Fair Grounds Racing Preview – 3/13/21 – By Eric Solomon

There’s a $12,000+ carryover in the late Pick-5 this afternoon, which is a challenging, but hopefully lucrative sequence. There’s some good betting races throughout the Saturday card. Remember that next Saturday is the signature racing day of the meet at the Fair Grounds, highlighted by the Louisiana Derby.

Race 1:

The Saturday card kicks off with a dozen state bred maiden claimers running with a $10,000 tag. Yankee Clipper (1) ran a solid race at this level last month, grabbing the lead, while going 4 wide into the first turn, and just getting nipped at the wire. He gets a rail draw in a race devoid of much early speed. Murrill picks up the mount, so I’m expecting him to be better able to ration this one’s early speed. I made a case for Muletrain (7) last out who was 20-1 on the morning line that day and went off at 60-1 when facing slightly better last out. He outran his odds to be 4^th in that race, and I think he could have another forward move this afternoon, when making his second start at two turns. I think he had an excuse two back, so when you draw a line through that race, he has two efforts that aren’t that bad, and would get him close at this level. Stealing Apriority (6) makes only his second career start after going two turns with a wide draw in his debut at 6 and ½ Furlongs at Delta. He ships here and stretches out after making a little bit of a middle move before flattening out last time. Jade’s Classy One (12) is the morning line favorite, but he gets the worst of the draw and is trying two turns for the time. His last two efforts sprinting with $12,500 state bred maiden claimers would likely be enough to beat this group. There are enough factors working against him that leave me trying to beat him in the vertical wagers, while still covering him horizontally.

Race 2:

$5K N4L claimers or non-winners of 2 in the last 6 months go two turns here. Take That for Data (2) has not had the same level of success that he was having before being claimed by Keith Bourgeois back in November. He’s been primarily a turf horse, but he’s 2 for 6 in his career on the main track, with some solid efforts against better horses. He drops in hope of finding his better form. I think he might be able to do so while many others that haven’t been their best lately. Two Mikes and Doc G (4) couldn’t go with the winner against similar last out in the slop. His last two races have been less than his best, but this field is softer than the last two he’s faced. Good Intent (3) is another one who has been primarily focused on turf racing, however, his open lengths win on dirt two starts ago may have changed that. He came up short last time, getting a little tired late. If he can rebound, he should be right there with this field today.

Race 3:

The first turf race of the afternoon is for $20,000-$15,000 claimers that have never won twice or have not won two races at over a mile on the turf in 6 months. There’s a lot of horses that want to be forwardly placed in this spot, so I’m looking for Threewickedwishes (7) to be rolling late in hopes of winning her 4^th straight race. She broke her maiden three starts back in a maiden allowance on the grass at Louisiana Downs, and followed that up with a win in N1X allowance company. She went on the shelf for a while before returning in an off the turf claiming race here last month. She won that race by open lengths and now moves up in class while getting back to the grass. I think she’ll be flying late here. Strollin The Bayou (8) has two really sharp efforts at this level with a troubled trip 5^th sandwiched in the middle of those efforts. When she’s had clean trips, she’s been a tough customer. Sensible Myth (4) is the likely favorite, finally getting back on the grass after having her last two starts washed off the turf. She was a stakes winner in August at Gulfstream. Her two, two-turn races on firm turf have been exceptional, but her efforts in the past on this course have been more ordinary. This is a significant drop in class for her. She’ll likely be a short price, but I’m definitely getting mixed signals on her.

Race 4:

Three year old maiden claimers, running with a $30,000-$25,000 tag, kick off the mid-card Pick-4. Sir Giannis (2) cuts back to a sprint after a midpack finish at a mile on the grass last out. His lone dirt start came in one of the saltier maiden special weight races of the meet. He’s In Charge, who ran a monster effort winning that race, followed that up with a respectable second on Thursday in a fast allowance race, while running a little greenly down the stretch. I think the ceiling for Sir Giannis is higher than the two favorites, Saint Goar (1) and Flags Up (7), both of whom I’m trying to beat in here. Flags Up beat lesser in the slop, but was disqualified that day. He was beaten five at this level last out, never really looking like a winner at any point in that race. Saint Goar put up a big figure two back with much softer, and was also beaten five in the same race that Flags Up came out of. I didn’t like either effort that day, and I’m not convinced either will win today. On deeper tickets, maybe give a look to the first time starter, Sometimes Always (6) from the Hugh Robertson barn. He’s been working steadily, and his 47:3 bullet last week suggests that he might be able to run a bit in the afternoon.

Race 5:

Louisiana bred optional claiming/N1X allowance fillies and mares sprint on the turf here. It’s tough to figure out these races when most don’t have a lot of recent turf form to go off. Sunshine Deelite (3) is the closest thing to a true turf sprinter in this race. She gets back on the grass in her third race off the layoff, which looking at her Evangeline form from the summer, should be a welcome change. My only trepidation with her is that she hasn’t run great races on this course. Lucky Artie (2) has won three straight on the main track, including a win against N1X state bred allowance foes last out. He has two turf starts, and his best finish was third in a slowish race back in June at Evangeline. However, she’s in her best career form, so I think she’ll be up to the task. Play Unified (1) drops back in here for the $12,500 tag after beating an OC 20K/N2X  group on the main track two back. She’s held her own on the grass against better, so I think she’ll be okay here.

Race 6:

The carryover for the late Pick-5 starts here, with an optional $17,500 claiming/N1X for older fillies and mares. Microcap (2) may have a distinct pace advantage in here, as she looks to be the only real front runner in this spot. She was claimed from Chad Brown for $20K at Churchill three starts back. She was a winner here at this distance in her next start in a $30K N2L claiming spot, when facing winners for the first time. She tried a very tough field on the turf two weeks ago and was overmatched. She’s back on the dirt in an easier spot. She could be very hard to pass late here. Powder River (6) has made some steady improvements over her last four starts, leading to a maiden breaking score last out in her seventh career start. She was purchased for $50,000, so I believe her connections think highly of this four year old, as she’s never been offered for a tag. This will be a bigger test for her today, but she seems to be a horse that runs her best with a little time between her starts. Her interim works since her win on 1/9 have been solid, so I expect her to run well here. Break At Dawn (8) has already cleared the N1X condition, so she’s in for the tag this afternoon. Like Microcap, she struggled against better in her last race on the turf, facing better opponents. She rallied from last place two back to beat a solid group of N1X allowance foes at Remington, while going off at 11-1. My main worry is that she could be pace compromised a bit here if no one pushes Microcap early on.

Race 7:

The first of two turf races in the Pick-5 sequence is a maiden allowance for Louisiana bred fillies mares, three years old and up at 1 Mile. Four of the 11 entered are three year olds taking on older horses. Trainer Oscar Modica got off the duck for the meet yesterday when Exacta won the second race on the grass. I can see Marquez working out a similar trip with Lively Lea (8) this afternoon. Her one turf race at two turns was by far the best of her five race career. She just yielded late that day after hitting the front. She may get first run on Gifted Talent (7) who nipped her out for second last time. Gifted Talent is a logical favorite, although it’s never easy counting on maiden who is 0 for 10. She closed well to be in a photo for second in two of her last four turf starts, so she’s definitely getting closer. Hotmolly (2) is one of the three year olds and she maybe one of the horses with a little more upside in here. I can forgive her last in the slop, when she never looked like she was getting over the surface well. Her other two, two-turn races are her better efforts, along with her turf sprint. She has Sky Classic as her dam sire, so there is two turn turf ability in her pedigree. She’ll have to take a decent step forward, but I think there is potential there.

Race 8:

The Saturday feature is a $40,000 Optional Claiming/N2X allowance sprint for older horses. Three horses came out of an eventful race at this condition on 2/16, when both Hold Me Black (2) and Tringale (4) were pretty much eliminated from winning the race when both had to check sharply behind a horse that was pulling up. Coltonator (5) was out in front of that trouble, so he was not affected, and benefitted from that while finishing a solid second that day. He’s in the best current form though and should be tough in here again. He’s versatile enough to adapt to whatever pace scenario develops, and I expect a fast one with the presence of Takes Two to Tango (8) on the outside. Digital (3) makes his four year old debut in this spot, and he should be the benefactor of a hot pace up front if he’s good enough off the layoff. He took some money at the windows in graded stakes like the Risen Star and the Pat Day Mile, only to finish off the board in both. He’s run well on this track and at this distance before. Hold Me Black is the one I’ll play back from his troubled trip. He’s now second off the layoff and running for the second time for Matt Shirer. This field is a little deeper, and I’m a little concerned about his ability to win without being on the lead, however, I think he’ll definitely show more he did last time.

Race 9:

The last turf race of the day is for older state bred horses, either running with the optional $20K tag or for the N2X allowance condition. I think this is a race where there’s a potential for a decent pace battle, as both Papa’s Boy (3) and Mangelsen (9) usually want to be on the lead. I think this race sets up well for Stuck In Vegas (5) who ran a strong race in his first start off the Asmussen claim last time out when his race was rained off the turf. He is capable on the grass as well, winning twice, and finishing on the board another seven times in 16 career turf starts. He beat a field at this level in December, and has been solid all meet long. The Mo U Know (6) has also been in sharp form at this meet, and also won at this level in January, pulling off the 14-1 upset, when he grinded his way past Papa’s Boy that day. Since he ran for the tag that day, he’s able to be protected in this spot, as he was last time when he was a game third in the same race as Stuck In Vegas. He likely get first run at the pacesetters today, and it’s just a question if he can hold off the back markers. Nippy Red (8) ships in from Delta and gets back on the grass. The last time he was on turf, he nearly pulled off the 60-1 shocker, when he was beaten by Budro Talking in state bred stakes company. He finished in front of In The Navy that day and there’s no one in this field of that caliber. He’s never won in seven starts on the grass, but he’s hit the board in five of them. He’s a live longshot worth thinking about on deeper tickets and definitely one to maybe think about in the vertical exotics. I will cover with Papa’s Boy as he has shown that he can rate and win despite that probably not being his preferred style. I’d prefer to get a higher price than his 7-2 morning line, but I’m not sure that’s going to happen, as he’s only been off the board in three of his 13 career starts on the grass, with five of those being wins.

Race 10:

We have the same OC/N2X conditions for Louisiana breds as the previous race, the only difference is that this race is carded as a six furlong dirt sprint. I’m intrigued by a 10-1 shot on the morning line in Scarlettsblackjack (4) who ships in from Delta for Karl Broberg. He was claimed three back, but caught sloppy tracks in his first two starts for his new connections, which is not ideal for him. He has some prior efforts that would be competitive in this spot and he’s won five of his eight starts on the local course. Big Bella Brown (6) is the likely favorite and definitely in the best current form of this group, running two strong races in a row, including a game second place last out at this level. I think field is a little softer than the one he faced last out when finishing second. Cabo’s Rumor (8) cuts back to a sprint and may be the best closer in this field. I think there definitely could be some pace to set up his late kick in his first start since being claimed by Asmussen.