By William Humphrey ©
Race History: The first 200-point Kentucky Derby prep race, the G2 Louisiana Derby offers a purse of $1,000,000 and is the longest North American Derby prep, with a distance of one mile and three sixteenths. Almost as old as the Kentucky Derby itself, the Louisiana Derby was first run in 1894 as the Crescent City Derby before it was later renamed the Louisiana Derby, to honor the track’s home state. From its inauguration, all the way until 1988, the race was run over one and one eighth miles, before shortening to one and one sixteenths from 1989 to 2009. Churchill Downs Incorporated (the owners of Fair Grounds), then made the decision to move the race from eight weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby to five weeks prior, as well as increasing the distance back to one and one eighth miles. In 2013, the race became part of the official ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ and in 2020, the distance was increased again to one mile and three sixteenths.Black Gold became the first horse to use the Louisiana Derby as a springboard to Kentucky Derby success in 1924 and it would then be another seventy-two years before Grindstone replicated the feat in 1996. Despite no winner of the ‘Run for the Roses’ coming from the Louisiana Derby between 1924 and 1996, the race still had a significant impact on the Triple Crown. 1975 winner, Master Derby went on to win the Preakness Stakes and No Le Hace (1972), Golden Act (1979), Woodchopper (1981) and subsequent Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes winner, Risen Star (1988) all won in Louisiana before hitting the board at Churchill Downs. More recently, Funny Cide (2003), Country House (2019) and Mandaloun (2021) were all beaten in the Louisiana Derby before scoring under the Twin Spires. Other notable winners of the race include Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and Kentucky Derby third place finisher, Gun Runner (2016) as well as G1 winners Hot Rod Charlie (2021) and Epicenter (2022), who both went on to finish runner-up in the Kentucky Derby.
Key Trends Since 2014
Market Trends: Bettors have tended to have a good grasp on the Louisiana Derby, evident by the fact that 9/10 winners since 2014 had started as one of the top three betting choices. By My Standards (2019) was the one exception, having started at odds of 22/1 but if you remove him from the equation, the average odds of the other nine winners have been a skinny, 2.67/1. The average odds of all thirty horses to have hit the board since 2014 is 8.4/1 and so there is still potential to get more creative when playing vertically, however bettors should really look towards the head of the market.
Draw and Running Style: The long run into the first bend in this race has resulted in the draw seemingly having had little impact on the results. Gates 1 to 9 have produced all ten most recent winners between them however, it should be noted that no winner has been drawn in double digits. The more interesting trend is how well forwardly placed horses have fared, with 7/10 winners since 2014, having been placed within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half mile. Vicar’s In Trouble (2014), Wells Bayou (2020), Hot Rod Charlie (2021) and Epicenter (2023), all went gate to wire and even though 2017 winner, Girvin, was 6 1/2 lengths off of the pace setter, he was still only positioned in 4th, due to a tear away, 100/1 shot setting the fractions. In fact, 8/10 renewals of the Louisiana Derby since 2014 have been won by either the favorite, or the pace setter. This trend could be seen as a significant positive for Track Phantom, who looks a likely favorite, pace setter, or both.
Preparations: When looking at the preparations for horses running in the Louisiana Derby, the G2 Risen Star Stakes has been by far the most fruitful prep race, with 6/10 winners since 2014 having run in that race beforehand. What’s more, all six of them had also finished in the first three in the Risen Star, which is a positive sign for Track Phantom and Catching Freedom this year, as they finished 2nd and 3rd respectively in this year’s renewal. Out of the thirty horses to have hit the board in the Louisiana Derby since 2014, seventeen of them had prepped in the Risen Star Stakes. On the other hand, since 2014, fifteen horses have prepped for the Louisiana Derby at Oaklawn Park but surprisingly, only Wells Bayou in 2020 was able to win at the Fair Grounds, having finished 2nd in the Southwest Stakes most recently. It’s also worth noting that all ten winners since 2014 had finished in the first three in their prior start, so looking for in form horses is key.
Horse profile: The Louisiana Derby has also tended to be won by more unexposed types, highlighted by the fact that 7/10 winners had made no more than four prior starts and only 5/10 winners had won a stakes race before. This was the case with last year’s winner Kingsbarns, who was making only his third career start, having won an allowance race at Tampa last time out. When looking at the general standard that is required to win the Louisiana Derby, it’s worth noting that 8/10 winners since 2014 had already recorded a 100+ Equibase Speed Figure, before they ran in this race. Furthermore, all ten winners had run a speed figure of at least 95. In Saturday’s race, only Agate Road, Common Defense and Track Phantom have run a 100+ ESF before, which is a positive for them. Meanwhile, Triple Espresso, Antiquarian, Awesome Ruta, Next Level and Tuscan Gold have all failed to record an ESF of 95+, which is a negative for these runners.
Trainers: Brad Cox, Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher have won 5/10 runnings of this race between them since 2014, however, this statistic has to be put into perspective, because they have also started a combined 33 horses. Their records are as follows:
- Pletcher: 2-4-1 from 12 starters (17% win, 58% show).
- Asmussen: 2-2-1 from 13 starters (15% win, 38% show).
- Cox: 1-1-1 from 8 starters (13% win, 38% show).
Pletcher’s record is clearly the strongest of the three here. It’s also worth highlighting that both times that Brad Cox has sent out the favorite for this race, he has failed to hit the board. (Mo Tom finished 4th in 2016 and Mandaloun finished 6th in 2021). Trainer Kenny McPeek, has also failed to hit the board with all five of his starters since 2014.
Jockeys In this year’s race, four jockeys have already tasted Louisiana Derby success: John Velasquez, Flavian Prat, Brian Hernandez Jr and Joel Rosario. Prat managed to win on his one and only ride in the race, with Kingsbarns last year. Rosario, also has a particularly strong record of 2-1-0 from four rides, having won on both Hot Rod Charlie (2021) and Epicenter (2022), as well as finishing 2nd at odds of 8/1 last year, on Disarm.
Takeaways
- Focus on the top of the betting market.
- Don’t worry too much about the draw, but rather look for horses who will be forwardly placed.
- Pay specific attention to horses coming back from the Risen Star Stakes and be cautious of horses coming in from Oaklawn.
- Be wary of betting horses who failed to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd, last time out.
- Don’t be worried about a lack of experience or prior stakes success.
- Look closely at horses with a previous 100+ ESF and be skeptical of horse yet to achieve an ESF of 95+.
- Respect Pletcher’s runners and Rosario’s mount.
Verdict: #5 Catching Freedom
When considering the fact that six of the last ten winners of this race had finished in the top three in the Risen Star on their previous start, one instantly looks towards Track Phantom and Catching Freedom. Both achieved ESF’s of over 95 in that race and both will be towards the top of the betting market, so they fit those trends as well. Although Track Phantom is almost certainly going to be forwardly placed, he’s relatively exposed, having already had six career starts and seven of the last ten winners had made no more than four prior starts. With only four career starts under his belt, Catching Freedom has more potential to improve again and he looks as if he will relish the added distance on Saturday. His trainer and jockey have both previously won this race and he’s from a talented family, as a half-brother to Bishops Bay, who was only beaten a neck by Belmont and Travers Stakes winner, Arcangelo, last year. I don’t think that he will be positioned too far off of the lead and to me, he looks a solid option.
