We close out the first week of the Keeneland meet with another competitive rendition of the Turf Pick 3. The card also features the G2-Beaumont so be sure to also check out the rest of the great content the In the Money Media team has up on the blog for thoughts on the Keeneland Sunday feature. Good Luck!
Selections
- Leg 1 (R5): 5-8-11-4
- Leg 2 (R7): 6-4-12-3
- Leg 3 (R9): 11-2-8-7
Leg 1 (3:08pm): Keeneland Race 5 – AllowanceN2X 120k Purse
The opening leg of this sequence gave me a bit of a headache as often is the case with full fields of turf sprinters. Run for the Hills (#4) and Howboutdemapples (#11) are clearly the horses to beat, but I’m not sure I would want to lean on either at their projected short prices. The former is a consistent sort who usually shows up with a good effort, but routinely finds one or two better. The latter has never gone this 5.5f trip, but it’s reasonable to think she’ll appreciate it as she’s run well at a variety of distances both shorter and longer. She might be an underlay though with Irad aboard and I’m never jumping at the chance to bet a Saffie Joseph runner outside of Florida. The problem is finding a suitable alternative. The logical one is Hurricane Debbie (#8) and she’s appealing because this is a rare case of where you can get Wesley Ward in a turf sprint at a decent number. She ran well to win last out coming from off the pace, but this seems like a tougher group. I’ll use her prominently out of respect for the conditioner, but my top pick is Hideki (#5). I thought this mare ran extremely well over this course and distance last spring in a race with a race flow similar to the one projected for today. Some of the fillies she was defeated by last year (Playlist, L J’s Emma, B D Valeski) would be heavy favorites in this spot. Machado has come on the scene as a very capable jock and if he can get decent early position, I believe Hideki has a chance to upset the apple cart.
Leg 2 (4:12pm): Keeneland Race 7 – Palisades Stakes 250k Purse
This came up a fun rendition of the Palisades highlighted by the fact Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint favorite No Nay Mets (Ire) (#4) gets his 2024 campaign underway here. While he didn’t oblige as the public choice at Santa Anita, he put together a very impressive 2023 campaign that included three stakes wins at three different tracks. He’s a speedball though and there’s other early zip in the field and it’s worth noting his one defeat came when he didn’t get to the front. One of the prime possessors of that aforementioned early speed is the undefeated Refuel (#12). This colt has wins over both turf and synthetic, but gets the acid test today and will have to ration his speed an extra half furlong. I’m taking a swing with Fandom (GB) (#6) as Wesley Ward has enormous numbers with turf sprinters off layoffs at Keeneland and this one figures to be a square price. He dominated a MSW field over this course and distance last spring, but there might not have been too much quality in behind him. He was never able to get back to the races after a failed attempt across the pond at Royal Ascot, but hopefully the time off has allowed him to develop and become a fully-formed turf sprinter. Others to consider include Silent Heart (#5) who gets back to sprint distances and attracts Johnny V, but the longshot I’d throw in is Mansa Musa (Ire) (#3). Team Valor just sprung a major upset in the Dubai Turf last weekend and will be looking to do so here as this foreign raider goes out first time for Bill Mott. He showed some promise as a juvenile being stakes placed in Ireland on multiple occasions and by all accounts will be suited to the 5.5f trip.
Leg 3 (5:16pm): Keeneland Race 9 – AllowanceN1X 110k Purse
The Sunday finale could change drastically if there are a few scratches as all four of the also-eligibles are in with a chance. For simplicity sake, I’ll handicap it as if the field holds together which will make Tituba (#2) and Cadencia (#8) the likely favorites. Similar to the first leg of this sequence, I understand the appeal of these two with Tituba getting back to turf after a solid run at Turfway and Cadencia getting to stretch back out off the prep race at Tampa, but neither are ones I would want to have a high percentage of my play going through. I actually love a runner in this spot and that’s Condone (#11). This filly goes out for connections that point to the Keeneland meet in Oliver/G. Watts Humphrey and she got a perfect prep for this start last time at Turfway. Her second place effort rallying over a ten furlong trip on a course favoring front runners sets her up well to turn back in distance to the flat mile this afternoon. While she’s yet to hit the board in her two turf starts, I think there’s more to that than meets the eye. She actually outran her odds in her turf debut at Kentucky Downs to run 4th of 11 at 41-1 and I can excuse her 9th place finish over this course last fall as she wasted a ton of energy while rank heading into the clubhouse turn as she was forced to expend herself getting over from the wide draw. Unlike many others in this field, she has upside as a lightly raced 4YO and the pedigree suggests she could as she’s by top sire Justify out of the dam who produced Be You, a runner on the Derby trail. I’m more than happy to have a bunch of my play run through her with the favorites and a few others as distant backups.
