So how many people are scratching their head about Tapit Trice not being in the Holy Bull ???
I have never bet in a Derby Future other than 5 bucks or some token amount until this year. Owning Quarter Horses and having owned several thoroughbreds at the track there is just simply too much that can go wrong to prevent them from ever having a chance. I still do not think it is a good wager other than just doing it for fun and being Ok with loosing. Well then in November when Tapit Trice made his debut and ran 3rd. I went to searching to see what odds I could get?, but I found nothing. Pool number 3 was after he broke his maiden…. I got 45-1 which is not near as exciting as I had hoped for after his debut. I believe he will relish more ground when he gets it and maybe Pletcher puts him here looking for some maturity as he is still green. After he broke his maiden he was looking around in the gallop out like he had never been to town. He may not win here today but I do not think that will be much of a negative, maybe even a positive to help his price in his next start going longer.
Also wanted to give a quick mention on race 11 which has several that would not surprise me if they win. Stephanie’s Charm was my Pick a month ago and nearly got to Cairo Consort and she does get a little extra ground here. But the reason for the mention is what is Heavenly Sunday this one has yet to be asked for much in either of starts. If takes to the firm Turf at Gulfstream could run off the screen.
Race 5 MSW 1 Mile on The TURF
1 (C) Just So – according to what information I was able to find he is the 3rd foal out of multiple G1 winning mare Turbulent Decent. Just So is the first one to make it to the racetrack that I found stats on. Both other listed Siblings are Ireland bred so that information is questionable. By Justify and in Chad’s barn, Colt figures to be a player here. NOT SO FAST … Of course Chad 20% 1stStart/Turf/Rte/MSW blah blah. With Tyler in this scenario 1 for 14 in the last 5 years. That 20% drops to 10% when at Gulfstream Park only.. Last time Chad won with a 1st Time Starter at Gulfstream park in a MSW was nearly 3 years ago….
2 Gipsy Chief makes his US Debut for B Lynch after running 2nd in all 3 starts in France. Jose in saddle, few reasons to like this one.
3 (B) Sara’s Shaman debuted on the Dirt and stopped fairly quick, after being a complete runoff in the pre-race. Had some hype prior to debut, I do not imagine will see the 12-1 ML. Do not discount this one. Barn is 17% in this scenario.
4 (A) Mutaawid’s last race he plugged along at back having to be encouraged to stay in race, asked early turn and had a big response. Rolling in stretch changing lanes a couple times and the last move to advert traffic lost some momentum or would have won that day. The sluggish start is a bit concerning, but should improve off of that race and will be tough to beat here.
5 (B) King’s Fortune will take money with Irad up, and I expect to have a good showing of himself but will have to contend with Mutaawid.
6 Carlin Clan goes from Casse to Falcone barn maybe they make the right changes to step this one up a notch, but I will pass.
7 Captain Jack goes out for a barn that is 0 for 42 with 1st/MSW/Turf/Rte…
8 Windsor Park has been working well in all my previous workout notes. Barn well strike with a first timer every now and then, If spreading would include.
9 Jamestown showed speed in last but tank was empty when turned for home. Jose goes to the 2 here. Love the Pedigree but with the rail out at 35ft going a mile. Will have to do a much better job of staying today. WORK NOTE – Workmate Sri Lanka has ran 2 good MSW races.
10 Lucky Lucky Luke
11 Ghost Coast debuts for Walsh Barn who also has the 9 in the race. Tyler usually would get first call here I believe but opts for the Brown runner. Reyes did ride a debut runner for the barn in early Dec that was beaten by a neck at 45-1. I have no Old Workout info on this one.
As with Most MSW’s at the championship meet several viable options here. But will have a lone A top pick in 4 Mutaawid and will be a single in my early P5. But using the 1, 3, 5 not out of the question, I do not particularly like the slow response from Mutaawid but experience usually improves that. 3 Sara’s Shaman is price horse to keep an eye on. With Mutaawid’s running style in his last always a chance he could run into traffic here.