Another fun Saturday card is on tap at Keeneland. Let’s take a look at the Turf Pick 3!
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Selections
- Leg 1 (R6): 11-12-7-1
- Leg 2 (R8): 4-11-10-3
- Leg 3 (R10): 2-5-1-6
Leg 1 (3:40pm): Keeneland Race 6 – AllowanceN2X 120k Purse
A good amount of the public’s money in the opening leg of this sequence will go through Sacred Wish (#10), but I’m not so sure she possesses any real edge over this field. She’s run well over the grass after switching to it last fall, but those stakes fields in New York weren’t the toughest and now must prove it off the layoff. If I’m taking a returnee, I’d much rather have Pleasant Passage (#11) who goes out for top connections in Shug McGaughey and Irad Ortiz Jr. This filly has already shown an affinity for the Keeneland sod evidenced by the fact she finished second in the BC Juvenile FIllies Turf over this course and distance back in 2022. Her 2023 campaign never really got off the ground, but she had trouble in each of her first three starts of last year and I’m willing to forgive the no show in her last start as it preceded a long layoff. She’s a versatile sort who can adapt to any pace situation and I like her to take this race en route to a big 2024 campaign. Olivia Maralda (Ire) (#12) is the big wildcard in this spot as this filly kept some solid company overseas when in the Roger Varian barn last year. The Walden barn isn’t one you’d think of for success with foreign shippers, but that may ensure a fair price. American Retro (#7) has the look of an improving sort for a patient barn in Ian Wilkes. It’s rare to see his horses run well at Gulfstream so I could see another step forward here. The primary backup for me is Freydis the Red (#1) who has kept solid company, but I wonder if the distance is a bit sharp.
Leg 2 (4:12pm): Keeneland Race 8 – G2-Elkhorn Stakes 350k
The co-feature on the Keeneland card is likely to include a heavy favorite in the form of Bold Act (#4) and he’s one that I’m not willing to spend too much trying to beat. He’s came over last fall and notched a stakes win against older rivals over this course and distance and it’s likely history will repeat itself as he comes in off a solid win at Meydan. I actually think his main competition is his stablemate Silver Knott (#11) as I find it curious that he shows up in this spot as well. I was never of the opinion that more distance was better for this gelding, but I trust Charlie Appleby to know his stock. He also has the opportunity to get to the front which could be advantageous if Prat can back down the pace. Missed the Cut (#10) has been beating up on weak fields out in California marathon turf stakes races, but he’s done so the right way winning each of his last two by daylight.
Leg 3 (5:48pm): Keeneland Race 10 – AllowanceN1X 110k Purse
I think Proud Mary (#2) is the horse to beat and a likely winnner to close out the Saturday card. I feel as if this is a weaker than usual field for a N1X turf sprint and I think reproducing her 4th place effort here last fall might be enough to get the money. She’s probably also supposed to take a step forward as a newly turned 4YO. The other one I want to use prominently is Definite Diva (#5). Irad Ortiz is likely to give this one a good ride and she exits a facile win at Gulfstream Park. While that race came in front-running fashion at a flat 5f, she doesn’t strike me as a need-the-lead type and should handle the extra half-furlong. Golden Dagger (#1) is undefeated, but those wins came against maiden claiming and starter allowance company so he’ll get a class test off the layoff here.
