All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
Brief Thoughts on each race after the Pick 5 will be added to this post!! Friday evening or early Saturday morning.
The last few years on Pegasus World Cup day the MSW races have produce several interesting runners and this year starts off with two MSW’s. Little Something Different will mention each runner with any information I may have for Race 1 but no need to do that in Race 2.
Early Pick 5 UPDATE WILL COME Post scratches – KEEP IN MIND Early first post and in the past with these early post times, changes coming in have been an issue.. They come very late sometimes followed by a second round of changes.
R1 – 1 2 4 5 10 12 B – 3 9 11 15
R2 – 5
R3 – 2 6 9 11 16
R4 – 5 7 B – ALL
R5 – 4 7 11 12 B 1 9
TURF PICK 3 Today is a big GO!! for me
R9 – 1 11
R10 – 1 3 8 11
R12 – 6 7
Race 1 is scheduled for a mile on the grass for 3 year old colts and the big question unfortunately is, Will this remain on the turf? I would be not surprised if Race 1 and Race 3 are moved to the tapeta but we will cross are fingers. Handicapped for the TURF!
I will be using several and with so many option I would only have an action wager at most. The 1 and 5 are co top selections.
A – 1 Wakan is a bit interesting after having a very rough trip last time getting in all kinds of traffic cruised to the wire in hand only being beaten by a couple lengths by a gate to wire winner. This colt was an AE Jan. 18th and did not get in the race with Irad named to ride that day. I will put this one on top at this price.
A – 2 Ranger Battalion is a half to stakes placed turf router Full Nelson who runs in Race 3 and happens to be my top selection there. He was showing plenty of speed in the mornings this summer in New York prior to a debut where he ran respectable after getting loose in the post parade. Mott is only 8% the last 5 years with second time starters turf routing in MSW’s, but those same parameters with addition of Junior at Gulfstream Park 4 for 19 and 58% in the money.
3 Peak Performance is one I do not have much information only have seen one leisurely work at Payson Park. This is the first foal out a dam that was 3 for 4 in a short racing career that included winning the Grade 2 Davona Dale in 2018.
A – 4 Kunan I have absolutely nothing on this colt other than what you can already see for yourself. The Dam was a graded stakes winner routing on the turf and has a couple siblings that did decent on the track as well. Cox is 22% the last 5 years debuting long on the grass in MSW’s and this will be the first runner in 5 years to do so at Gulfstream assuming we are on the grass of course.
A – 5 Interim Analysis for Casse who is 16% the last 5 years. Turf/Rte/MSW and slight jump to 20% while at Gulfstream. Recent Turf work Jan. 3rd was best over English Law who broke his maiden Dec. 7th here at Gulfstream.
6 Bulldoze is won I have not seen any turf works on. It’s Pletcher with Irad so will take some money but not for me as Pletcher debuting long on the grass in MSW’s the last 5 years is only 7%.
7 More Therapy is interesting with two decent sprints versus New York company. This barns horses have ran decent at this meet but ultimately he looks and moves like a sprinter.
8 Thorseness I have not seen work on the turf but the 2 works I did watch from Palm Beach Downs were not much to see. Pletcher debuting long on the grass in MSW’s the last 5 years is only 7%.
B – 9 Love That Symphony I have 1 old work note from August on the dirt where he was much the best over an 0 for 2 Maiden Claimer. Galloped out very strong that day running away from a struggling workmate. The debut at Keeneland is typical for this barn who is not looking to win first out. Vicky Oliver is only 2 for 35 the last 5 years with 2nd time starters going long on the grass in MSW’s. Overall the last 5 years shipping to Gulfstream with all runners 0 for 38. With all that being said….. She would not have shipped down here if she did not think this colt had a chance and the jock she has up does not hurt the case either.
A – 10 Deep Dusk could be a sneaky bomb for an underrated barn. The only work I have saw of this runner was way back on June 28th on the grass where this colt was a bit green but full of energy and not particularly easy to stop on the backside. Caravaggio has produce several debut winners going long on the grass. Ultimately I wish I could see a couple more works but one I will include on a ticket at a huge price.
B – 11 Up for an Oscar looked fit on the Jan 19th work recently. Chad is 18% the last 5 years with Debut runners going long on the grass in MSW’s, but once again only 7% at Gulfstream Park with those. I normally fade these firsters of Chad at the meet and with the wide post this one is no exception.
A – 12 Dublin’s Knight is one that I really liked in the two works I saw. This colt looked like a season vet for Walsh who is 14% the last 5 years debuting long on the grass in MSW’s. The post is a big concern but I will still include this one.
AE 13 Warrior Wayne is drawn outside with no speed.. Hard pass
AE 14 Change At Jamaica ran well last time from a wide post but versus maiden claimers.
B – AE 15 Global Prosperity ran very well last time with an inside post but if draws into the field will marooned far outside. Even so I would use if gets into the race after showing good speed last time although it’s highly unlikely he would clear this group.
AE 16 Oasis Prince needs a lot of help to draw into the race, but if that happens I would be slightly interested in. If ands buts… If was draw inside in this field I might even have on top.
Race 2 – UNLEASH THE KRAKEN!
LONE A – 5 Disruptor has a good chance to be the shortest price of the day. I have this colt working as far back as May but only now making the starting gate. May 27th Looked good with Wild and Free. Jan 3rd is when things heated up when this colt did things easier that Vassimo who won impressively at Tampa and I assume will be the favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby, Disrupter held the advantage on the gallop out doing nothing wrong.
Pletcher is 24% the last 5 years debuting with Dirt Sprinters in MSW’s, With Irad 30% With Irad at Gulfstream Park 37% Now you take all those parameters and change that to only races going 7 furlongs, MSW,Dirt,w Irad , at Gulfstream – 9 for 18 and 67% in the money.
Underneath is just as it looks 6 and 7. I have watched works on nearly all these runners, simply there was nothing else.
Race 3 – Handicapped for the Turf
Large competitive field that has the potential to have a meltdown pace and if AE’s draw in will be important to see where jockeys land.
A LINE If this race moves to the tapeta then the 10 and 15 would be in the A LINE and would make this race a complete mess as well.
2 Atone will make his 8 year old debut here at Gulfstream where his biggest win came 2 years ago winning the Pegasus Turf ironically that was his last win. This veteran seems to always show up and run well and arguably is the class of the field. With the inside post I think is a must use even though I think his best efforts have came going longer.
6 Full Nelson gets a big jockey upgrade today with Irad which comes with a hit in the value department. This colt ran a huge race last time when he nearly got to Cugino at the wire and was his best race to date. Is my top selection by a narrow margin as he now faces older for the first time.
9 Saratoga Flash set a quick pace in the Fort Lauderdale now drops in class while cutting back to a mile which is the distance he has produced his best efforts. Could be paced compromised with a lot of other speed to contend with.
11 Raptor’s is strictly a connection use having not seen enough of this runner to make a true evaluation.
16 Old Chestnut is deep on the AE list but is interesting if draws in and Tyler moves to this runner. Has enough Speed to get position even from the outside post.
B LINE
3 Beyond Stoked will get class tested here after only facing older once at Indiana. Huge work on Jan 12th when he earned that bullet doing things easily. The maiden breaker here at Gulfstream last year was one of my biggest win bets of the meet when Beyond Stoked got up in fast time beating a couple nice horses In a Jam and Oscar’s World.
13 Activist Investing would need to draw in and has not raced since Sept. 2023, Would primarily be a use if draws in and Irad jumps to this runner.
C LINE if you wanted to cover the unknowns
7 Armstrong has never tried a route a ground and one get a bump up if race comes off the turf.
12 Native Land will be facing older for the first time while trying the turf as well. I have become a big fan of Riley Mott the last couple years so have to give a shout out for this one.
Race 4 is very tough with some classy horses lacking tapeta form which means I will keep my money in my pocket.
A LINE is where I will use the logical horses with synthetic form but there are so many in here trying something new for the first time I am even leaning toward the ALL button
5 Sand and Sea I am in this mare’s fan club and her record on the Gulfstream Tapeta is near perfect, she can get race on the lead or sit off and shows up every time. Now I do think this is the classiest field she has faced but I will put her on top.
7 Dana’s Beauty is the other obvious horse to beat. She has never raced over the Gulfstream tapeta but is 3 for 3 at Turfway since moving into Makers care.
B LINE for me consists of almost every other runner.
1 Mo Fox Given will face older for the first time and makes her tapeta debut. There are other races this filly could have ran in and Casse has had her working Ocala so he knows she will handle the surface. Classy filly that has continually ran into tough horses.
3 Tutta La Vita has looked good working over the tapeta but never seen her asked mostly just maintenance type works. Irad rode her for her US debut and sticks around today.
8 Golden Ghost has a solid tapeta race here at Gulfstream Park that is just as fast as the favorites. She has speed and could be a thorn in the side of the two favorites.
10 De Regresso faces older for the first time after having a nice 3 year old year and has tapeta form that fits.
2 and 4 are both trying the tapeta for the first time if you wanted to try to catch a price
6 and 9 are the only two who have showed closing ability on the tapeta.
SO YEP THAT COVERS THEM ALL
Race 5 is the ever so popular turf sprint!! Of course the pace could get hot early as there is a ton of horses that want or need the lead, but that is normally the case.
A LINE – In a race where you can make a case for several I will take my chances splitting hairs with no overwhelming opinion.
4 Axthelm will need a miracle trip in here while likely trying get through a slew of horses stopping. I always want to have at least one closer and this one has done it before over this turf course. The negatives … He has never won without Lasix or versus this quality of competition.
6 No Nay Hudson is 1 for 1 over this turf course and his only other start going this short 5 furlongs was at Del Mar when Motorious went by him at the wire like he was tied. I think the 5 furlongs suits him and he can sit off or press the leader.7 Panther Island (ADDED) will be a late addition with the scratch of my top pick.
11 Reef Runner has hit the board in all 5 of his turf sprints while being drawn inside which is ideal, but this colt has never been drawn outside on the turf and my thought is maybe he can sit right behind or outside Coppola. Two back he nearly got to XY Speed and last time after having a less than ideal trip was one of only a couple making up ground late.
12 Coppola has has been a thorn in my side for a couple years now. NOT TODAY!! because is drawn in the 12 post, but he was in the 11 post last time when I was against. I have to quit discounting this runner for Romans because the bottom line is he is fast and loves this Gulfstream turf course where is 3 for 6. Most importantly he is likely the best horse in a questionable group but I still refuse to pick him on top.
B LINE
1 Johnny Podres is one of two California shippers entered and is the one I would choose from the pair. He shipped in early and gets Irad up who will look to save ground inside. I suppose you would include in multi’s from a defensive standpoint, but I think his best races have came going longer and down the hill.
9 Nobals has only had 4 starts since winning the Breeders Cup Sprint in 2023 and his only win since came at Woodbine over the synthetic. Since then he has shipped to Hong Kong due to fever then pointed to Fair Grounds to be rained off the grass… Just not the best storyline getting to this spot and I hate to take anything away from his Breeders Cup Victory but he absolutely tripped out that day.
QUICK THOUHGTS ON REMAINDER OF CARD and I will be brief as there is coverage everywhere for these races.
Race 6 – Is the male counter part to Race #4 and much like the 4th I do not have a lot of interest in this race. Generally these handicaps have consisted of the local tapeta but both have drawn some nice turf purposely entered on the tapeta which makes for a handicapping puzzle missing a piece.
Oddly enough I like the Chad’s in here.
4 Smokin T has the Oct 28th 2023 tapeta race that stands out to me when running third behind Wolfie’s Dynaghost.
7 Possiblemente will be great value in here after loosing to the favorite last time. Careful discounting this one he was slowly reeling Jerry the Nipper in last time and two back he beat Fly the W which is not an easy task.
8 Portfolio Company much like Smokin T has little experience over the tapeta but it is one solid effort from over a year ago.
9 Tidal Forces is 3 for 3 over the Gulfstream tapeta and all 3 races I have fast from a fig standpoint.
11 Jerry the Nipper is likely to go off favored after having one of the most unluckiest years in 2024 that I have seen a horse have, he ended the year running a big race when he got on the tapeta for the first time.
Also wanted to mention 2 Emmanuel which I am not using BUT is working like an absolute MONSTER!
Race 7
3 Chop Chop
4 La Mehana
5 Beautiful Love
10 Forever After All will be my top pick in here as she has been many many many times before! Oct 20th she got on the inside of the turf at Keeneland when battling with Chop Chop late and that was not where you wanted to be that day yet she still nearly won. Oct. 24th – Loosing to Mrs Astor is ugly on paper but she was best that day with a trouble tripped. Dec 26th she was reeling in La Mehana just ran out of race track.
Race 8 will come down to tactics and good chance they go way to fast. My strongest opinion about this race is the pace as I think there are a few that are going to try to run this field off their feet.
3 Rocket Can if you was on last time at 10-1 Merry Christmas as we likely will never get that price again. I do like him better at 2 turns but have always been a fan of this one. Junior knows you have to crank on him early.
5 Tumbarumba’s last win came here over a year ago and he has been very consistent, but he consistently waits on horses in the stretch.
8 Bourbon Resolve I like a lot in here but had enough negatives I could not put him on top. For starters he has not looked good in the mornings and Wilkes even worked on the grass a couple times.
Starting here – These last 5 races I will of course be playing Pick 5 and 4. Do not forget about Pick 3’s and doubles… LOVE THIS SEQUENCE
Race 9 I think the 2 favorites are far classier horses.
A LINE
1 Limited Liability can run all day and has a big chance today. Nothing creative or hidden here.
11 Bold Act is obvious as it comes but not found the winners circle since that huge win at Meydan.
Underneath
5 Anglophile is one I should have divorced 3 starts back but I am still stalking a bit.
Race 10
1 Raqiya was originally pointed toward the Breeder’s Cup Mile this past fall but connections chose to run in the Goldikova where she got a slow pace and I think Frankie left plenty in the tank never getting to the bottom of this filly. I had interest in her if she had ran in the Mile so of course I was all aboard in the Goldikova. She will need to run faster versus this group so hoping she has plenty more to give.
3 Be Your Best is 2 for 3 for Saffie and Edgar will put her in position to have a shot. She has tactical speed and enough to get the lead if Edgar chooses. Ran well last time with Papilio getting caught in traffic and now faces a tougher group today.
8 Papilio if a nice mare but very unlucky… Last time she did not even have a chance to run until the 16th pole… And I could list out trips for 30 minutes DO NOT LEAVE OFF YOUR TICKETS!
11 Bless My Stars was running late last time.. The experience Irad gained with this mare could be the different today. I expect him to get her in position earlier and it will be a matter of how much she has to do late.
Fades
7 Minoushka is going to take money and is a talented filly but always has an issue created by herself.
10 Sacred Wish is the biggest threat that I am not using. She is one paced, keeps catching soft field and just does not finish strong…
Race 11 – Big scratch for me.
LONE A – 2 Nic’s Style‘s lone loss came in the slop to Ways and Means. The inside post is not ideal with speed and pressing types drawn to her outside but I think she is simply better than this group.
This now looks to be a two horse race. I will have Emery on top
Race 12
6 Major Dude was impressive last time and looks to get the same trip again today.
7 Nations Pride is obvious. Do I think the 10 furlongs is too sharp for him? Nope … He is 10 for 19 facing the best horses in the world, all over the world. If he gets a trip who ever is on the lead best not be looking over their shoulder.
There are lots of interesting price horses in this field , but I will only mention one and then the fade.
13 Fort Washington draws into the field after narrowly missing Major Dude last time. He is o for 4 at Gulfstream but I think those 4 were some of his best efforts.
Now this is going to sound horrible….
I am sick of hearing about Integration. Maybe he wins here and they put him beside Frankel. Yes he has been impressive on some occasions versus inferior fields with good trips and all those 100 figs on his page I think are as phony as he is… Sorry NOT Sorry… And to save time in the next — You can put White Abbario on the same mantel as Integration…
Race 13 Short and sweet in the big one.
2 Saudi Crown is the horse to beat… If he clears from the rail then they will have to catch him. By his record…. They have a 50% chance to run him down GOOD LUCK
11 Locked – The post is a near disaster. If drawn better I would have him on top but he is not.. Plain and Simple I will still use as an A due to talent but this will be a tough task.
The only other horse I have any interest in is 6 Stronghold who has only been worse than second one time and that was in the Derby. His 2 previous races at this distance were not horrible but neither puts him in the winners circle here. The Malibu was going 7 furlongs but it was fast and he has never ran like that previously…
[…] We’ve got more written analysis on the card from John Pinder and Chris Cupples. […]