Fair Grounds Racing Preview (Louisiana Derby Day) 3/20/21 – By Eric Solomon

The biggest day of racing in Louisiana is here, featuring a monster 14 race card, highlighted by the Louisiana Derby. This is a great betting card with some competitive races and some vulnerable favorites. There are two pick 5’s (Starting in Races 1 and 10) and four Pick 4’s (Starting in Races 2, 4, 6, and 11). The winners of the Fair Grounds Oaks and the Louisiana Derby are guaranteed entry to the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby, and it’s likely that these races will produce multiple starters for both races. Many star jockeys are in town to ride here today, including Irad Ortiz, Jose Ortiz, Luis Saez, John Velasquez, and Joel Rosario.

Race 1: The Crescent City Oaks

Louisiana bred three year old fillies go 1 Mile and 70 yards in the opener, and this race features a filly that could be special! Australasia (2) is an undefeated filly who has won her three career races by a combined total of 21 and ½ lengths, including two wins against state bred stakes company at Delta. She broke her maiden here and returns now with a nice string of works to prepare for this start. She’s bred to get better as the races get longer. If she runs a big effort here, it wouldn’t surprise me if she took a shot in open stakes company (Maybe a race like the Black Eyed Susan). Someone is going to have to take a huge step forward, or she’ll have to seriously regress to lose in this spot. Take the free square in the early Pick-5 and try to find value elsewhere.

Race 2:

When I was on Redboard Rewind last month following the Risen Star day card, I talked about looking forward to playing against Dolder Grand (7) in his next spot and that is my plan for this race. I thought he had great trips and every opportunity to break his maiden in both of his last two races, but he came up short. He was beaten by solid horses in Sainthood from Pletcher barn and next out allowance winner Big Lake. However, he now gets an outside draw after being able to save some ground in his last two starts, and the Mark Casse barn has been ice cold at this meet. He may beat me a short price as he may just be better than this group, however, I think he’s vulnerable here. I’m interested in seeing the second start from Cross Check (3). He debuted in the aforementioned maiden special weight race on Risen Star Day He was away slow on debut and wide on both turns, before finishing 6^th, beaten 12 lengths. He’s a well-bred Nyquist colt from Godolphin and Rosario picks up the mount here. Asmussen sends out a pair, including a live first timer in Road Bible (1). I think thisson of Pioneerofthenile is expected to be a good one. He was purchased for $610,000 and has been working well for his debut. It seems like the word is out, as 3-1 is a pretty low number on the morning line in a race like this. Alejandro (2) came back with an improved effort off the layoff last time to get up late to be 4^th in the faster of the two maiden special weight heats on Risen Star Day. Irad Ortiz picks up the mount on this grandson of Rachel’s Alexandra. On deeper tickets, there could be value with Cool Rags (5) and Happy American (6). Cool Rags (5) was my pick to beat Dolder Grand last time, but threw his head right before the start and got spotted the field a few important lengths early on. Hehas had tough trips that he couldn’t overcome in his last two. I think he’s better than what he has shown, but this field might be a little tougher for him, and I am concerned that the gate antics are becoming a habit. I think he’ll be competitive with a clean trip though.  Happy American has been steadily improving and ran a very sharp race last out to get third in the same that Alejandro came out of. He looks like he could be rounding into better form and definitely could be overlooked in the wagering.

Race 3:

A dozen Louisiana bred maiden special weight three year olds sprint six furlongs here. Half of the field will be making their debut today. I think some of the firsters are live, but I prefer the horses who have run. I think Gold Punch (5) may be ready to run a big race after failing twice as the favorite at Delta. He’s been chasing fast paces in the both of the five furlong dashes and coming up a bit short. He stretches out to six furlongs and had a real nice bullet work here two weeks ago, which was the fastest of 93 workers at 4 Furlongs that day. Ranch Badge (1) has two decent efforts on the main track here after a dull turf debut in December. He ran well for the tag two back and followed that up with a decent second back with maiden allowance company. No Pedigree, who beat him last out, was an allowance winner the other day. Two of the first time starters are the two morning line favorites, Bourbon St Tappin (2) and Micajah (7). Both have been steadily working, but neither barn is great with first time starters. I’ll cover with them no deeper tickets, but I prefer to look for a price.  Cryptorithm (10) has been working at Louisiana Downs and ships down here for his debut. Jason Meaux doesn’t train a ton of horses, but he gets the ones that he does train to run. I think he’ll get an aggressive ride from Riquelme to put him in position to win if he’s good enough.

Race 4:

The first turf test of the day is an allowance for fillies and mares who have either never won two races or have never won $10,000 other than maiden, claiming, starter, or state bred. Happy Sonrisa (7) may be worth a shot in here as she has been rounding in to solid form while facing restricted claimers on the grass. She has dominated her last two races, beating $15K N3L claimers by 4+ lengths nine days ago. Broberg claimed her and sends her right back to the races while retaining the services of leading rider, James Graham. This is a big step up in class, but I think she is live in here against some that have struggled to break through to get their second win. Ella M’a Souri (1) is one of two horses trained by Cherie DeVaux in this field, and I think she has the better chance of the pair. She was a little dull last out when dropping to this level from stakes company. I liked the way she was running over the summer though, and I think she’s one that will be better stretching out to nine furlongs here. Peter’s Kitten (2) has fallen off form in three starts at this meet, however, she moves to the Mike Maker barn in hopes of finding her 2020 Southern California form. She’s been beaten by several of these in her last few starts, so this feels like a now or never spot for her. DeVaux’s other horse, Three Flamingos (4) is one I will save for deeper tickets. She broke her maiden at Kentucky Downs two back in her 8^th career try. She followed that race up with a decent in an 11 Furlong race at Churchill. She might want to go further than the 9 Furlongs here and she might need a race before she gets back to her better form. If her price floats up over her morning line though, she might be worth using.

Race 5:

This feels like a race to take a stand, and Koolhaus (5) is where I landed, hoping to get a little value on this Brad Cox second time starter, who is 9-2 on the morning line. I like betting back horses that lose action for a bit in their debut, then show they can gather themselves and re-break. He did that in a good maiden race, where he ended up closing to get third behind Warrant and Wild For Wyckliff (6). There looks to be a lot of early speed signed on to this race, and his closing ability could serve him well. Geroux picking up the mount only helps his cause. Tulane Tryst (2) reemerges after scratching a few weeks ago due to a minor ailment. He ran a strong performance on debut, behind He’s In Charge, who was recently a game second in allowance company, coming close to matching his debut effort. He’s worked a few times since being scratched and seems ready to go here. He’ll likely be a short price, and there’s a lot of other speed signed on. I don’t love the inside draw for him under those circumstances, but he could prove to just be better than these. I’ll use him as a saver on deeper tickets.

Race 6:

Ten three year old maiden special weight foes go one mile on the grass here. It feels like this is the spot for Hidden Enemy (8) to graduate. He’s been right there in his last two when he’s been beaten by next out winners Palazzi (stakes winner) and Hot Stove League. He’s had several decent works since scratching out of an off the turf spot last month. Irad Ortiz taking the mount is never a bad thing. I’m looking for an improved effort from Weather Prayer (3) while getting back on the turf. He ran on late to be 8^th in his debut after getting shuffled back to 14^th. I thought he was a sneaky play last out before his race was taken off the turf. His effort was dull that day, however, his pedigree suggests that turf is going to be where he runs his best races. Jose Ortiz picks up the mount here. Don’t sleep on 20-1 longshot Pharoahswheel (10) trying the turf for the first time here. He showed a little interest before backing out of a fast maiden special weight sprint on the dirt. I like this one getting on the grass, and while first time turf isn’t a winning angle for Camejo’s horses, his horses definitely run better in their second career starts. I think he’s sneaky underneath here and one that could add value on deeper tickets.

Race 7:

I think Bold Confection (8) has a huge shot in this maiden special weight this afternoon. She debuted in a solid maiden special weight race on New Year’s Day, where she finished 2^nd, beaten by next out winner Save. She followed that up with a dull two turn effort, fading badly late in the slop, in a loaded field. Between the added distance and the sloppy track, I am willing to draw a line through that race. Jose Ortiz gets the mount today on this one that I would love to get 6-1 on (ML), however, I’d be good playing her at half that number as she feels like the most likely winner. Played Hard (9) has some flashy drills for a good first out barn, and seeing how her connections paid $280,000, there are expectations that she could be a good one. She feels like the one mostly to challenge my top pick. On deeper tickets, Firingtithefront (7), who showed some interest early in her debut, before fading to 4^th, might be worth a look in her second career try. Seascape (6) debuted for Dallas Stewart with older horses a few weeks ago. That wasn’t a great field that day when she finished third. This is a step up in class, despite facing only three year olds here, however, I suspect she will improve after getting a start under her belt. I’m completely against Rookery (3), much like I was last month. She’s had many tries and hasn’t been able to step forward. Maybe she’s one to use underneath, but at that number (3-1), I think there’s much better value elsewhere.

Race 8: The Costa Rising Stakes

A full field of Louisiana breds sprint 5 and ½ furlongs on the turf. This is a clever spot for Tom Amoss to enter Grade 1 winning dirt sprinter, No Parole (2), as he tries the turf for the time. With the exception of the Woody Stephens, he’s struggled with graded stakes company. He’s been dominant against Louisiana breds though, and not many horses are as quick as he is from the gate. Violence has done well as a turf sire, and his dam sire, Bluegrass Cat, has also had winners on grass. If he takes to the turf, this would open a lot of doors for him, especially in a year where the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint is at Del Mar going 5 Furlongs. While he is the one to beat, I think you need to cover with some horses in here that are known turf commodities. Afleet Ascent (8) is cutting back to a sprint after finishing 7^th in the Dixie Poker Ace three weeks ago. He struggled in this race last year, but he was away slow and never was able to get involved. He showed he can close into a fast pace, which is likely what he’ll get here and Johnny V. gets the call. While I think the favorite is the most likely winner, I’ll use this one on top in the Daily Gallop H2H tournament over No Parole, just because I think his place and show payouts could be higher than No Parole’s across the board payouts if he wins. Plus, there’s no guarantee No Parole will have the same success on turf as he’s had on the main track. Monte Man (6) just keeps running quality races. He has won 17 times in 45 career starts and he’s finished second or third another 14 times. He’s won more on the dirt, but he’s 3 for 4 on this course at this distance with his only loss being a second place finish in this race last year.

Race 9: The Crescent City Derby

There’s a big field here, but it’s going to hard to look past the logical favorite in Who Took The Money (2) who is 2-2, and has never been challenged. However, I’m going to try to beat him with the Asmussen trained Unanimously (7) who closed a ton in the mud to beat state bred allowance foes last out. It looked like he was fighting the track early, dropping far off the pace up front, however, once he got rolling, he closed impressively to get up in time. He’s made three starts and has improved each time. I think Talamo will have him a little more forwardly placed early on, and I’m hoping he can get up over the favorite. Despite having a pedigree that looks to lean towards sprints, Who Took The Money improved significantly when stretching out two turns for his second career start. He does wheel back in two weeks, which makes me a little nervous after such a huge effort. He’ll likely be close to even money, and he probably deserves to be. However, I think he could be a little vulnerable on the quick turnaround.

Race 10: The Tom Benson Memorial

This is a pretty wide open race, and I’m going to try to beat the favorite, Dalika (3), who was the winner of the Al Stall Memorial last out. She’s a nice mare that always gives an honest effort, but she’s never won two races in a row, and I think others are more enticing here. Pass The Plate (8) is my top pick as an improving four year old filly. It’s been a while since she’s been on a firm course, and there’s no guarantee she gets that today. However, she was really good against top horses of her generation last year (Harvey’s Lil Goil and Sharing). She won here two back in the Pago Hop and followed that up with a solid third last out. I think she gets a better pace scenario today to set up her late run. Joy Epifora (7) was beaten only two in the Stall last out. She’s second off the layoff today, and despite having won more races on the main track, I think she is a better turf horse. I think she offers some value in this wide open race. Catch A Bid (12) returned to the races at Sam Houston last out and tried to take them all the way in the Jersey Lily. She got a little tired late that day, making her first start since July. She prefers a little give in the course, and even if the course is labeled firm, I think she’ll take to it nicely here.

Race 11: The G2 New Orleans Classic

This is not the deepest rendition of this race, and I think the two morning line favorites, Owendale (2) and Roadster (1) are vulnerable. Owendale keeps running solid races, but hasn’t won in his last six tries. You have to go back to the Oklahoma Derby in September of 2019 to find his last graded stakes win. I’m going to use him as a saver, but I want to try to beat him with a price here. Roadster hasn’t been seen since last March when he was second in the San Carlos. He hasn’t won since winning the Santa Anita Derby in April of 2019. He has joined the Stidham barn, and certainly could have a productive 2021 campaign. However, at his 3-1 odds on the morning line, I’d prefer to watch him here. I think Olliemyboy (3) has a shot at a big price in this race. He’s cleared his first two allowance conditions at the meet in style, beating Cowboy Diplomacy, who came back to win this week. This is only his 4^th career start on the main track after running on Tapeta five times at Woodbine last year. I worry a little bit that he could be pace compromised, but he handled that two back when he was much closer to a dawdling pace. I think he has another forward move in his third race off the layoff. Enforceable (5) exploded two starts back to beat optional claiming/N2X horses by 8 lengths. He returned to Earth last out when facing Maxfield in the Mineshaft. Beschizza might be aggressive and try to put him on the front end since there is no dedicated pacesetter here. Chess Chief (6) is another graduate of the N2X condition at this meet which has produced some very strong races with solid fields. He came back to finish a decent third in the Mineshaft and was third in this race last season. Dallas Stewart’s barn has been heating up at this meet and this one has been gradually improving.

Race 12: The G2 Mervin Muniz Memorial Classic

A dozen horses go in a solid edition of this Grade 2 stakes. Colonel Liam (5) is one of the more exciting four year old American turf horses in a while. He’s lightly raced, but he has been living up to his lofty expectations as a $1.2 million dollar purchase. He got a perfectly timed ride by Irad Ortiz to nip his stablemate, Largent, on the wire in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf in January. He’s following in the footsteps of 2019 Horse of the Year, Bricks and Mortar, who went from that race to this race, on his way to a Breeders’ Cup Turf win in the fall. He is a bad trip away from being undefeated in four career turf efforts. He is clearly the one beat in here, but he’ll be a short price in a big field and there’s plenty that can happen. I’m going to take a price stab with Pixelate (12), hoping that Luis Saez is able to navigate a respectable trip from the outside post in here. This horse always shows up and never runs a bad race. He was wide in the Pegasus Turf last out when he was beaten three lengths by Colonel Liam. He’s versatile enough that he can rate off the lead or drop back and come with a late closing kick. Unlike Colonel Liam, he is proven on this course, winning the Woodchopper in December and finishing a close second in the Black Gold last February. Captivating Moon (3) is one I’ll add to deeper tickets, assuming he’ll go here instead of the New Orleans Classic where he is cross entered. He’s been a better turf horse than a dirt horse in his career, and he seemed quite happy to get back to the grass when came home first at 43-1 in the Fair Grounds Stakes. There’s some other front end interest to keep Factor This (1) honest here again. That could be enough to set up his over the top move at the end. I’m playing against Factor This as his form from last year has really dropped off in his last three races. I thought the Fair Grounds Stakes set up beautifully for him last month, on a course he loves, with some give in the surface. He was flat again though, and I’m wondering he’s starting to lose a step at age 6.

Race 13: The Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks

In the Rachel Alexandra, Clariere (6) and Travel Column (8) were much the best, finishing 6 and ¾ lengths in from of Moon Swag (2), who was the best of the rest that day. They are both beautifully bred fillies with legitimate Kentucky Oaks aspirations. However, their final time came back a little slow for this level of competition, leaving the door open for several others to take a legitimate run at them. Of the horses that I think have a live look in here, Li’l Tootsie (4) is the one I’m most interested in seeing here. She was dynamite two back crushing maiden special weight foes, including Euphoric, who came back to win a maiden race by 10 lengths and an allowance race by 5 lengths yesterday. She tried two turns in the slop and ran well that day. I think she is eligible to improve in her second try at two turns and her first one on a fast track. She might be able to get the jump on the top two and spring the mild upset. I still think Clariere (6) and Travel Column (8) are major players here as both have working tremendously since their hard fought duel last month. Both are bred to be great horses and I don’t think this is the last time they will square off. I think Clairiere has the slightest advantage over Travel Column, but that margin is super thin. I was on the Souper Sensational (3) train last time out and I’m not sure it’s possible for her to have had a worse trip. The ride was not Declan Carroll’s finest moment either. She gets the rider upgrade to Johnny V. who won two races here last month. I’ll think she’ll get a better ride and as a result, should get a better trip. I’m not sure she’s as good as the top three, but I think she’ll be given the chance to try to prove she is. Zaajel (1) is the one that’s really throwing me in this race. Despite her win, I did not like her effort in the Forward Gal when I watched the race live. When I watched the race back, I still wasn’t impressed as she was slow to get into gear, circled up and never really kicked clear, despite holding off the late comers. That effort looked a whole lot better on paper though when Wholebodemeister came back to shock the field in the Davona Dale last month. She’s bred to get two turns, and her debut was really good. She wouldn’t shock me if she won here, but I definitely have mixed feelings.

Race 14: The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby

In the first two races in this series, Proxy (4), Mandaloun (6), and Midnight Bourbon (7) have been the dominant trio, with Midnight Bourbon taking the Lecomte in gate to wire fashion and Mandaloun returning the favor in the Risen Star when adding blinkers. Proxy split them in both starts, finishing second, and now he puts the blinkers on here. They are joined by Southern California invader Hot Rod Charlie (5) who quickly emerged on the scene when he finished second behind Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 94-1. These are the four that are likely going to decide the race. I think the pace will be honest for the distance as there’s a lot of runners that want to be forwardly placed, especially from the inside. I think the added distance and the pace scenario sets things up for Hot Rod Charlie (5) to come get them late here. I think back to the ride that Rosario gave Idol in the Big Cap two weeks ago, and that is the kind of trip I’m envisioning here. He stumbled at the break in the Bob Lewis and still fought like hell while being stuck in between Medina Spirit and Roman Centurion last out. Both were no match for Life Is Good when they tried to tackle him two weeks ago. However, O’Neill gave this guy two extra weeks and he spots him very smartly here. Mandaloun is the main threat and the one to beat here. He has improved in each of his four career starts. He looked much more confident in the stretch while adding blinkers for the first time last month. I thought he rebounded well from being a little flat in the Lecomte. Midnight Bourbon feels little boom or bust here for me. If Talamo sends him early, I think he’s going to end up going faster than he wants to the early stages here. If he tries to rate him, much like the way Corrales did in the Iroquois back in September, he may be able to move forward. He’s improved considerably since going to two turns and he’s bred to get the distance. Proxy ran on well in both starts, but he never looked like he was capable of winning either race. Perhaps the blinkers will help him here, but that hasn’t been a great angle for Stidham’s horses. I think he’s an exotics player again, but I’m going to be leaving him off my Pick 4/5 tickets.