Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Avery Blue (Race #3)
Race #1: 1-Cherry Chaos has speed and the rail and makes second start off the mini-freshening. This juvenile filly should be tough to reel in with another alert break. 6-Loyal to a Fault showed improvement when switching to turf and stretching-out for trainer Doug O’Neill and finished ahead of both Cherry Chaos and Warren’s Paradise. 3-Warren’s Paradise is another filly who moved up substantially when moved to turf and makes the all-important 3rd career start this afternoon which is typically a runner’s best. This filly gets a key rider change to Hernandez.
Selections: 1-6-3
Race #2: 4-Stay Happy goes first off the claim for trainer Mark Glatt who is 7 for 20 (35%) with a $2.87 ROI with new barn purchases at Del Mar on dirt. He’s run well here in the past and is a strong fit at this level. 2-Bear Chum was slightly overmatched in most recent effort, but this veteran 9-year-old gelding was a strong second earning above par for this class level two-back. He’s 12 for 45 lifetime. Gulfstream invader 1-Cajun Brother was last seen finishing 7th in the Sunshine Sprint Stakes back in January. He suspiciously shows up here for a $10,000 claiming tag for trainer Bob Hess and the big class drop understandably throws up an immediate cautionary red flag.
Selections: 4-2-1
Race #3: 3-Avery Blue was a beaten favorite in last but cuts back to a sprint today and makes her second start off the bench. Her sire Air Force Blue was a Grade 1 winner going 6 furlongs. 10-Grazen Touch owns the field’s best last out turf Beyer (66) and is improving with each subsequent start for trainer Paul Aguirre. The 3-year-old filly makes her 3rd start off the bench this afternoon and should be ready for a career best try. 9-Scary First Ride has trained well for her unveiling for conditioner Sean McCarthy who has above average numbers with his debut runners.
Selections: 3-10-9
Race #4: 3-American Cat showed good positional speed on August 7 debut when finishing 4th and has come back to work well since that even effort. This gelding earned a respectable (73) Beyer and looms a serious threat in here with a move forward. 10-Leya’s Candy finished behind Lemon Sushi in last but could very well reverse that decision today with the addition of blinkers. He’s one of two runners in here that has run above par for this class level. 2-Lemon Sushi popped a career best (81) Beyer when making first start off 7-month freshening. If this gelding can avoid a regression, he’s an obvious threat in here.
Selections: 3-10-2
Race #5: 4-Deise Delight moves back to a sprint today after a beaten favorite runner-up finish on August 6 where she earned a field’s best last-out (76) Beyer. The 5-year-old mare has been ultra-consistent and makes her 3rd start off the layoff today for trainer Doug O’Neill. 1-R Girl’s Werth It ships in from Gulfstream off the mini-freshening for new conditioner Mike Puype. The 3-year-old filly has speed and the rail and will likely be aggressively sent by Gonzalez. 11-Roses and Candy may be 1 for 29 lifetime and 0 for 10 on the Del Mar grass, but today’s projected swift early pace should flatter her running style as she cuts back to a sprint. She could very well grab a part of the vertical exotics at double digit odds.
Selections: 4-1-11
Race #6: 8-Continental Divide goes 2nd off the claim today for trainer Peter Miller and comes off a decent runner-up finish against similar. The 7-year-old gelding likes this strip and projects to get another nice set-up from of the pace. Hernandez rides back. 1-Doc Adams goes turf to dirt and moves all the way inside today where he should be able to save ground and work out a favorable trip behind projected snappy fractions. 10-Shortman looks for back-to-back wins for today’s new barn off an impressive 8-length romp at Los Al back on July 4. The 3-year-old gelding has drilled sharply since that effort and could be overlooked in here.
Selections: 8-1-10
Race #7: 1-Big Summer has been freshened and is working extremely well for today’s return for trainer Carla Gaines who has excelled with these long layoff turf runners. She’s 7 for 22 (32%) with $4.67 ROI the past 2 years with horses returning off >180 days on grass. This filly had two strong runner-up finishes over this turf course last summer. 7-Opening Buzz was overmatched in the Fleet Treat Stakes in most recent effort but moves to turf and drops back down to a reasonable spot today for trainer Jonathan Wong. This barn has been on fire the last week racking up several wins. This filly was a smashing winner of her debut on synthetic two-back but should handle grass fine. She’s by Stanford who gets 15% with grass turf sprinters. 6-Current Mood makes 2nd start off the bench and cuts back to a sprint for trainer Neil Drysdale. She should be motoring home late. The speedy
Selections: 1-7-6
Race #8: 5-Edgeway is a multiple Grade 3 winner for trainer John Sadler and this mare has consistently run well off the freshening. She was 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint here in 2021 and is the class of this field. 4-Slammed has won 8 of 10 for trainer Todd Fincher and comes off a smashing win in her first start over this oval where she earned a field’s best last out (98) Beyer. 3-Dance to the Music was taken out of her game in most recent start when bounced and bumped around at the start. She should rebound nicely in here with a cleaner start and was a good 2nd two-back in the Grade 3 Desert Stormer behind next-out multiple graded stakes winner Becca Taylor. 1-Empire House has won two straight for hot barn, The filly gets a stiff class test today but has been super sharp as of late.
Selections: 5-4-3
Race #9: 7-Above All Names ran well when making her first start over the track off a 4-month layoff after shipping in from Canada. The 6-year-old mare finished 3rd ahead of several of these same runners, and she stretches out to her preferred distance today where she’s a multiple winner. The speedy 9-Floral Essence has won 3 of her last 4 for trainer Jeff Mullins including dead heating in most recent win at Santa Anita at 10/1. She’s been freshened since that big effort and has worked very well over this racetrack since then. 4-Feathers (Ire) has shown very little in both starts this year but takes a sizable class plunge today and attracts Hernandez in the nightcap.
Selections: 7-9-4
