All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5, plus any strong plays, stakes, MSW late on cards. You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
There is no quick review of Thursday as I would rather not put myself through the memory of being absolutely wrong about everything….
Early Pick 5 – Post Scratch Ticket with no Changes..
R1 – 2 6 7 8 9
R2 – 4 7
R3 – 1 2 6 7
R4 – 6
R5 – 4 5 9
Race 1 is the first race of the new year that I think the addition of Lasix has stuck out to me, but in a group that I am lacking workout information this is a total assumption.
A LINE
2 Attestation makes his 3rd start for Sano who is 2 for 19 in this spot. No work information regarding the tapeta surface.
6 Valid Sense takes a slight drop in class and the 5 furlong race on Nov 29th is the best of the group by my figures.
7 Stable Agent had a decent debut getting an education while not overly ridden by Paco that day. Orseno is 2 for 15 in this spot.
8 Mega Don had 2 starts this past summer versus tougher company before being put up until after the New Year which is where my assumption comes into play. Just says that this colt maybe bled and Irad lands here as well.
9 R Money Moves goes first out for Saffie who is 2 for 15 the last 5 years with First Timer/Sprint/Tapeta/for a Tag.. This colt has been on the work tab for a long time without being entered??? The works I was able to watch there is nothing negative. I would assume Irad’s agent could have got this mount if wanted it but opted elsewhere and Edgar got the shaft for the bigger name … (I’ll tuck that away for another time)
B LINE – Everyone else … lack of information on several runners which always gives the chance for an unexpected result.
Race 2
A LINE
4 Splurge has been super consistent sprinting over the tapeta and has been facing slightly tougher since her last win facing straight N2L’s. Tried the dirt last time and ran decent for the level , but now gets back to her preferred surface.
7 Lita keeps Irad aboard for the 3rd straight race and has a slight edge on the rest of the group. I just could not put her as a LONE A after the last effort when she broke sharp and Irad had her under a hold from the start, but when asked just ran along one paced with no real excuse other than being wide.
B Line/Other – SCR The 5 Pasajera is the only one I see that is a question mark. This will be the first time she will be sprinting on the tapeta since getting Lasix and there is no pace in here that might let her sit closer than appears on paper.
Race 3 could be a matter of who gets the better trip.
A LINE
1 Gulfstream Mary D could be loose in here from the rail and has the classic Speed N Fade look that lasix could improve.
2 Breezethrutime has ran respectable taking some money in her last 3 starts and she is fast enough to be sitting right off the 1 getting first run on a possible stopping leader.
6 Miss Morgan makes the A Line because of the presence of Irad. She tries the tapeta for the first time for new trainer that I know nothing about looking for his first WIN!
7 Take Me to Paris is the horse to beat in my opinion. The Nov. 23rd race is not far off the best in the field and last time added blinkers running the best figure of anyone in here by my numbers BUT that was on the grass. Reyes does very well routing on the tapeta and if they let this one go off anywhere near that 5-1 morning line I will have at least an action WIN bet here.
Race 4 is where I am going to make a stand but this single comes from a strategy standpoint as I found this sequence to be very tough and is necessary to have a playable ticket as I refuse to play a caveman ticket.
Strategic LONE A – 6 Eastern Extension ran 2 decent turf sprints at Laurel versus MSW’s before dropping in for a tag. Kathleen O’ Connell has only claimed 22 horses in the last 5 years and only 1 of them has won next out which does not sound very positive. BUT!!! She is a very sharp horsewoman and when she reaches in to claim one there is a reason. The work on Dec. 15th is not on video to see for myself and as I am writing this I do not have a clocker report yet. I am going off a clocker report from Dec 27th for Little Town Street who worked with Eastern Extension on Dec. 15th both sounded to work well on even terms and Little Town Street broke her maiden out of that work.
Now I took an entire paragraph to tell you why I like that horse but I do not see as a total lock.
Quick Notes on others as many are doing something for the first time.
1 Smokin Jack Flash will run on the tapeta with Blinkers for the first time.
2 Rocky Chitu was training well a year ago prior to the April 7th start when ran as a first time gelding, but has not been seen since than.
3 Nando (if I included 1 More) would be the 2nd choice for me and would make a stand alone B after running very well last time while 3 wide nearly the entire race.
4 Notorious made his debut Oct of 2023 then was entered on March 31st 2024 (was listed 1st time gelding that day) only to be a Vet Scratch.
5 Sunday Song 1st time sprinting on the tapeta.
Race 5 is a very interesting one that a scratch or two would open this one up to some strong vertical plays. If that happens I will update accordingly.
A LINE
4 Ever Dangerous is the horse to beat which has been said many times over the last couple years, but this gelding last win was in 2020!! There is not a scenario I could put this horse alone on top.
5 Lucky Curlin is the class of the field on paper but is another I cannot trust alone. Claimed last time from Maker while coming off a layoff…. Gets Irad so that does scream live …
9 Ocala Dream I will put on top but not enough confidence to back with dollars… This one has always been solid routing on the turf and now will make his first start for Saffie. STAT – 1st Start after switching to Saffie with Edgar up the past 5 years 27%.
B LINE
2 Matta will make only his second route attempt in 27 starts. Is likely to be on the lead so if spreading would be one to add, but more of underneath play.
8 Our Country is also more of vertical underneath play. Has some nice races scattered through his past performance with some nice races over this turf course. The last you toss was hung wide and made a very early move on the back side.
Race 6 Is a MSW lacking information and is a race I think any of them could win. But I wanted to mention the horse in here that is likely to be overlooked.
1 Empressstrikesback is the one that caught by eye in the limited works I could find. Trainer has only ran 4 different horses in a young training career and I do not like the post. Oct. 6th worked from the gate with an unraced mate. This filly broke in couple lengths back of mate then quickly caught mate and rider took a big hold with this filly tugging along. When the pair got on the backside rider was sitting back in the irons trying to pull this filly up. Not saying she will win , just saying do not leave her off your tickets.
