Fair Grounds Racing Preview – 3/7/2021 – By Eric Solomon

A nine race card wraps up another week of racing at the Fair Grounds. A stakes quality allowance on the grass in race 8 will be the featured race this afternoon. Adam Beschizza has had a strong week and climbed within 5 wins of leading rider James Graham. Meanwhile on the trainer side, Ron Faucheux and Brad Cox each won a race on the Saturday card, continuing their tie for leading trainer, three wins ahead of Tom Amoss and four wins ahead of Steve Asmussen.

Race 1:

The opener is a multi-conditioned claiming race for four year olds and upward that have never won two races or three year olds, running with a $12,500-$10,000 tag. The two principal horses for me are the two with the least amount of experience, which isn’t always a bad thing at this level. Passageway (6) is the lone three year old entered among the sextet and the lone horse with more than one trip to the Winner’s Circle. He was a much the best winner two back with straight three year olds, then struggled while moving up in class and catching a sloppy course last out. First Contact (1) was claimed by Broberg last out facing N2L horses with the $15,000-$10,000 tag (he was claimed for $15,000). He had some trouble at the start, which may have thrown him off his game as his previous two efforts were solid.

Race 2:

Louisiana bred N3L claimers, running for a claiming price of $20,000-$15,000 compete in the first turf contest of the day. Ripittotheright (2) is very logical here after two strong wins already on the grass at the meet. He draws the rail, which is ideal for his front running style. There’s other horses that like to be forwardly placed here, so it won’t be a cakewalk, but he will be tough to beat in here. If the pace gets too hot, Jaci’s Royalty (1) may be an under the radar type that can pull off the upset at a decent number. He won his last two turf starts at Evangeline before going on the shelf. His last was washed off the turf and his effort wasn’t great. He’s now second off the layoff and getting back to his preferred surface. Reluctant Warrior (9) is main threat to the favorite in here after beating state bred multi-conditioned claimers last out on the grass. He’s only been off the board once in six tries on the Stall Wilson Turf Course here. He has dramatically improved since joining Shane Wilson’s barn this past summer.

Race 3:

$5K N2X claimers that are three year olds and upward travel one mile on the main track. One three year old, Heavy Duty (6) is entered here, taking a steep drop in class. He draws a pretty weak field for the condition, but I’m not sure he’s good enough. I’d like to find someone that I’d feel confident that can beat Deanos Cape (4), as I don’t love the drop after being claimed for $15,000 two starts ago, especially when he had a less than ideal trip last out. I don’t think he’s a great favorite, but I think he can sit a better trip today just off the pace and run by the front runners, who haven’t had much staying power in their last few starts. The most likely horse to challenge the favorite is likely, Life On The Road (7),  who makes some sense as he was given every chance as a $450,000 purchase before headed to the claiming ranks. He won on debut in a slow two year old race in 2019 at Ellis, and got as close as third with several attempts at the N1X or the N2L allowance levels. He changed barns and resurfaced here last month after being away since August. He ran a beaten 4^th against a better field. If he can build off that race, he can contend. Data Load (3) maybe another one to use on deeper tickets. He looked very good last year beating maiden claimers with the $15K tag here last February. He didn’t run again until November, and hasn’t looked as good since returning and facing winners. I think his game might improve while getting back to two turns.

Race 4:

We have a state bred maiden special weight for three and up on the turf here. Six of the 11 in the body of the field are three, three are four years old, and there’s a five and six year old maiden as well. This race is absolutely wide open, so coverage and value are definitely going to be important. Brad Cox sends out Mutsa Got Lost (8) who was a decent third in his only turf start. He’s been gelded since his last start, and his pedigree, Hit It A Bomb out of a City Zip mare, definitely leans turf. He’s logical, but he’s likely going to be overbet and go off at way too short of a price for a race like this. I’ll use him, but I’ll be trying to beat him. Bitsy’s Other Half (7) is the five year old, but he’s lightly raced, with some gaps in his running lines. His two turf efforts are by far his best and he looks to be the lone speed in here. Toss his last when the race came off the turf and he could be tough to beat if he can replicate his 12/11 race. Smarty Alex (3) has a live look if he can work out a better trip than his first race on this course two starts ago. He, too fell victim to an off the turf race last out, and he put forth a dull effort. He had some traffic issues while taking the overland route in his local debut two back. He ran competitive races with open maiden special weights in the fall at Remington and should run a better race today. Irish Bayou (11) is another one that is interesting, making his second start on the grass this afternoon. He debuted on the grass in December and was 5^th beaten 4 and ½ lengths, behind a few of these. His next two races came off the turf, and they weren’t bad efforts. I think turf is where he’ll run the best though, and he could be dangerous if he can work out a trip from post 10.

Race 5:

More Louisiana breds go in the fifth, as we have older fillies and mares than have never won twice, running with the $5K tag. This race is a little tricky, as two horses from two of the big barns, Adina (4) and Ezee Enough (8) look to take most of the wagering attention, and both are definitely the most consistent. However, just about everyone in here has a least one race in their form lines that could be good enough to win here. The problem is that poor recent form muddies the picture as to who might be a longer priced horse that could step up here. Adina was beaten at this level last out, sent off as the 3-10 choice, chasing home the winner. The third place finisher did come back to win, so maybe that race was a little better in terms of quality. She was claimed by Asmussen personally, and returns to the same level of competition. We saw this yesterday with another Asmussen horse that came up short as the favorite, but I still think the intention is to win quick with these horses. From a speed figure standpoint, 6 of the last 8 races from Ezee Enough (8) probably put her in the Winner’s Circle at this level. I don’t love the drop two starts removed from being claimed for $12,500, however, Faucheux is part owner, and I do believe beating the national stables for trainer title in his backyard means something. Maybe the one to throw in on deeper tickets is Lil Peastoch (11). She debuted at Louisiana Downs this summer and beat a $12,500 maiden claiming group by 14 lengths. Now I don’t think she saw much talent that day, and she hasn’t come close to regaining that form while facing winners. She was claimed two back and tried much tougher last out. She returns to this level with an outside draw and Murrill comes back to ride. If she can clear the field, she might start to feel brave and keep finding late.

Race 6:

This turf sprint is a maiden claimer for fillies and mares three and up, running with a tag of $30,000-$25,000. I’m going try a pair of second time starters in here, both getting on the grass for the first time. It’s My Tune (2) is my top pick, after showing a little speed and fading in an off the turf maiden special weight spot. The winner that day won again facing winners for the first time, so that race has a bit of a live look. She drops to maiden claiming for her second start, which is a good angle for Norm Casse. She’s sired by Mizzen Mast, who produces winners on all surfaces, and her dam sire is Bernstein, which has been a really good turf sire, especially for Casse’s dad (think Tepin). Glitterary (9) is another one dropping from an off the turf maiden special weight into this maiden claiming spot. She didn’t run much at all on dirt, but her pedigree, Declaration of War out of a Galileo mare, definitely leans turf. I’m not in love with any firster here, and the horses with turf experience aren’t wowing me. I’ll cover with My Tommy Lee (1) though, who is dropping to the maiden claiming ranks after four tries in maiden special weight company. Her debut at Belmont was solid, but she hasn’t been able to run back to that effort since. She was beaten by Inajiffy last out, who came back to beat a nice allowance field on Thursday.

Race 7:

State bred N2L $12,500-$10,000 claimers go 1 Mile and 70 yards to kick off the last pick 3 of the afternoon. I’m trying to beat the morning line favorite Love That Warrior (3) as I don’t think his dirt form is as good as his turf form. He’s also running for low percentage connections. While that isn’t an automatic toss for me, I don’t think this one will offer wagering value or is an obvious choice here. I am expecting an improved effort from Half a Bite (5) going back to two turns after coming up short in a sprint race with slightly better. He’s in the third start of this current form cycle, and his efforts this past summer show he has the ability to compete at this level. I don’t think anyone can go with him early, and I expect him to keep finding late. Perfecture (8) is the lone three year old in the group, coming off a win with state bred maiden claimers. There is some upside, and he’ll have to improve to score here. This field is not very deep though. I don’t love the 7-2 morning line, and would like for those odds to go up before playing him. My Guitar (6) is coming off a decent effort with softer company. He has been improving throughout the meet, so I think he can handle the rise in class to run a credible effort in this spot.

Race 8:

Checking the box for one of three conditions gets you in to today’s featured allowance. This race is for N3X horses, N4L horses, or horses than haven’t won twice in 6 months. With those conditions, we get a good mix of stakes quality horses against horses that are moving up the class ladder. I’m trying to beat the morning line favorite, Spectacular Gem (6), again in this spot. He was really good, winning back to back races in Kentucky this summer, including the Kentucky Downs Tourist Mile Preview at Ellis. He tried Grade 1 company in the Turf Classic on Derby Day and was overmatched. Since, then, he’s been a little flat, not showing the same kick and tenacity he showed earlier on in 2020. Perhaps the class relief and cutting back to the flat mile will help. I still think he needs to be respected on class alone in this spot. I’ll cover with him, but I like two others better in here. My top pick is Dontblamerocket (3) whose last win came in the Colonel Bradley on this course last year. He was second in the Muniz in 2020, behind Factor This, who was in great form at the time. He faced Spectacular Gem twice last year and lost to him at Ellis and finished ahead of him in the Turf Classic. He needed his last race off the bench, which was a disaster on yielding turf. He was very wide on both turns which compromised any chance he had that day. He likes the local course, winning 5 of 11 times here with 3 more second place finishes. I think he rebounds today and I definitely think he offers more value, at least on the morning line, than Spectacular Gem. Argentello (4) just missed in a photo in the Diliberto Memorial, beaten by next out stakes winner Logical Myth. Prior to that, he went off form a bit in August and September, but came back to running his typical effort last out. He’s run big races off these brief 2+ month layoffs in the past, so that doesn’t bother me here. Brian Hernandez will most likely have him in a good spot if he’s good enough. This is a big class test for Two Emmys (2) who is coming off a win in N2X company last out. He definitely loves the local course here, never finishing worse than second in four tries. He’ll need another forward move to win, but he’s definitely playable at 6-1 or better in here, and worth adding to deeper rolling exotic tickets.

Race 9:

The get out race today is for $12,500 Louisiana bred maiden claiming three year old fillies. This race is wide open, so I’d be looking for some coverage here. I think the two turn experiment did not go well for Opps My Bad (4) last out, who was wide on both turns, and allowed to walk home when was she clearly beaten. She drops in class and returns to a sprint, which, based off her pedigree, is probably what she’ll do best. She adds blinkers, comes back to a fast track, and switches to Colby Hernandez, which is an upgrade right now. G’s Squeeze (2) runs first off the claim for the potent Beschizza/Faucheux combination, which has won 39% of the time in 46 starts over the last two seasons. She was third, beaten less than four lengths when dropping to this level for a lower percentage outfit last time. She, too adds blinkers in hopes of getting involved earlier on in this 5 and ½ furlong dash. Custom For Aly (11) beat G’s Squeeze last out, and has been improving steadily in three local starts. She still hasn’t matched the speed figure in her debut at Delta in November, but she’s getting closer. Her trainer, Steve Flint, has had a great meet and she gets a rider upgrade to Murrill. Our Rebel Girl (8) is a longer priced horse who could improve off the claim in her third career try. She hasn’t shown much in her first two, but Foley has good numbers off the claim and leading rider Graham takes the mount, which is a significant upgrade. Puzzling Priority (6) wasn’t awful in her debut with slightly lesser. She moves up a notch in class, but certainly could improve off her last, and isn’t the worst horse to add to deeper tickets.