Fair Grounds Racing Preview – 3/6/21 – By Eric Solomon

It should be another beautiful Saturday in New Orleans, with two more turf stakes races scheduled. The Red Camelia will go as Race 5 and is restricted to Louisiana bred fillies and mares and the Allen “Black Cat” Lacombe Memorial for three year old fillies is the 9^th race today. Horses from that race may be looking to use this race as a prep for the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland, which is run on the same day as the Blue Grass and Ashland Stakes next month. Yesterday’s races started off with some big prices, leading to no one hitting the early Pick-5, creating a $12,653 carryover into the late Pick-5 on today’s card. I like that sequence today and think it’s worth playing.

Race 1:

State bred maiden claimers run with a $12,500 tag going 5 and ½ furlongs to start the day. Chinese Bandit (2) shipped here after three respectable efforts with maiden special weight company at Delta, but ran a dud of a race with better horses at the $25,000 claiming level. He gets a very a soft field and has shown that he has been better than most of these. Smittys Patriarch (1) will likely be the odds on favorite dropping here from maiden special weight company. He showed a little zip in his debut on the dirt, then ran an improved effort on the grass last out. He’s back on the dirt today, and should be tough to catch here. However, there’s going to be little value with this guy and he still has to prove he can get over this surface. I’ll proceed with a little bit of caution. He’s Taylor Made (3) may be a longshot worth playing in here if he’s able to rebound from losing the rider last out on a sloppy course. His debut at this level wasn’t awful, so there’s reason to believe that he could improve.

Race 2:

The second half of the early double and the kickoff leg to the first Pick 4 is a N3L claiming contest for fillies and mares that run for claiming price of $12,500-$10,000. Bluebird Song (7) feels like the one to beat in this spot, after beating multi-conditioned claimers at the same tag last out. On paper, it’s a slight bump in class to this straight N3L spot, but looking at her competition here and her competition last month, I feel it’s more of a lateral move. She’s had some gaps in her running lines over her seven career tries and this will be only the second time she’s raced two times within a month. The last time she did that, she showed a solid speed figure improvement. I think she’s the one to beat here. The morning line favorite is Love of My Heart (2), coming off a disappointing effort in the slop last out with better. She drops to restricted claiming company for the lowest tag she’s run for, so there’s possibility that she’ll improve against softer competition. However, Murrill opting to ride the Louisiana bred Miss Underrated (6) is a little concerning. I’ll cover with her, but I definitely feel stronger about Bluebird Song.

Race 3:

Maiden special weight turf sprinters go here, but not there’s not a ton of turf experience for turf form to go off. Let’s try Majestic Summer (6) to spring the upset, getting back to sprinting on the grass. He looked good going 6 and ½ furlongs on debut with a solid group at Kentucky Downs this fall, however he struggled next out on a good course going two turns at Churchill. He has improved while cutting back to a one turn dirt race, but I think he’s been itching to get back on the grass. Blinkers go on to get him in the race early. City Mischief (2) has tried to go on grass in his first two starts, but Mother Nature had other plans both times. He still run credible races with solid fields, despite both races coming off the turf. Casse has not had a great meet, but I think this could be one of his better horses on the grounds. Plutonium (4) exits the same last race as City Mischief, but ran into traffic issues and checked pretty hard before finishing 6^th. Stidham does well 2^nd time out and getting horses on the grass for the first time. He may be overlooked off his debut effort. Prairie (9) has one turf start and it was definitely solid, finishing a decent third behind next out stakes winner, Palazzi. He returns after two and a half months away and shows up in a sprint, which I’m not sure will suit him. I’ll cover him, but I think there’s definite value trying to beat him.

Race 4:

This race is for Louisiana bred N2L claimers, with a tag of $5,000. Gem of Carlos (1) was claimed out of a race at this condition last time out at two turns and now cuts back to a sprint. He was reasonably consistent running for a barn that had a 2% win percentage and now runs for the Steve Asmussen barn. This is one of several horses Asmussen claimed for himself recently, perhaps with the idea of trying to improve his stock to win the trainer the title at the meet. If this one takes a small step forward off his last, I don’t see many of these having the ability to beat him. Loveu and Proudofu (8) was 5^th in a much sharper heat at these conditions two starts back. The second and third place finisher that day came back to beat some of these in similar spots. He tried the turf with slightly better horses and struggled last out, so it makes sense to see him return to this level on the main track. I don’t love that he’s never hit the board in five local tries, but I see improvement in two of his last three efforts on this course, and I think this field is one of the softer ones he’s faced here. Western Star (4) has a bit of an outside chance, as it looks like this former longtime maiden has finally started to figure some things out. He showed significant improvement two back, racing for the second time for trainer Jacoby Landry. I didn’t love him last out at 15-1, as I felt he needed to prove that he was able to duplicate that effort, which he did, beating 10K state bred maiden claimers that day. The lightbulb could have gone off for this one, and I think he’ll need to show that he has another forward move in him. However, if he gets overlooked and his odds start floating above his 6-1 morning line, I think he is playable.

Race 5: The Red Camelia

This $60K stakes race is for Louisiana bred fillies and mares at 1 Mile on the Stall Wilson Turf Course. This race is a little tricky, as there’s not a of ton options for stakes quality Louisiana bred fillies and mares on either surface at the moment. As a result, there’s a mix of good horses in good form that definitely prefer dirt and some that definitely prefer turf. I think this spot is a chance for some of the dirt horses to get a race in before the Shantel Lanerie Memorial in three weeks, possibility hoping for rain today, so I’m definitely leaning to the horses that run better on turf. Room to Finish (1) is the obvious class here, running very well behind Secret Message two starts back against open company in the Marie Krantz. She struggled to gain ground on a yielding course last out in the Al Stall Memorial, against many of the same runners. She opts for this spot, instead of the Tom Benson Memorial on the Louisiana Derby Day Card in two weeks (Not to say she couldn’t do both). She beat many of these three back on Louisiana Champions Day. Net A Bear (6) looks to win this race for the second straight year, and is another one that definitely improves getting back on the grass. Her last two on dirt weren’t bad, but she consistently runs better races on turf. Offspring (9) is 7-2 on the morning line, but her odds could definitely float up a bit as three of have last four starts have been dullish efforts on the main track. She is definitely capable on the grass, winning twice in eight tries and hitting the board three other times, including a close third to Room to Finish three starts back. Net A Bear has had her number in her last two, so I’m a little weary to make her an A horse, but I think she can contend with a good trip. Lebkuchen (2) is one to think about on deeper tickets. She will definitely need to improve from a speed figure standpoint to be competitive here, however, she cleared the first two allowance conditions with ease on the grass in her last two tries. She’s a four year old, so I think she can definitely continue to progress and she’s never been worse than second with Murrill piloting her on the grass.

Race 6:

State bred N1X allowance fillies and mares start the late Pick 5. I’m not really sold on the favorites in this spot, so I’m looking for value, and I think Grace Forever (7) is interesting in this spot. She ships in from Sam Houston after a solid third with open $25K N2L horses, going off at 24-1. It’s hard to say, but I think from a class standpoint, this field is actually a little bit of class relief for her despite seeing the move from claiming company to allowance company. She’s third off the layoff, and I think her three career efforts on tracks with a one mile oval are better than a lot of her efforts in the bullring at Delta. Riquelme has the hot hand right now and is riding extremely well. I think she’s very playable as a new face in this division. Rockin Sunday (6) showed a little interest in her first race in over a year, beaten by both Sienna Breeze (1) and Ronnie’s Peso (8) last out. Blinkers come off today and her only other race on this track was really good. She wasn’t too far behind the favorites last out, and I think she has a forward move in her. American Rebel (4) broke through to break her maiden in the mud last out after failing to score in her first eight tries. She’s been gradually improving and certainly got a confidence builder last out. Ronnie’s Peso was four lengths better than her in December, but I think that gap has narrowed. Of the two favorites, I’ll cover with Ronnie’s Peso, as I think her last was just a dull effort after showing some ability in her previous few starts. I think others might have a higher ceiling at better odds, but I could still could see her winning. I can’t say the same for Sienna Breeze who hasn’t won in her last 11 tries since winning on debut at Delta in December 2019. Her last two have been better, but she really hasn’t been close to winning in any of these starts. Her two second place finishes were losses by open margins. She’s not impossible, but she won’t be on my tickets.

Race 7:

Back on the grass for a money allowance, specifically horses that haven’t won $10K, other than maiden, claiming, starter, or state bred allowance. Everyone in here is eligible for the N1X condition, except Darain (6), as he has an allowance win overseas along with his maiden score. However, the purse was below the $10,000 threshold, so he remains eligible. He just missed with N2X foes, in a field that is far superior to the competition that others have been up against here. He’s out of the tremendous European mare, Dar Re Mi, so there are expectations that this one will be on his way to stakes company. I don’t think he’s quite ready for a race like the Muniz in two weeks, being as lightly raced as he is, but a big effort here, could certainly propel his season. This Brad Cox runner feels very much like a free square. It is a big field and stranger things have happened, so on deeper tickets, two other horses interest me a bit here. Jolting Joe (10) was a stakes winner in the New York Stallion Series restricted race last year at Saratoga. He didn’t love the dirt last out, but didn’t run poorly either. He gets back on the grass, and does look like he could step forward here. Kadesh (4) will likely go off at long odds in this spot, but he has a bit of a live look. His two races on the grass came earlier in his career. They weren’t great efforts, but they were in line with his dirt tries. He has improved significantly since then, mostly in claiming company, but still showing better efforts. His last was a dud, but he has shown the ability to rebound in the past. He’s sired by Karakontie, so I like the move back to the grass at this point in his career. I’m not sure he’s a win candidate, but I like him underneath to add some value, and if his odds go well over the 20-1 morning line, which is a possibility, as I think Darain will be below even money, throwing a few bucks to win on him wouldn’t be the craziest idea.

Race 8:

This is an evenly matched optional $17,500 claiming/N1X allowance race at 6 Furlongs. I’m going to try to beat Senor Jobim (9) off the layoff in this spot. He’s coming off a solid effort at Churchill, when he just missed in a full field of N1X allowance foes. Juan Vargas rode him that day and hasn’t had a mount since. I’m assuming, he’s an exercise rider for Asmussen, getting a shot here, which, doesn’t necessarily bother me as he certainly rode him well last out. However, I think that off his last effort, Asmussen would have sent him to Oaklawn with his better dirt horses, like he has done in the past. I like what I’ve seen from On Your Mark (6) in his last two races, including a game second at this level last time out. He’s improved significantly in the claiming ranks, and showed he can handle this condition. I think he’ll take another step forward getting back on a fast surface today. Flying Curlin (2) has two significant breaks in his form lines, as he comes off the shelf to make his fifth start today. I really like his two efforts at Aqueduct last year, especially his maiden breaking score off the layoff. He’s beautifully bred, and may want a little more distance than the 6 Furlongs here, but this could be a good starting point for him, perhaps eyeing a 7 Furlong or a two turn race at Keeneland next month. Peruvian Boy (8) interests me a little bit here, shipping in from Turfway, after two photo finish defeats. He has done his best work on synthetics, but he can definitely run on the main track as well. He has improved significantly since coming to the Correas barn, and he’s another new face that could make some noise at this level.

Race 9: The Allen “Black Cat” Lacombe Memorial

Three year old fillies are going one mile in the first local stakes of the year in this division. Saranya (5) and Earth Strike (6) finished less than a length a part in allowance company on 2/5 and they appear to be the principal threats in here again today as I think both are eligible to improve. Saranya has run five times, three of which have come on the turf. She just missed in her debut at Churchill in September on the grass before twice trying the main track. She got back on the grass in her local debut and beat a nice group of maiden fillies on January 2^nd.  She followed that effort with a win in optional claiming/N1X company against a few of these. I think this daughter of The Factor will continue to improve on the turf and is going to be tough here again today. Earth Strike (6) ran three times overseas before joining the Mark Casse barn last out for her stateside debut. She ran well to be ¾ of a length behind Saranya that day. She appears to have some ability and I would think she would also be improving here. Some of the others in here won’t have to dramatically to improve to beat the top two, so it makes sense to spread in this spot on deeper tickets. Princess Theorem (4) debuted on the grass at Chruchill, finishing about a length behind Saranya. She ran a strong race on dirt in her next try and earned a shot in the Golden Rod against the likes of Travel Column and Clariere. I thought she would have run better in her local debut on dirt, but perhaps she doesn’t love the surface here. Her dam is a graded stakes winner on turf, and she looked fine getting over the lawn in her debut. I think she’s playable, especially at 8-1 or higher. The same could be said for another 8-1 shot here in New Boss (3). Handling the turf is not a question, as she looked really good winning in optional claiming/N1X company while sprinting last out, beating her rivals by open lengths. I am little curious about if she can get the distance off the two and a half month layoff, especially seeing as how her pedigree leans sprint. However, she’s definitely more enticing than some of the others and could be a live longshot here.

Race 10:

There’s another N1X allowance here as the nightcap, this one for Louisiana breds going 1 Mile and 70 yards. The morning line favorite is Who Took The Money (4) who was a very sharp debut winner at 6 Furlongs with state bred maiden special weight company. You certainly can’t knock him after that effort, however, his pedigree definitely leans sprint, and while he may be better than these, I’m trying to beat him with a few price horses.  Bayou Jam (2) moves up in class while working the restricted claiming conditions this meet. His last three have been solid, and Beschizza has been able to work out some strong midpack trips. I think he’s live while moving up the class ladder. With the scratch of my top pick, Good Old Charlie (7), I’ll upgrade Master Intuition (1) on the rail with James Graham. I thought his last, which was his first race in the Desormeaux barn, was decent, showing a few minor trouble lines. He’s had many chances, but I could seeing him improving in this spot. I’m siding against second choice City Park (6) who usually runs credible efforts, but hasn’t won in almost 13 months despite many chances. He strikes me as an underneath horse that I’ll leave off the rolling exotics tickets.