Future Stars Pick 5
A fun new bet is being offered on Saturday that features the 5 major Breeders Cup preps that are taking place on the dirt for two year olds at Santa Anita, Keeneland, and Aqueduct. $1 minimum, 15 % takeout, and no CAW money are all very appealing so I’m definitely planning on getting involved!
BAQ 7:
The scratch of Senza Parole obviously shakes up this race and this sequence, but it probably becomes more attractive from a wagering standpoint. Still, I struggled narrowing this race down as I could make a legitimate case for nearly everyone. I actually was ready to press up #6 Paradise City, but it turns out she also withdrew from the race so I’ll be spreading in here. New morning line odds that I use here were posted by David Aragona on Twitter.
#1 Snowyte (3-1) and #5 Scottish Lassie (6-1) return from the same race that was won by Quickick(came back to finish a strong second in the Alcibiades at Keeneland). Both ran strong races on debut and have plenty of reason to move forward in career starts number two, especially for trainers that aren’t great the first time out. Perhaps a slight lean to the #5 at a better price. #9 Social Fortress (5-1) is a tough call, but is another that I’ll be using prominently. She has looked sensational in both starts, but both of those races came against less foes. She does have plenty of early speed though and I love that she’ll be cutting back to one turn from an outside post. Those are the three that I’ll be pressing because I think they have the most upside, but I will have “all” on at least one ticket.
BAQ 8: 2,5,7
This feels like a good spot to take a swing against the heavy favorite #10 Chancer McPatrick (6/5). Yes, he has been impressive in both of his career victories, but he also had perfect set-ups in both of those races which is more of a concern since he doesn’t possess any tactical ability. And while he does have an edge on speed figures, it’s not a huge one and his fellow two year olds can improve in a hurry at this stage. #2 Tip Top Thomas (7/2) is the obvious alternative after a strong performance on the Travers Day undercard. He had plenty of early speed to get himself into position, and showed grit and determination to get nose down on the wire. That obviously came against a talented field and should prepare him for this stakes race.
I actually thought I could make the argument that #7 Smoken Wicked (12-1) ran better than the favorite in the Hopeful. He did all the dirty work that day, setting a sizzling pace and staying on all the way to the wire to only get beaten three lengths. His early pace rival was well-beaten and that race absolutely favored the come-from-behinders. I love the continued progression in each race so who’s to say where his ceiling is? He doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, so this draw should give his rider more options than last time.
And then the other Pletcher #5 Uncaged (9/2) is one I’ll be using as well, it feels like he could get forgotten in this spot. He was overshadowed by Ferocious (more on him later) on August 3rd, but he ran pretty well himself that day and earned a respectable figure for that performance. I like that he came from just off the pace so he’ll have a chance regardless of how fast they go. If he can improve off that 84 Beyer he earned in early August, look out.
SA 3: 8
Single “A” in this year’s Oak Leaf stakes as #8 Non Compliant (2-1) is one I’ve had my eye on for awhile. I first noticed her in a workout over this summer where she went heads up with subsequent Del Mar Futurity winner Gaming and she looked every bit as good as that rival. She surprisingly (to me at least) did not go off favored in her debut on Pacific Classic day, but she was facing another buzz horse in the Mark Glatt trained Margarita Girl. Those two put on an impressive show as they drew away from that talented field by nearly ten lengths, with Non Compliant getting the better of that rival in the final stages. I was most impressed with her ability to take dirt behind rivals and still be willing to run by a fast horse in the stretch. The figure came back solid and she galloped out huge so the added distance should be to her benefit. Now she gets a favorable draw that should keep her out of trouble, so I’m fully expecting her to dominate this group and be a leading contender in next month’s Breeders Cup.
KEE 9: 1
Another single “A” in the Breeders Futurity as #1 Ferocious (8/5) looks formidable. He was super impressive in his debut at Saratoga when he earned a monster 96 Beyer for that effort. He came as a big favorite in the Hopeful and ran a strange race. He was close to a fast pace down the backside, but then it appeared he was struggling badly in the far turn and was going to finish nowhere. He somehow found a second gear turning for home and re-rallied to just get beaten by a strong rival that got a perfect set-up. Interesting race, but turns out he threw a shoe at some point so perhaps that explains his struggle in the middle of the race. Now he faces a field that doesn’t appear to be as talented and draws a cozy inside post. There’s not a lot of speed on paper so he should be forwardly placed throughout and be tough to beat with a repeat of his first two efforts.
SA 9: 1
I’m a little surprised to see #1 McKinie Street (9/5) is favored here facing three Baffert rivals, but he is the pick nonetheless. He should still provide plenty of value as a single as I’m sure the public will be using Baffert prominently in their Pick 5’s. Simply put, I thought he ran the best race by far of today’s rivals that return out of races on that closing day card at Del Mar. In the Futurity, he was away well to get good position, stalked a hot pace into the turn, battled between rivals in the turn and at the top of the stretch, and stayed on well to finish second. Good gallop out and he was well clear of both Citizen Bull and Getaway Car. His newfound ability to pass rivals could prove useful on Saturday and I love that he’s drawn inside where he can set the pace or tuck right behind the leaders. He continues to look on XBTV in the mornings so all systems go for Mckinzie Street in the pay leg.
BAQ 7: 1,5,9
BAQ 8: 2,5,7
SA 3: 8
KEE 9: 1
SA 9: 1
$45 ($5)
BAQ 7: ALL
BAQ 8: 2,5,7
SA 3: 8
KEE 9: 1
SA 9: 1
$24
