All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
Quick Thursday Review
Early Pick 5 paid $110.20 which eludes to I had the right idea strategy wise, but 3 of 5 does not pay.
R2 Sometimes it’s good to laugh at ourselves. I have written and BET !! Bubbly Champagne so many times!! I am thankful I do not keep up with ROI win/loss on individual horses. Of course I had ZERO $$ on her.
R5 WATCH THE POOLS I was not planning on betting Highway Harmony but at the time 1-2 min post… I think.. 9/5 ish.. So jumped in and someone crushed her late to the point the win mutual paid the same as the place.
R6 Justinqueso saved the day. Was he going by the Saffie horse late… Maybe / Maybe not… But the point for me was the details of a horse that I put in my Stable Alerts months ago based off works from early June while actually researching a different runner. Details, details, details….
R7 Motown Mika won convincingly for JK Sweezey on the tapeta .. Comes into play in today’s early pick 5.
Early Pick 5 Will update Post scratches with a ticket but not sure how much I am willing to invest into this early pick 5 as I do not have any strong opinions.
.50 play = $40 That is singling the first time dirt runner in Race 2 but if include the 1 & 5 the ticket cost becomes $120. I would rather look for value elsewhere today.
R1 – 2 6 8 9 11
R2 – 7 (With the scratch of the 2 here leaves singling a horse trying the dirt for the first time) B – 1 5
R3 – 5 7
R4 – 3 5 6 7
R5 – 8 9
Turf Pick 3 I am going to try to get some value on a horse in Race 10. Not a lock or crush bet for me but maybe away to get more value.
R1 – 6 8 9 11 ( I am not going to use the 2 here but is one that could put you out)
R5 – 8 9 B – 7 10 Going to play a ticket with 8 9 here for slightly higher increment then a ticket w 7 and 10 base $3 Wager. ( Simpler just play 1 ticket for $48)
R10 – 3 Random Harvest
Race 1 is for two year old fillies in for 25K on the grass. If indeed stays on the turf, there is not a single filly in here that has routed on the turf.
Not having a strong opinion here I will look to get some coverage.
A LINE with no top selection.
6 Altamira Sur did not impress on her debut in July while not taking any money. Has had a couple average grass works recently while not asked to do much but nothing negative. D’Angelo is 16% with ALL second time starters running for a tag and 1 for 8 turf routing/2ndStart/MDClaiming.
8 Take Me To Paris did not take any money in her two starts but they did think enough of her to ship to Saratoga. And of those that have routed on the tapeta in here this once race is better than appears on paper.
9 Timber likely will be favored with Irad up. added blinkers last time and arguably has the best route race of those entered. Crichton is 25% 1st off the claim the last 5 years and that number jumps to 45% with Irad aboard.
11 Shancelicious ran for a tag on debut for Ward who has only had 5 runners the last 5 years make their second start routing on the turf in maiden claimers(0 for those 5). Does have a on the grass on Dec. 6th with Navy Seal who is older and stakes placed. This filly I thought held her own.
B LINE would consist of 1 Miss Ocala(SCR) and 2 Camm’s Princess who both have had route experience while getting on the turf for the first time.
C LINE I would toss 3(SCR) 5 12 on a spread ticket.
Race 2 8K N3L falls under the tread lightly category.
A LINE
2 Sonadora(SCR) Girl broke her maiden going 7 furlong here at Gulfstream and Barboza’s barn is going well. Nothing clever here.
7 Pasajera will race on the dirt for the first time and she always worked well over the dirt. Distance is no problem and gets outside post so can stay out of the kickback in a small field.
Others to consider with the scratch of the 2 elevates the 1 and 5 having proven dirt form.
1 Pharoahs Baby Gyal has a win at Laurel over the dirt and if Reylu gets loose on rail it would not shock me, but hard to back this one after the last 3 performances.
5 How Bout Dat does have a 7 furlong race that fits here, running 2nd in July versus open claimers. Issue is of her 14 other starts she has never ran even close to that race.
Race 3
LONE A is the 5 Mr Tyson with Irad up after facing open bred company his last two starts, but does have a couple question marks. Last 2 races were originally carded for the grass and then was entered in another MSW Nov. 8th on the grass but was a VET scratch. Now suddenly we are settling for the tapeta? The assumption is the addition of blinkers was the reason for running poorly on Oct. 11th, I guess we will find out.
Once you get past the favorite this one looks up for grabs…. with first time geldings, 1st off the claim, etc
Race 4 is a spot I could see using the ALL button.
A LINE
3 One of One I will use for the obvious reasons but I do not see taking 8/5 as she seems a touch better going 5.5 furlongs and has lacked enough speed to be forward going 5 furlongs. Then you have the Irad factor along with D’Angelo is 22% first off the claim the past 5 years and takes a slept bump when adding Irad on those to 29%.
5 Minxy is a bit of wildcard in here having not ran since February and now moves to Sweezey who immediately enters on the tapeta. Barn is 3 for 6 at the meet and has done well in the past with horses trying the tapeta for the first time.
6 Moor Strength at 20-1 ML. If this mare runs last I would not be surprised nor would I if she won. Obviously 2024 has not when well as she has failed to show the speed she once did in 2023. She is 2 for 3 going 5 furlongs on the tapeta and has placed in listed stakes at big prices. Would expect at last some kind of improvement second off the bench.
B LINE if spreading as not many in would be a total shock.
2 Reassess’s last race was mediocre and her best race was for D’Angelo back in February but her recent efforts she has not showed the same speed.
4 Vayesta look similar to the 2 horse. Lacking the speed to give me confidence going 5 furlongs.
7 Clay Soldier falls under the trend above, although the outside post is a benefit. If the pace is pedestrian and they let this one hang around could upset.
IF using all above might as well use the 1 as well.
Race 5 I do not have a strong opinion on any of these.
A LINE
8 Samburu for Maker looks to be the horse to beat. This gelding has been super consistent and now gets some class relief. Zayas rides this turf course very well and gets an outside post on a horse with tactical speed.
9 Rotterdam comes off a big break and now shows up in D’Angelo barn after being no worse than 2nd in 5 of 6 races.
B LINE
4 Breakwater will be an underlay with Irad up and honestly is the only reason I am considering this one.
7 Mutaawid when gets the pace to close into has ran some nice races here at Gulfstream.
10 Burnin Turf’s best races have been on the lead or pressing the pace. Not an ideal post with a few quicker than him on his inside.
OTHER
6 Swashbuckle is a bit interesting at a huge price. I would be more interested if was going a mile rather than the 8.5 furlongs. Has enough speed to get the lead and is 3 for 3 facing claiming company.
