Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Law Abiding (Race #5)
Race #1: Kentucky invader 7-Top of My Game comes in off a good third behind next-out winner Undalay and drops in for a tag for the first time for conditioner Luis Mendez. This barn is a strong 4 for 11 (36%) with a $3.84 ROI with MDSW to MDCLM dropdowns at Del Mar. 3-Cortese also ships in from Churchill for trainer John Ennis and has run back-to-back decent races close to par for this level against better. He appears to be main threat to top pick on the class plunge. 2-Saburo’s Grace could improve for new barn off a troubled trip debut try July 2 and this barn scored with MDSW class dropper Secret Fix last Sunday.
Selections: 7-3-2
Race #2: 1-Quick Buck was no match for runaway winner Hail Freedom in most recent start but earned a career best Beyer (84) on the stretch-out to a mile. The 3-year-old gelding has worked 5 times since that improved effort and is projected to be forwardly placed. First time gelding 8-Continental Divide makes first start for the Peter Miller barn off recent claim and attracts jockey Juan Hernandez for the ride. 2-Exceed Speed Limit stretches out and makes first attempt over the main track for new conditioner Michael McCarthy. This gelding is bred to handle the surface change; ships in with decent form and has worked twice over the local setting.
Selections: 1-8-2
Race #3: This is a very tricky and competitive grass route for 2-year-old fillies. 1-Bold Connection attracted decent tote support in Lone Star debut but ran into some trouble when squeezed slightly at the start and then proceeded to make a sharp 4-wide sweep to challenge for the lead. She flattened out in the stretch, but it was encouraging effort for this $200K Keeneland purchase by Uncle Mo. The filly adds blinkers today; moves to turf and barn clicks close to 30% with 2nd time starters. 4-Green Eyed Lady was a beaten favorite 3rd in June 10 grass sprint try behind Quarantella and now stretches out for her second career start. This filly is by multiple Grade 1 winner Oscar Performance and should appreciate the extra yardage. 5-Comanche Country (Ire) makes her U.S. unveiling for the D’Amato barn that typically does well with these imports. She’s by Highland Reel (Ire) who was a multiple G1 winner overseas. Rispoli has four wins and 2 seconds already for this barn at the current meet as of this writing.
Selections: 1-4-5
Race #4: 2-Blame George has run on well despite some trouble in last pair at Churchill and now makes his first start for trainer Robertino Diodoro. He cuts back to a sprint; has run some competitive Beyer numbers close to par for this level, and this jockey/trainer combo have had prior success. 3-Butkus gets a complete makeover today for new conditioner Peter Miller. He adds blinkers; goes turf to dirt and returns as a first-time gelding. 7-Eleniak was a sharp Maiden winner over two next-out winners June 19 and now goes out for new barn that excels with new acquisitions. This gelding gets in light and projects to be forwardly placed this afternoon.
Selections: 2-3-7
Race #5: 7-Law Abiding returns to turf making the all-important 3rd start off the bench for conditioner George Papaprodromou who has solid figures with MDSW to MDCLM class droppers. The 3-year-old colt is reunited with top turf pilot Umberto Rispoli. 10-Naismith switches back to turf on the class drop and stretches out today for winning connections. This Hall of Fame barn has above average numbers in all these relevant categories. 6-Mo Them Down has had several chances now making career start number 10 this afternoon for trainer Doug O’Neill but drops back down to face claimers; switches back to grass and has decent tactical speed.
Selections: 7-10-6
Race #6: Trainer Bob Baffert has a pair of first-time starters that appear (as always) well-meant for their seaside debuts. 8-Newgate is a $850K Keenland purchase by win-early top sire Into Mischief who debuts off a pair of eye-catching 5-furlong bullet drills. Velasquez is in town and is an impressive 8 for 12 (67%) with a $3.13 ROI with Baffert debut runners the past 3 years. 3-Hard to Figure is by Grade 1 winner Hard Spun; attracts leading rider Hernandez and comes in with barn’s typical snappy a.m. drills. 7-South Coast Route is eligible to move forward substantially with prior track experience for trainer Peter Miller.
Selections: 8-3-7
Race #7: Graded stakes placed 6-Commander (Fr) returns off the freshening for trainer Peter Miller and is reunited with winning rider Hernandez whose been onboard for multiple starts. This 5-year-old gelding has run par or better for this class level and looks well-meant off the layoff. 3-Whooping Jay comes off the mini-freshening and Spawr claim and has run well over this turf course in the past. First time gelding 1-Chasin Munny returns for a $80k claiming tag but has good tactical speed; draws the rail and has run well fresh for trainer Mark Glatt.
Selections: 6-3-1
Race #8: 2-Shaaz is a lightly raced 4-year-old colt by Uncle Mo who is 3 for 4 lifetime for Team Baffert. He posted an eye-catching 105 Beyer in last December debut victory and has trained extremely well for return effort. He cuts back to a sprint looking for first graded stakes win. 5-Principe Carlo is one of four in here tied with co-97 last race Beyer and has been freshened up for this Grade 1 affair off some encouraging a.m. drills. He cuts back to 6 furlongs and should be forwardly placed. 3-Bagboss has never been off the board in 8 career starts for trainer Brendan Walsh and comes into Southern California off a pair of back-to-back wins at Churchill. The 4-year-old colt by Speightstown defeated a pair of next-out winners in his most recent start June 12 and could be ready to tackle these top graded-stake types.
Selections: 2-5-3
Race #9: Possible pacesetter 6-Goliad stretches back out to winning Maiden distance this afternoon making his 2nd start off the layoff for trainer Richard Mandella. Hernandez sticks and a strong move forward is more than likely. 10-Midnight Jostar is a multiple winner over this turf course and comes in today in excellent form for trainer Phil D’Amato. The 5-year-old gelding shows improving Beyer figures and makes the all-important 3rd start off the bench. He switches to Rispoli who is off to a fast start for this top barn and superb riding this turf course. Stone closer 1-Liberal (Ire) is 4 for 10 at today’s mile trip and is coming off a sharp win over $50k caliber claimers. The 6-year-old gelding has done extremely well under trainer Kristen Mulhall’s care the last several months but is 0 for 5 at Del Mar.
Selections: 6-10-1
Race #10: 2-Defunded has certainly moved forward and matured from 3 to 4-years-old and is a much-improved runner in 2022 for trainer Bob Baffert as evidenced by his last pair of Beyer speed figures. Like a few others in here, he comes off a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup and returns to a shorter more preferred and suitable distance. A potential wire-to-wire threat today. The other Baffert runner is the well-accomplished 8-Country Grammer who won the Gold Cup last year and comes off a HUGE victory in the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup back in March. The 5-year-old has trained lights-out for his return and is the one to beat with Velazquez in town to ride. Trainer Brad Cox is 4 for 17 (24%) overall the past 5 years in graded stake events at Del Mar and he ships over the talented 3-Mandaloun who makes his 2nd start off the layoff today and is 2 for 3 at this 1 1/16-mile trip. The colt is 6 for 11 lifetime and looks to regain his 2021 Grade 1 caliber form.
Selections: 2-8-3
Race #11: 3-Lady Clementine (GB) adds Lasix for U.S. unveiling and has run well over the synthetic surface in all 4 career starts overseas. This 3-year-old filly is by Grade winning turf sire Churchill (Ire) and attracts hot turf rider for the Saturday 11-race nightcap. Beaten favorite 4-Leisurewear (Ire) has good speed and makes 2nd start off the layoff for trainer Phil D’Amato. The 4-year-old filly stretches out to a mile; has already run par for this class level; and gets key rider change. They’re a combined 6 for 18 (33%) on turf the past year. 1-Jubilee Lake goes sprint to route making second start off the layoff and comes off a career best grass Beyer (71). The filly should appreciate the move to the rail.
Selections: 3-4-1
