The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 makes its week 3 debut on Thursday with the bet producing very healthy returns so far this meet. The $3 minimum and full fields are certainly doing the job as the average payoff has been over $1,400 with 4/6 offerings paying four figures.
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Selections
- Leg 1 (R5): 7-9-11-12
- Leg 2 (R7): 14-8-1-2
- Leg 3 (R9): 2-6-8-3
Leg 1 (3:08pm): Keeneland Race 5 – Maiden Special Wt 100k Purse
The opening leg of this sequence is one where I’m willing to focus a large amount of the play through one horse. Though she has yet to race on the grass, I believe Figgy (#7) is a likely winner in this spot at what should be a decent number given the depth of contention in this full field. She actually crossed the wire first in a route event over Turfway’s synthetic surface but was disqualified and placed 12th. On pedigree, the surface change should be a positive as this is a Augustin Stable female family and the dam has already produced Mud Pie and Boxwood who were both successful on the lawn. After her, this race is wide open, but my main other opinion is that I’m against the morning line favorite Centuria (Ire) (#4). This filly is likely to take money as a result of her foreign form, but that came against weak company at Dundalk. Kimber Spice (#2) and Beyond Lucky (#3) both have a chance to move forward in their second start, but the former is by a negative turf sire in Gun Runner and the latter might be an underlay due to the presence of Irad Ortiz Jr. Waves of Mischief (#1) and Deep Satin (#9) are both well-bred first time starters from barns that I respect in Brendan Walsh and Cherie DeVaux. I’d also want to throw in Don’t Look Back (#11) and Always Wanting (#12) as second-time starters who can improve getting distance and turf for the first time.
Leg 2 (4:12pm): Keeneland Race 7 – AllowanceN3X 130k Purse
Morning line favorite Bling (#12) is a scratch after running five days ago in the Giant’s Causeway. This leaves Wesley Ward with a strong hand in this race with two runners that fit one of the most potent Keeneland trainer stats. Over the last five years, Ward is 15/42 (36%, $3.25 ROI) with horses coming off a layoff of more than 4 months in a Keeneland turf sprint. Daring Do (#8) and Shootoutthelights (#14) both meet that criteria, as the latter draws in from the also eligible list. She also happens to be the one of his entrants I prefer of the two as she has the speed to clear this field. Marissa’s Lady (#1) has a nice run over this course and distance from last fall and has the tactical speed to stay within range of the leader. The deepest of backups would include Benedict Canyon (#2), L J’s Emma (#3), and You’re So Sillea (#9). Benedict Canyon might find the 5.5f a bit sharp, but I find it interesting that D’Amato ships her in from CA. L J’s Emma sprung an upset in the Galway Stakes at Saratoga last summer, but that race seems to live in isolation. Finally, if You’re So Sillea can translate her dirt form to turf, she’s extremely dangerous, but if that was true I wonder why it’s taken until her 16th start to get to the lawn.
Leg 3 (5:16pm): Keeneland Race 9 – Maiden Special Wt 100k Purse
The sequence closes out with another turf sprint with this one for maidens. I landed on another Rusty Arnold runner in this spot with Shore War (#2) gaining honors as the top pick. This Omaha Beach filly has only run once in a turf sprint coming home third over this course and distance last fall. I won’t hold the dismal performance off the layoff against her as that was a route on Gulfstream’s synthetic surface and think she has the speed to get to the front here in a affair that seems to lack a true front-runner. She also has an aggressive rider on her back with Luis Saez taking the mount. The horse to beat is probably Mo Lantern (#6) as this filly returns from the layoff and gets back to her preferred surface. Vicki Rose (#8) is intriguing getting to turf for the first time as she looks to break her maiden in career start number 8. Jimmy Creed is a positive influence as a sire for turf sprints and the dam produced a colt named Zhelkanat that racked up plenty of success in Saudi Arabia. Bougie Not Basic (#1) and Riley Jean (#7) are two logical contenders that I don’t want to focus my ply on, but are willing to run a couple wagers through linking up my strongest opinions in the other two legs. The former is a firster for Mike Maker which isn’t a super positive move for the barn, but she’s a full sister to the talented graded stakes winner Red Carpet Ready. Riley Jean has a couple turf sprints from Fair Grounds this winter that make her competitive but I view others as having more upside.
