Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Kid Corleone (Race #8)
Race #1: The speedy 5-Wall Street Trader was clearly overmatched in most recent start August 13 but was a blowout winner with a 14-length romp two-back at Los Al going this trip. The lightly raced 2-Holiday Arousal is 2 for 3 for trainer Jonathan Wong and appears well-spotted for his first start over this racetrack. Recent claim 6-Monologue ships in from Kentucky for trainer Robertino Diodoro off a solid fast closing win and (79) Beyer, but now shows up for nearly half of his May purchase price. The drop is somewhat suspicious for a barn that has not done particularly well (1 for 13) thus far with recent claim shippers.
Selections: 5-2-6
Race #2: 6-The Big Cheeseola showed little run in turf debut route effort but that was perhaps merely a prep for today’s main track sprint try. The juvenile colt is by Mr. Big who gets 16% with dirt sprint runners and trainer Tim Yakteen is 3 for 8 (38%) with MDSW to MDCLM class dropdowns at Del Mar. 5-King Zog came up only a head short in August 11 unveiling while flashing good early zip only to be nailed at the wire. 1-Warrens World gets a complete makeover today for trainer Craig Lewis looking for some form reversal. The colt adds blinkers; goes turf to dirt; and shortens up in distance on the class drop. The sample is small, but this barn is 2 for 6 (33%) going Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claimers.
Selections: 6-5-1
Race #3: The filly 1-Emerald Lake has not been off the board in 5 career starts for trainer Peter Miller and makes her 2nd start off the mini-freshening of a solid runner-up try against similar. She’d Beyered above par for this class level in back-to-back efforts. 2-Youte is also making her second start off the bench after flashing solid speed and tiring to fifth. She’s reunited with winning rider this afternoon. 4-Sky On Ice stretches out to winning Maiden breaking distance and deserves another chance at this reduced level for trainer John Sadler.
Selections: 1-2-4
Race #4: 4-Montana drops in for a tag after troubled trip in July 23 debut. The gelding was off slowly and encountered some traffic issues before finishing a non-threatening 7th. That race has since produced a pair of next-out winners and this gelding has returned to work well since that effort. 1-Stanford Man was trounced in July 31 debut but attracted solid tote support that afternoon and now returns as a first-time gelding for trainer Jonathan Wong. His sire Stanford gets 22% with his 2-year-old prodigy and we’re thinking he possesses more ability than he revealed in subpar try at first asking. 7-Hondo Crouch has not been working especially fast for unveiling but barn has above average numbers with Maiden Claiming first time starters. The connections reach out to go-to jockey Kyle Frey who is 3 for 11 (27%) when riding for this outfit.
Selections: 4-1-7
Race #5: 3-Back On the Street comes off a solid 2nd place finish with wide trip in most recent start July 31 and can move forward with a race over the track. The 7-furlong trip should fit this daughter of Malibu Moon perfectly. The improving 2-Darling Donna comes off a strong Maiden Claiming victory in which she earned a field’s best (75) Beyer speed figure. She must stretch out to 7 furlongs today, however, and faces more potential pace pressure. A repeat against winners is within reach but certainly no slam dunk. 6-Derby Quest is winless since November 2020 and has lost 13 straight. Having said that… she should have ample pace to close into this afternoon.
Selections: 3-2-6
Race #6: 2-Always Litt was a sharp second despite some late traffic issues when dropped down to this reduced level in most recent start August 6. She earned the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (66) and should prove tough with another forward move today. Beaten favorite 8-Big Gun has trained well for trainer Tim Yakteen off January freshening and voided claim. 1-Mask Off was last seen 9 months ago when finishing a well-beaten 8th against Maiden Special Weight types here at Del Mar. She returns for a $50k claiming tag this afternoon for new conditioner that’s 3 for 6 (50%) with a $3.77 ROI with this class plunge. This 4-year-old gelding has trained well for return try.
Selections: 2-8-1
Race #7: 4-Lexington Humor has good speed and turns back to 5 panels while moving back to grass for trainer Jonathan Wong. The 3-year-old filly by multiple Grade 1 winner Practical Joke has shown ability in all 3 career starts on varied surfaces and is a strong wire-to-wire threat today. 8-Woodbine Way comes off a troubled trip runner-up finish off a 3-month freshening and should be much tighter this time around for trainer Leonard Powell. Hernandez lands here while appearing to have had some other riding options. 2-Shes’a Perfectlady has been expertly handled and seeks 4th consecutive win for Sadler. Today’s 5 furlongs trip might be just a tad too short for her, however, to fully utilize her potent closing kick.
Selections: 4-8-2
Race #8: 3-Kid Corleone was not only visually impressive when crushing cheaper off the layoff at 7/1 on July 22 but earned a strong (98) Beyer as well to match that superb performance. The 3-year-old colt by Shackleford should easily run through this next condition for trainer Doug O’Neill. The Day’s Best Bet. 6-Apprehend was a sharp runner-up in most recent effort while 4 and 5-wide for most of the trip. He battled on gamely to the wire and makes his 3rd start off the bench today. 4-Letsgetlucky drops out of the Grade 1 Bing Crosby where he finished a good third. The 4-year-old gelding makes his 2nd start off the bench today.
Selections: 3-6-4
Race #9: Grade 1 winner 8-Speaker’s Corner heads west for trainer Bill Mott off an impressive 6 for 11 record and makes his 3rd start off the bench today after facing back-to-back wicked rivals Life Is Good and undefeated Flightline. This talented colt sports a solid 7-furlong record (4-3-1-0). 4-American Theorem is also proven at 7 furlongs and comes off a career best effort in winning the Grade 1 Bing Crosby where he earned the field’s best last out Beyer (104). The 5-year-old seeks third straight for red hot barn. Off the Baffert pair represented in here 9-Defunded removes the blinkers today and is still looking for his first graded stakes win. He makes his second start off the layoff today and should make a substantial move forward. He was runner-up in the Grade 1 Gold Cup two-back.
Selections: 8-4-9
Race #10: If a contested early pace materializes as projected things should set-up nicely for 9-Sword Zero who has not had ideal race flows in recent starts to help utilize his late closing kick. The 4-year-old colt takes a substantial class drop today and is the class of this field for trainer John Sadler. He should be along in time for the win in Saturday’s nightcap. 4-Border Town goes first off the claim for trainer Michael Maker and shows an eye-catching “best of 84” 5 furlong main track drill in :58.4 August 20 since changing hands. 5-Cono ran very well in his most recent start when flashing good positional speed and fading to 8th considering he was coming off a 11-month extended layoff for trainer Michael McCarthy. He drops from $50k to $32,000 claimers today and should be much tighter on the stretch-out.
Selections: 9-4-5
