Hopefully birthday luck will be on our side today as I celebrate another year around the sun on this 19th of April. Let’s take a crack at taking down the lucrative Turf Pick 3 which paid over $53,000 yesterday after $100+ and $50+ winners in the final two legs.
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Selections
- Leg 1 (R5): 1-7-5-10
- Leg 2 (R7): 2-7-13-11
- Leg 3 (R10): 11-10-7-6
Leg 1 (3:08pm): Keeneland Race 5 – AllowanceN2X 120k Purse
The sequence kicks off with a very competitive N2X allowance for turf milers. While the second division of this condition (9th race) features the most talented horse, this affair is deeper in terms of contenders. Greek Order (#10) is the likely favorite in this spot as he makes his stateside debut for Bill Mott. He has solid but not spectacular credentials with two handicap wins to his credit, but I worry he’ll be an underlay as Juddmonte and Irad Ortiz horses often are. It will also be interesting to see if he can prove best over this flat mile as his most recent races were over 9-10f overseas. Dude N Colorado (#9) is the other logical one as he showed ability as an early season three-year-old at Gulfstream. However, he hasn’t quite been able to replicate that form outside of South Florida. Judge Davis (#5) tries a turf route for the first time in start number 17 which gives me mixed signals. On one hand, he’s certainly bred to handle it being by Distorted Humor, but the McGaughey barn usually spots their charges where they excel earlier in their career. I’m interested in what we get from Evan Harlan (#7). I’ve always had high hopes for this now 5YO gelding as his dam is a half-sister the MG1W Miss Temple City. The Graham Motion barn seemed to share those sentiments throwing him in the G1-Hollywood Derby off just a maiden win back in 2022. He finally got back to the winner’s circle two back at the Fair Grounds and I wonder if new trainer Brendan Walsh will be able to maximize this horse’s ability. However my top pick is another colt who has spent plenty of time on the left coast in Escape Artist (#1). Big things were planned for this colt last summer after a couple open lengths wins. He was bet to 3-1 in the competitive Del Mar opening day feature before losing his best chance at the break. I’m willing to draw a line through the Kentucky Downs effort that preceded a prolonged break and hope McCarthy has him ready to fire fresh.
Leg 2 (4:12pm): Keeneland Race 7 – AllowanceN3X 130k Purse
The middle leg of this sequence gave me a headache and that was not made easier by the addition of two runners from the also eligible list. I’ll use both of them in some capacity but I’m more interested in Let My People Go (#13) as he is second off the layoff for the Oliver barn after being overmatched in the G2-Shakertown just two weeks ago. Just Might (#11) just might be fast enough to take this field gate-to-wire, but the 8YO has failed a couple of times at short odds so far in 2024. I’ll use him because of his pace advantage but want to run most of my play through Winfromwithin (#2) and Axthelm (#7). The former gets the nod as the top pick as I believe he’ll be overlooked coming out of route races. However, horse showed some ability sprinting as a juvenile and finally gets a chance to turn back in distance. He was known to show speed in those route races and without too many front-runners signed on in here, I don’t think he’ll be outfooted early. Gerardo Corrales guided home a big price in a turf sprint yesterday. Axthelm is probably the horse to beat and while most of his best work has been done in Saffie Joseph’s personal playground of South Florida, he has translated that to a couple of Kentucky tracks over the course of his career. Saffie also took down a turf race last Sunday with a big price.
Leg 3 (5:48pm): Keeneland Race 10 – AllowanceN2X 120k Purse
It’s not often that you see a stakes winner show up in a N2X allowance race, but that’s the case in the Friday finale for Northern Invader (#11). This colt is squarely the horse to beat in this spot and not one I’m willing to put too many combinations in against. He burst onto the scene last summer with an eye-catching 8L maiden win at Belmont Park and was bet down to 2-1 in a G2 for his next start. While he was unable to win the Secretariat against a solid bunch, he did notch a stakes win in the Gio Ponti at Aqueduct last fall. He’s failed at odds-on in his three subsequent starts though one of those was an off-the-turf affair and the other two came over a Fair Grounds strip he might not have preferred. I like the change of scenery and think he gets back on track ahead of a nice ’24 summer campaign. I’d want to look outside the main contenders for some backup uses and landed on Scoobie Quando (#7) and Noises Off (#10) to fit that bill. The former exits a nice win over the Turfway synthetic, but has a huge turf pedigree and can take another step forward on the Keeneland sod for the first time. Noises Off is trained by Paulo Lobo who is always dangerous at Keeneland. He’s been impressive winning two of his last three and I like that Joel Rosario takes the call. Others in with a chance include Belouni (#1), Wonderful Justice (#3), and Loyal Company (#6), but this feels like a race where we can hone in on the favorite.
