prestigious Grade 1 prize. I’ve been a fan of Carl Spackler (#4) since his debut. He was excellent when winning both the National Museum of Racing Stakes and the Saranac Stakes here last year on “good” courses. He had tough tripos in his two career off the board finishes, so I think the smaller field for him is a plus. I think both More Than Looks (#7) and he are the only true milers in this race. I think this is a tough spot from a pace and class standpoint for More Than Looks, who intended to run in the Lure Stakes for his seasonal debut last week. He might be better next time, but for today, I’m all in on Carl Spackler.
Leg E: Saratoga Race 11, The Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational::
I think Trikari (#8) is going to be tough to beat in this race.He’s had quite the season,winning the Grade 2 American Derby on a “good” course on Derby Day and then winning the Belmont Derby at this distance in his last start. He continues to get better for Motion and he’s proven on a course that is softer than firm. I think he’s better than his rivals right now. I’ll back up with Deterministic (#6). He was excellent at the beginning of March when he won the Gotham off a lengthy layoff. He tried Wood and Peter Pan for his next two starts and he wasn’t nearly as sharp. I thought his effort in the Manila when trying the grass for the first time was strong. I think he can handle the added distance on the grass. He might have the highest ceiling in this field.
