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Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner

BEST BET: 2-Cat The Confidante (Race 1)

Race #1: Selections: 2-6-5

Class dropping 2-Cat The Confidante (Ire) exits a wide trip seventh on Oct. 30 for trainer John Sadler, and is reunited with winning pilot, Hector Berrios. This sophomore filly by multiple G1 winner Churchill has run above par for this class level and figures to be making up solid ground late. 6-Magale did little running when returning off a two-month freshening on Oct. 13 for Baltas, but stretches back out this afternoon and has trained well since that subpar performance. Improvement is likely with Velasquez in the saddle. The Mark Glatt-trained 5-Time to Shine has hit the board in four straight and finished third in front of a pair of today’s returning rivals in her most recent try.

Race #2: Selections: 3-6-2

3-What’s the Buzz has good early zip and has been freshened for this for his low-profile connections. The 4-year-old colt should prove difficult to reel in late with an alert break against this suspect group. 6-Majestic Palisades shortens up to today’s 5 ½-furlong trip off a series of longer route tries and has run some of the faster main track Beyers in this field. There is a potential for a chalky exacta. 2-Pat Can’t Count goes first off the claim after several tries under the Los Al lights, going 1,000 yards.

Race #3: Selections: 5-1-8-7

A beaten odds-on favorite in last, 5-Surfin’ U.S.A. adds blinkers today, goes two sprints to a route, and makes the all-important third career start. The Baltas-trained juvenile filly retains Hernandez and is by Rock Your World, who gets an above-average 17% with grass routers. 1-Channel Place stretches out in career start number two for Team O’Neill after breaking slowly in her Aug. 24 debut, a race that has since produced four next-out winners. The daughter of Liam’s Map moves from an outside post to today’s advantageous rail draw. 8-Cherry Cider flashed good speed and just missed in a game runner-up on debut for Baffert back on July 19 and now tries turf in start number two. This 2-year-old filly has a turf pedigree on both sides, suggesting she’ll successfully handle the surface switch for the top barn. 7-Springline has seen her Beyers improve in each subsequent start to date and exits a career-best (70) turf figure on Nov. 9.

Race #4: Selections: 3-4-1

Turf to dirt 3-Dirty Words drops back down to the $20k claiming purchase price from two-back for O’Neill off the mini-freshening and gets the tepid vote in this weak lineup. 4-Seattle Surf is a 14-start maiden who usually flashes solid early zip before surrendering late and now goes first off the claim for conditioner Jesus Uranga. 1-Uncle Evco makes career start number 13 this afternoon but has hit the board in five of 12 lifetime tries and was a well-beaten second at this level over this course Nov. 2.

Race #5: Selections: 5-3-8

5-El Potente is in super form right now for conditioner Dan Blacker, exiting a pair of sharp wins, including a 3-length romp in the G3 Thunder Road, where he earned a field’s best (104) turf Beyer. The 6-year-old figures to be on or close to the lead again this afternoon and should have little trouble negotiating an additional sixteenth of a mile. 3-Almendares (GB) was well beaten in this event last year, but had a tough outside draw that afternoon, and now gets a favorable inside post this afternoon for the 2025 edition. The 5-year-old gelding is still looking to notch his first graded stakes victory, but exits back-to-back ITM finishes in the G2 Del Mar S. and City of Hope Mile. The ultra-consistent 8-Cabo Spirit has hit the board in his last six grass graded stakes tries and is a logical inclusion when having little chance last year when drawing post 12.  

Race #6: Selections: 4-8-3

4-Scotlynn Rae is by G1 winner Passion for Gold, who gets a solid 18% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. This 2-year-old filly has trained steadily for this afternoon’s unveiling, and this lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 9 for 32 (28%) with a $3.48 ROI with firsters. Trainer Doug O’Neill sends out first-time starter 8-Tate Batz. She’s by Pavel (17% debut runners) and shows a sharp local bullet gate drill in :35 flat on Nov. 14. Fresu and O’Neill are 4 for 24 (17%) with 10 ITM finishes with dirt sprint debut runners over the past two years. 3-Violets Song (by Violence) has something the top pair does not—racing experience. The Miller-trained juvenile goes turf to dirt in career try number three, after showing some speed and tiring both sprinting and going two turns in her Oct. 18 debut.

Race #7: Selections: 4-5-8

The Whisper Hill Farm homebred 4-Just Aloof ships west off a game grass route maiden win at Aqueduct on Oct. 16 for trainer Chad Brown. Brown has won this event three times: Fluffy Socks (2020), Ligeria (2022), and Lady de Berry (2023). She picks up top turf pilot Hector Berrio for her Southern California unveiling. 5-La Ville Lumiere moves back to the grass for trainer Michael McCarthy off a third in the Oak Leaf (G2) and seventh in the BC Juvenile Fillies (G1). This daughter of City of Light has proven she can handle turf and worked well on Nov. 20 in preparation for this. 8-Yours Sincerely (Ire) closed well to round out the superfecta in the G3 Surfer Girl at Santa Anita on Oct. 5 (despite late traffic issues) for D’Amato, and figures to catch a live race flow today to help utilize her late kick.

Race #8: Selections: 8-7-4

8-Moonshiner returns as a first-time gelding off the mini-freshening for trainer Vann Belvoir and figures to be sent along on the front end from his outside draw. He is a logical contender here if he can run back to those sprint tries from two and three back. 7-Joker Went Wild (by Practical Joke) makes his second start off an even third in his Oct. 30 debut. Trainer Brian Koriner is 13-for-47 (28%) with second-time dirt sprinters over the past five years, suggesting improvement is likely. 4-Monsieur Big is the son of Mr. Big, debuting for trainer Tilm Yakteen. This jockey-trainer combo scored with their lone debut starter together with Cast Member (5-1) back in 2022. The colt’s a.m. drills are steady but unspectacular.

Race #9: Selections: 2-3-1

The stakes-placed 2-Friendly Confines steps up in class this afternoon for trainer Richard Baltas, but has finished first or second in four of five career turf starts and appears to be the speed of this group with a favorable inside draw. The sophomore colt by Twirling Candy was run down late in the Let it Ride S. on Oct. 30, but should appreciate going further today at a likely slower clip, and therefore prove tough to reel in late. Grade 1 winner 3-Test Score is the class of this field and the colt to beat, exiting a game win in the Oct. 25 Twilight Derby (G2) for trainer Graham Motion when blinkers were added for the first time. The Lookin at Lucky sophomore has banked nearly $1.5 million in earnings and sports a 4-3-2 record from 11 starts. He’s a perfect 2-for-2 going this 1 1/18-mile trip. 1-Maaz (Fr) was the runner-up to Test Score in the Twilight Derby, earning a career-best Beyer, and should work out another favorable ground-saving journey from the rail

Race #10: Selections: 7-1-4

The multiple graded stakes-placed 7-Madaket Road is the class of this field for Team Baffert and enters this softer spot as the fastest and stylish colt in the field. The runner-up in the Woody Stephens, Pat Day Mile, and Rebel, this colt figures to win this at short odds. His latest five-furlong drill in :59 flat on Nov. 20 proves he is ready to fire off the mini-freshening. The D’Amato-trained 1-Speedy Wilson goes turf to dirt this afternoon and returns to seven furlongs, where he’s a perfect 2-for-2. The sophomore colt loves the Del Mar main track but will need to negotiate a trip from the tricky rail draw. First-time gelding 4-Ghazaaly also returns to dirt, second off the claim, and figures to show a solid late kick on the turnback for Team O’Neill.

Race #11: Selections: 4-5-11

A habitual slow starter, the stakes-placed 4-Lyle The Crocodile (Ire) takes a sizable class drop this afternoon, exiting the Let it Ride S. for this softer spot for D’Amato while making his second try off the bench. The 3-year-old gelding just missed the place spot in that aforementioned stakes when rallying strongly late and sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (85). 5-Tariff goes second off the claim for trainer Jeff Mullins, exiting a decent fourth-place finish against better on Oct. 3. That event has produced a pair of next-out winners, and this 3-year-old colt should trip out nicely over a one-mile distance he excels at (4-for-9). The lightly raced 11-Hiding in Honduras was a tough trip fourth in the Let it Ride stakes in only his second start for trainer Jonathan Thomas after a blowout synthetic 7 ¾-length maiden score at Presque Isle on debut. The Dialed In gelding got dealt a tough outside draw but still offers much upside.