All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
This is going up expecting to be OFF THE TURF AGAIN on Friday. If I am wrong I will make changes accordingly.
Will Update post scratches and with any late card plays… Hopefully with some results better than yesterday … Rotterdam getting run down at the wire was costly ….
Also Will try to have my Pegasus Early Card thoughts up early Friday with a deep dive of both MSW’s The biggest thrill for me Saturday could be NO MAIDEN CLAIMERS!!
OFF THE TURF FRIDAY – UPDATE WILL BE OUT POST SCRATCHES
The early Pick 5 has THREE! low level maiden claimers which screams volatile but surprisingly was too my liking.
R1 – 5 10 B – 9 11
R2 – 2 3 8 ( I will have at least 1 ticket singled to the 3)
R3 – 1 4 7
R4 – 3 B – 8 9
R5 – 4 7 8 9 B – 1 2 11
Tapeta or Turf P3 Post Scratches – Unfortunately lack of tapeta form in these races and rain makes one my favorite wagers a pass for me today.
Race 1
A LINE
5 Gray Lark was no match for my top pick last time but gets the addition of Lasix and Irad rides back is always a positive. I would expect Irad to have this one a bit closer early today.
10 Not One Less is the horse to beat and was clearly better that Gray Lark last time. The Irad money will provide value on the horse that is most likely to win. This filly stayed on well last time and galloped out decent for the level with the winner.
B LINE
9 Maxine Magic was a vet scratch at Woodbine after the poor debut but no clue exactly why. Casse has good numbers in this spot winning at 21% the last 5 years with 2ndStart/Tap/Rte/MD CL.
11 Diamonds and Thrills is one to include if taking money. Barboza does a great job playing the claiming game and would need to move this filly forward to compete with the 2 favorites.
Race 2 (Handicapped for the Tapeta) – Expected to be off the Turf. If remains on will update accordingly.
A LINE
2 Talbingo broke his maiden impressively for the level dirt sprinting and new stretches out over the tapeta. The negatives are no one reached in to claim last time, now faces winners for the first time while trying new things and Irad jump ship to horse that I have questions about.
3 Chaplin at 8-1 is doubtful stretched out for the first time on Dec. 7th and was clearly best although did get a almost perfect first run trip. His last is better than the paper suggest when facing a very tough group. It does appear Tyler jumps ship to ride the 2 but picks up Egan who rode this one to victory the race prior. I originally had this horse as a Lone A then backed up a bit when considering the jockey gymnastics…. I will have a WIN BET here regardless.
8 Break Out I guess could win here having some nice 3 year old class. Was a vet scratch on two occasions between the Rushaway and the Dec 8th race. Although did run well last time over the grass this colt beat a fairly weak group of N2L’s and I do not think could have ran any faster. Second off the bench so maybe has more.
Race 3 –
A LINE
1 Wink of an Eye looks to go off favored after running a decent race last time at this level. The rail draw and lack of early speed is a bit of concern.
4 Senorita Nomas had nothing in the stretch for the 1 last time. She was unhurried from the rail letting outside horses go to get outside position and was giving up ground through the turn but stayed on decent grinding away in the lane. I like the cutback and although I was unable to watch any recent works there is a work from Sept 14th from the gate that was really nice for the level. She stumbled badly then was under a hold motoring along catching my eye.
7 Game Energy has showed a bit of speed and basically stopped on two occasions. Barn has good numbers with third time starters and when they get Edgar up are usually live. The Debut at Tampa is best race of the group even beaten by 21L’s. I will make her my top pick by a narrow margin over the 4.
Race 4 I have a Lone A but as I have said many times before having Lone A’s in low level maiden claimers is risky.
LONE A – 3 Tonight ran a big race for the level last time when nailed late. This colt’s last race buries this group BUT changes barns and has had two dull works since the claim.
B LINE
8 Ayman takes a bit of class drop after running well last time. Was pinched at the start and had to take back then got a nice rail trip being clearly 2nd best. Will need to improve for a barn who is 1 for 9 in this spot and 67% in the money.
9 Blue Got In – I will most definitely have some coverage to this debut runner for Abreau. I like the work on Oct 18th when this colt was best over maiden claiming debut winner Right Angle. Barn does not start to many at the level over the tapeta but it capable winning first out with any runner.
Race 5 (Handicapped for the Tapeta) is another race that will likely be moved the tapeta that muddies the waters from a form standpoint. I am likely going to mention every runner in here at some point as I was searching for reasons to be against.
A LINE
4 Escape Room has ran well over the tapeta but also was the beneficiary of near perfect trips the last 2 times on the tapeta. Arguably ran her best race to date last time on the grass and her only 3 bad races oddly were run while getting lasix.
7 Tinky Abarrio I have to have this one on tickets. This filly is now 3 for 3 over the Gulfstream Tapeta but never been a route of ground. Wilkes is on fire and I think this barn has a big 2025 ahead of them.
8 Fantasy Performer’s only tapeta try she hung 3 wide and made an early move running on 1 paced but finished well versus a decent group.
9 Rachel’s Song will be my top selection here. She was the runner up behind next out stakes winner Ashima last time and has only been out of the money on debut.
B LINE
1 Boston Rose with dettori could trip out from the rail and I have her figs close to the ones listed above. The 2 wins over the tapeta came in short field during the fall meet.
2 La Scalonetta has not ran on the tapeta but does have a work on the page but no video. Vet Scratch Dec 27th. I want to assume that tapeta work was very good on the 17th which is why Irad ends up here.. Just a guess
11 Public Defender has some nice rices in a short career. Not ever been on the tapeta.
