All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
Please feel free to leave Comments or reach out to me on Twitter (@c_cupples) with any questions and/or suggestions.
I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
Couple important things to get out of the way if you are just tuning in to racing for the week and/or weekend.
Junior Alvarado is out 3 weeks with an injury so lots of jockey changes.
TURF RAIL!!! – As we have seen in the past on big days there are two different rail settings for the day which basically is two different turf courses.
END OF THE MEET
I still am a bit under the weather and with so much weekend racing. I will not have Friday analysis this week which is why this is getting out early.
This also ends the Championship meet and my focus will shift away from Gulfstream Park.
Thank you to all those who have messaged me this winter with support and compliments.
CHANGES – Most of the handicapping was done before Tyler got hurt and before the clocker report was available… SO rather than delete items because of changes I will simply have notes beside labeled UPDATE – …..
THERE WILL BE A SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE – Possibly more than one. with TICKETS and some verticals I will be looking at but need to see scratches etc…
Apologies in Advance – I was not aware Nick and Brian was recording a full card audio but I had already 90% of this typed up so posting it anyway. But I listened to it earlier today(Thursday) and it sounded like I was proof reading this in my head… Well that is if I actually ever proof read
Race 1 is the first of many deep and wide open turf races on the card… Buckle up
A LINE – EARLY UPDATE – The 6 Won at Tampa on Friday so will be scratched.
1 Nantastic Beach is 3 for 7 over the GP Turf course and in top form right now with an inside post. Should sit 1 or 2 lengths off the pace saving ground tip and roll!! Rosario up so I will cross my fingers that he does not fade back through the field in what could be a lively pace.
B LINE
5 Ciao Check would be the next in line for even though is facing winners for the first time. Has been apart of some fast and quality maiden races before breaking his maiden last time. Fast enough to press the speed which is Samburu who is drawn to his inside.
UPDATE – 13 Chicago Theatre we already know draws into the field. Post is a concern
UPDATE – 14 Greek Order also draws into the field and Dettori opts here over the 8. Post is a concern for here as well.
Others
2 Equivoque is trying the turf for the first time with Irad up for Pletcher.
10 Who’s the King is interesting getting back to the turf today in which will be his first time running on the grass while in Saffie’s barn.
Race 2
A LINE
2 Unclecharliesgift gets back to the dirt after what was a decent effort on the grass. Jan 29th was off slow and made a long grinding drive just missing third, Jan 10th chased a fast pace in a group that was blitzed by Air Combat.
Zito is 0 for 14 at the meet but this could be his best chance yet.
8 Avant Glory ran one of the fastest races of his career last time out at this distance and over this surface. Running a career best and being claimed is a bit of caution flag but Sweezey is having a great meet. Will be trying to wire this field again.
Others to consider
6 Awesome Beast I would use if either of my A’s were to scratch.
9 El Apagon is an unknown lightly import that I have seen no workouts.
10 Con Compania had no excuse last time although I did like the speed he had showed prior to the state side debut.
Race 3 looks wide open and I think a good opportunity to find a price.
A LINE
4 Hit That Review is the horse to beat in my opinion after two loses behind Mi Bago and has never ran for the tag. He did miss a little time after the last effort on Jan 1st. UPDATE – with the scratch of Kinetic Control I scratch into this one.
8 Kinetic Control is the price I want in here and may get a moderate win wager from me if the price is right. Dale kept this colt on the dirt in which I would assume was in search of a Derby runner but that dream is over for this Not This Time colt and now gets on what could be his preferred surface.
9 Forged Steel will get Irad today which will totally destroy any chance of a price. This colt has worked with top horses in Saffie’s barn all winter long so expectations have always been high and has performed well in all his turf routes with the exception of the KY Downs race.
B LINE
2 Classic of Course is the other runner trying the turf for the first time today but I prefer my top choice who actually has a turf pedigree.
5 Wakan will be given another shot by many here but I think is a cut below. I loved him on Pegasus day but that was versus maidens and when he got in stakes company the pace was a bit more than he could handle.
Race 4
A LINE
1 Silvology has slowly been on the improve and has rattled off two wins in a row here at Gulfstream Park including one a this 12 furlong distance. Keeps her pilot aboard and I think she is more tactical than she appears on paper.
6 Beach Bomb I was totally against last time but put on my tickets that due solely due to a couple friends like her….. Maybe she is better than I though but she got a soft pace last time and I am not to keen on that field. From a strategy point I could see tossing her today but appears to be the horse to beat.
Others
Yes the 2 Le Mehana and 3 Queens Regent are both classy but I am just over them both at this point.
4 Secaya (Credit HHH Racing Podcast – Last two works have been with Far Bridge ) She is making her first start in the states and is a bit of unknown but I will need to a race.
7 Infinite Diamond can be completely loose in here if Paco chooses but Bee Jersey going 12 furlongs on the turf?
Race 5 is the lone MSW on the card and has the usual big name barns. The majority of the time I usually find a workout or two that stands out but was not the case with this group.
A LINE
4 XY Prime was working solid for Castellano prior to debut. Delgado is 18% in this spot and 59% in the money.
5 Thought Control has kept good company in the mornings with nothing negative in several workouts I was able to watch. Saffie is 25% in this spot and 6 or 22 going 7 furlongs.
6 Mainstream’s March 16th work was done under a snug hold the entire way with nothing negative. Cox 20% here and 11 for 65 going 7 furlongs.
9 Total Sensation has been working with Makes Sense who starts from the stall outside this one. Both worked heads up with nothing separating the pair… I would assume Irad got choice.
10 Makes Sense had a solid string of works back in the summer at Saratoga and was entered Aug 31st but was scratched due to injury. Irad lands here so safe to assume he will be short price with good reason.
Race 6
LONE A – 4 Far Bridge is the class of the field but coming off a layoff while going 12 furlongs is not an easy task, fortunately for him I think this group is far from Grade 3 quality. He is 3 for 3 over this turf course and looks this looks like gift.
If I was going to try to beat Far Bridge I would look toward the 6 Padiddle who was claimed for a mere 25K two starts back was turned around by Abreau winning a MSW last time at this distance. Of course a big ask today going from Maidens to this spot.
UPDATE – Saffie scratches the 9 which allows Edgar to get on the 3 Cash Equity. This maybe the alternative to Far Bridge and I will be looking at the Far Bridge over Cash Equity Exacta payout.
Race 7 has zero to do with handicapping in my eyes. Its all about White Abarrio being in this race…… 2023 BC Classic Winner and 2025 Pegasus Winner but here we are facing an overnight stakes group in a race labeled a grade 3. YES he is suppose to win this race with ease. This race is about gambling or choosing not to. I am not building multi race tickets singling White Abarrio, I would rather put my money in other pools or use everyone but him.
OTHERS
2 Tuscan Sky is the logical second choice and is what you see on paper.
3 Lighting Tones is the stab for me. Claimed in July for 16K then did not make his return until Oct and came back much improved running 4 big dirt routes in a row including last time with getting beat by Mindframe and Steal Sunshine at 55-1 which was complete ridiculous price that day.
Race 8
A LINE
3 Tiz Romantic has found most of his success over the tapeta here at Gulfstream but his turf efforts are not far behind this group. And you have likely read one my fav…. Edgar with an inside post over this turf course!!!
4 Beyond Stoked is a horse I really like today but who is going to be in the irons? Junior gave this gelding a great ride last time saving ground and had to wait in traffic a bit which very well have been the difference of winning versus 2nd. Pegasus Day Flo put him on the lead which I think was a mistake. I have always like this Into Mischief gelding all the way back to 2023 when was one of biggest hits of the meet so maybe I am bias. I will leave as my top selection but Junior being hurt is a big negative at this point.
7 Kalik is a must use for me. At the time I am writing this I do not have ML’s but if this one was still with Chad Brown I guarantee the ML would be lower than what ever it is. Toss the last going to far…. Cut Back , Gets LX, Drops in class , all the obvious positives.
UPDATE – With the scratch of the 3 I am moving Enlighten into my A LINE
AE 13 Enlighten will need to draw into this field and would be a borderline A if that happened. The post is what pushes this colt to the B Line for me.
B LINE
12 Bonus Move will be on a mission to clear from this outside post and see how far he can go. Twirling Candy out of a War Front Mare that handled the distance and this colts only sibling won March 22nd in his second start going 8.5 furlongs here at Gulfstream Park.
OTHERS that will take Money
2 Drum Roll Please tries the turf for the first time and gets Dylan in the irons. Will be over bet while trying something new…
9 Sherlock’s Jewel moves back to the turf with Irad aboard…. Not for me but when Irad lands on these horses that leave me scratching my head….. Usually Boom
Race 9
A LINE – 4 6
4 Five Q is the horse that has a clear figure edge at this distance but comes with one negative. I am not sure how much she was aided by a bias last time at Oaklawn which every winner either was on the lead or no more than 2L’s off the pace with the exception of Justique who did close that day with this crazy rail trip.
6 Cassiar won on debut at Tampa for Shug who is 13 for 107 the last 5 years with first time starters dirt sprinting in MSW’s. Those previous 12 debut winners 7 of them went on to be graded stakes placed. Distance? She past the eye test and is a 1/2 to Bendoog who can hand a 10 furlongs.
B LINE – UPDATE 1 Paradise City I am upgrading a bit after seeing the clocker report. I already was looking at trying to key him verticals.
The Queens M G can beat me again today as she has done in the past. Admittedly I have never liked her and she blew up all my tickets last time she ran…
Exacta and Tri’s – With The Queens M G OUT!!!
I will be using the 1 and 7 underneath my two A’s horses….
Race 10
LONE A – 3 Love Cervere looks be being handled with care by Clement after the winning debut Nov 1st sprinting her second start did not come until 2 months later in the GingerBrew where she ran a better than looks second to Nitrogen. Form comments are another example do your own work – Should read – In tight first turn BOUNCED off rail then checked… She hit the rail hard and still settled saving ground and made a big run inside only to be nailed by Florida Oaks winner Nitrogen. Makes her second start around two turns and has plenty of reasons to improve.
UPDATE – WHO IS GOING TO RIDE Manny is up who is very capable and I will stick to my opinion of the horse but I would have preferred someone that has been riding this turf course.
B LINE – 4 10
4 It’s Witchcraft is one who threw a wrench in some of my opinions here. She needs to take a big step forward!!! Blinkers go on so maybe that is the key…. I am assuming Dylan opted here over another runner who I like in this race has me looking at this one.
10 Classic Q is the filly it appears Dylan is getting off of to get on the 2… This filly caught my eye back in November and she did not disappoint when breaking her maiden in her second start widening under a hand drive. Last time she got a bit rank early then slightly had to wait in traffic allowing some other to get the jump on her when finishing under a blanket for 4th. She draws wide and looses her regular pilot.
C LINE – 2 7 9
2 Mrs Worldwide has a right to improve making her second start around two turn after nearly getting home last time at 31-1.
7 Anna Goodbody is lightly raced, changes barns, tries the GP turf for the first time and is one I can’t just toss completely until I see some more.
9 Spirited Boss is the scary runner in here. Has never faced open bred fillies or been on the grass. She is another who caught my eye in workouts prior to debut although those were over the dirt.
CIVETTA – Yea I am doing it again… TOSS!!!! She does not finish races PERIOD. I thought maybe the blinkers last time might be the key but nope same dull effort late. Maybe she finds the right group with the right trip today but will hold ZERO VALUE in any pool….
Race 11 is one that I found to be very tough finding a reason to make a case for nearly every runner.
A little different here as I will start the conversation off with the favorite.
4 Knightsbridge very well might run off the screen. His first 2 starts of his career were impressive but they were not cut the clock off impressive….. Ran well in the Perryville but ultimately had no excuse and the race here at Gulfstream Feb 15th he was empty at the 16th pole. ANOTHER TOSS for me but if you just want to cash a ticket put him as an A. I may have a multi race ticket using everyone but Knightsbridge and if he wins by all means point and laugh…
UPDATE
A LINE
1 Howgreatisnate only made one start in 2024 and now makes his 2025 debut off a 9 month layoff. This gelding is 4 for 5 dirt sprinting with his lone defeat coming to Subrogate in a crazy fast race… Working like a machine!
3 Implementation is 0 for 4 at Gulfstream Park – Oh thats horrible right? Jan 24 ran 2nd coming off a layoff, March 2nd was getting to Kingsbarns and Vivircon whatever late beaten by 3/4 of a length in a very fast race, March 30th runs 3rd beaten a length, then ran into Gulfport and a very fast Clear the Air , you get my point… Last time this gelding ran very well going a mile.
8 Inveigled has to repeat that last effort without lasix which always gives me a bit of hesitation but all logic says this horse should be a shorter price than the eventual favorite. UPDATE – Is now clearly the horse to beat.
9 Playmea Tune Is going to take some money and I think a big player here, but I am not taking a short price on this horse.
B LINE – Is the rest ..
2 Loco Abbarrio last raced Dec 14th and I have no clue what happened that day but obviously something went a miss. Prior to that he has been very consistent and he is not that far off this group.
5 Gordian Knot has every right to improve… 2nd time for Pletcher / 2nd off the bench and now gets Irad .. But will be overbet.
6 Of a Revolution only made the starting gate twice in 2024… After a promising 3 year season in 2022. Saffie /Edgar Dirt Sprinting at GP !!
7 Great Navigator … Look down those running lines at the horses he has faced… When Cody’s Wish only beats you by 4 lengths you ran that day.
10 Going Up I likely will use because I have everyone else… But not a big fan of horses winning on the front end at Tampa.
Race 12 is an odd spot for me. Imagine you had been married and divorced 10 times then imagine walking into a room with all 10 former spouses. NOW Pick the one you like best….
A LINE – 1 6 11
1 Movin’ On Up was one of bigger cash bets during the NHC which tells you how much I liked her 3 weeks ago, but this is a tougher group and she needs to get faster. I have her on the A Line as a new face in a group that includes many that I am just over….
6 Breath Away has been very consistent and seems to run into someone slightly better more times than not. Maybe she has found the right group today but hard for me to get overly excited to run to the windows.
11 Five Towns is a bit of stretch but will be a massive price… I think…. Will need to get a trip in a race that has meltdown pace written all over it.
B LINE – 4 7 10 12
4 Be My Sunshine is one of those 10 former spouses. Her last win was in Dec of 2023.
7 Autumn Evening is trying the turf for the first time. She was working with Speak Easy in January and has showed plenty of ability on the dirt.
10 Ocean Club has races that fit but her issue is there is plenty of speed to contend with and the wide post.
12 In Our Time is potentially the best speed in the race as she has been plenty of times before, but once again she has drawn wide once again.
Race 13 is a free square in my eyes but will hold ZERO VALUE in multi race sequences or in the Win pool. But a possible Daily Double might be in play with some horses in the FL Derby that will take money aside from the winner.
LONE A – 9 Major Dude is a grade 2 horse running with a group of optional claimers and I have always thought he was better going 8 to 8.5 furlongs. A bad trip is only thing that gets this horse beat and it will have to be a brutally bad trip END OF STORY
Race 14 – The Florida Derby – As I am finishing this piece up the Morning Lines hit as I am typing this which is perfect timing.
LONE A – 10 Sovereignty is a horse I was not very high on for the Fountain of Youth as I thought his 2 year old numbers came up a bit light and all the word was he was not ready 75-80% ish… Needs a race … etc…. I firmly believe that was the case… Bill Mott says it then etch it in stone. Now 2nd off the bench naturally has to be more ready than last time… The exciting part of this race is the horses in here that will take money which will make Sovereignty a price worth betting.
LONE B – 8 Madaket Road had nothing for Coal Battle in the Rebel so now we are shipping to Florida dodging Coal Battle (Who similar to Sovereignty will have value Saturday due to others taking money) The positive is for myself is both Madaket Road and Sovereignty I have with 87’s by my figs but the negative is this is a new surface for Madaket Road and shipping across the country.
4 Disruptor will be over bet for Pletcher with Irad up. Jimmy Daily’s went by him like he was tied on debut and we seen the expected improvement last time but if that made you say wow then you are not watching many races. Would need to improve by large margin to hit the board!
UNDERNEATH
6 Jimmy’s Dailys is the horse I will try to get underneath. This colt was working with Owen Almighty all the way back in June and has continued to improve with each start.
