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Fierceness – Sierra Leone – Forever Young – Catching Freedom – Just a Touch – Resilience – Stronghold
By: Mike Pribozie
How He Got Here
Just Steel started his career back in June of ‘23 finishing 5th on debut at Ellis Park. He was then 2nd in a MSW at Saratoga. He has been racing consistently ever since with 11 starts. The maiden breaker came three weeks later over a solid field that included Locked, who went on to Stakes success at two. In typical DWL fashion he tried the G1 Hopeful and G1 Breeders Futurity. Just Steel was involved in contested paces in both and ultimately tired. Undeterred, he was entered in an allowance race and tried an off the pace approach at 7F while favored. After his third place finish he didn’t get much respect in the Listed Ed Brown Stakes at Churchill but produced an 88 BSF to win at 12.5-1.
The start of the Triple Crown trail began at Oaklawn on January 1st in the Smarty Jones and he danced every Oaklawn dance. After a second there to Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom, he was an against-the-track second in the Grade 3 Southwest on February 3rd. A wide trip in the Rebel from the eleven post led to a 7th place finish. He did take action in that spot however as the second choice at 4.7-1. New pilot Keith Asmussen had Just Steel wide again in the G2 Arkansas Derby but he finished second at 32-1 to well fancied Muth. In a recent interview, Lukas said Just Steel stumbled moving into the stretch and could have been closer at the finish. Just Steel has been wide all winter on an Oaklawn surface that has favored horses closer to the rail. He has earned 65 points and has the old school foundation from his old school trainer that has proven successful in the past.
How He Fits Here
Just Steel is a throwback horse that seems to be thriving on racing. His 11 starts are most of any that will be in the gate May 4th. His early 88 Beyer in his second start showed precocity, and the nose win after a duel showed toughness and a willingness to fight to win. His top Beyer of 95 puts him in the mix with the rest of the field except Fierceness. Just Steel’s Thoro-graph sheets tell an interesting story as well. He has plenty of races to set a pattern. After a 26 to start his career he improved quickly to a 9 ½ then a 7 ¾ in maiden races at the Spa. Regression in his G1 Stakes tries to 14 and 15 did not deter his trainer to move forward in the fall at Churchill. A sloppy track 9 ½ led to a stellar 2 ½ in the Ed Brown. After that sharp race he regressed again to an 8 but was able to rebound with a 2 ½ in the Southwest, getting back to his two year old top. Another regression followed with a 7 in the Rebel with that wide trip. The Arkansas Derby was his best yet with a 1. He is capable of fast races but also capable of regression. Will he need to improve to win? Absolutely but so does the rest of the field. His wide trips and toughness give him an edge over many that he lines up against. He is battle tested and has faced adversity.
Connections and Pedigree
Just Steel is in the excellent hands of legendary 88 year old trainer D Wayne Lukas. Lukas needs no introduction in the Derby with his four prior wins (1988, 1995, 1996, 1999). He’s also won the Preakness six times and the Belmont four times. His last Derby winner was a late blooming three year old named Charismatic (31-1) who was in a claiming race in November of his two year old year. Lukas is no stranger to winning big races with long shots and horses that take time to develop.
Keith Asmussen will have his first derby mount this year. The Son of all time winningest trainer Steve Asmussen had his first win as a rider July 26, 2020 in his 19th career mount. He progressed quickly and had his first graded win this year with Lukas trained Lemon Muffin. He’s currently 2nd in the Oaklawn standings with 51 wins in 320 starts (16%).
Just Steel was bred by Summerhill Farm who bred 2016 Derby winner Nyquist. He is a son of undefeated Triple Crown winner Justify. Justify currently has three crops of racing age and has already produced a champion and 14 Graded Black Type winners. His daughter Just FYI won the BC Juvenile Fillies last fall and was named Champion. He was ranked #1 second crop sire last year ( 71 wins) and is currently #1 third crop sire this year with 28 wins. Just Steel’s is out of an Australian G1 winning mare (17 year old) Irish Lights (Aus). She won three races in 14 lifetime starts including a month stretch in 2009 that produced three straight wins in a Handicap, a Grade 3 then the Grade 1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield. She was out of Australian Champion Sprinter Fastnet Rock who is a champion sire that’s produced solid distance horses throughout his time at stud. Current statistics of his progeny show 222 wins over 10 furlongs. Amongst his Graded winners over distance are Mosheen and Fascinating Rock. While Just Steel’s pedigree is tilted to the sprint and turf side, he has enough in the bloodline to suggest 10 furlongs isn’t out of his reach.
Overall Chance
Just Steel looks to have a “puncher’s chance” in the Derby this year related to many factors. The favorites are flawed and have shown an affinity to need a trip and setup to be effective. While Just Steel isn’t flashy, he is honest and has overcome some adversity so far this spring. Wide trips and biased tracks aside, he still may have not produced his top effort. His last race produced his best figure yet, and could be thriving at the right time. His seasoning and toughness will serve him well in a twenty horse race. His best trip is stalking behind what should be a solid pace, he just needs to make the Derby move to try to be in front at the eighth pole. He is in the right hands for Derby glory and the Derby Gods could be looking to give DWL one more Crown. The Sheets say a regression is likely again off a top effort, but if he can produce a similar one to last he fits. Just Steel will get plenty of screen time the week of the Derby related to his connections and strong storyline. That could bring his price down in the win pool, and he may be best served being used prominently on the vertical exotics. If one believes a regression is likely, do not fear. DWL probably already has his flight booked to Baltimore.
