Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/21/24 – By Eric Solomon

While temperatures this afternoon aren’t expected to get out of the 50’s, the forecast calls for a sunny and clear afternoon. The four races that are carded for the turf should go off without a hitch. While there are no stakes carded for this afternoon, there are some solid allowance races both on dirt and turf that certainly could have stakes implications down the road. First post for the final Sunday of the Spring Meet is 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day begins with a $10K starter allowance race for four year olds and up that have starter at least one time for a $10K tag or less since the start of 2023. I’m against the morning line favorite, Sittin On Go (#6) in this spot. He has two big speed figures in his last four races, however those came in 10 and 11 furlong races. I think the playing field is much more level for him at 1 1/16 miles, and I think there are others that are better suited to beat him. I don’t often endorse Penn National shippers to Keeneland, but I think Crazy Legs Hirsch (#3) has a decent chance in this race. He’s a generally consistent horse that throws in some inexplicable clunkers from time to time. That was the case last out when he was claimed for $25K. Trainer Panagiotis Synnefias has good numbers with runners first off the claim. With Penn National dark for the month of April, shipping somewhere seems like a logical move for his next start. He has 14 wins in 44 career starts and is 3 of 4 at this distance. I liked the decision to scratch him out of a much tougher spot yesterday in favor of this race. Sense You Left (#1) feels like the right alternative in this spot. He has the rail and the best speed in the field. P H Factor (#7) could push him a little too hard from his outside draw, but he’s got the edge breaking from the rail. He has 6 wins from 12 starts at this distance and 4 wins in his last 9 starts. He’s going to be tough to catch, especially if they don’t pressure him early. 

Race 2:

A full field of maiden two year olds will sprint 4 ½ furlongs on the Headley Course. John Oxley has his fingerprints all over the favorite, Dreamaway (#2). He owned and bred the sire and the dam, and now he turns this filly, who is taking on the boys today, over to Wesley Ward. I’d have to think with her turf pedigree, this one of the horses in his stable that he has earmarked to make the trip overseas in June to Royal Ascot. The dam did all of her work in route races in her career, most of them coming on the turf. Her sire, Flameaway, was a winner on debut at this distance at Woodbine. Her dirt works look like she’ll have no problem handling the local course. She’ll likely be a short price, but she’s the one to beat. The backup for me will be Baytown Sundance (#11). His sire, Daredevil, was a two year old debut winner, and he gets 11% winners from his first time starters in dirt sprints. His dam was a two year old debut winner and one of her foals, Scabbard, won by five lengths on debut at Churchill as a two year old. His works are competitive for a barn that did get their first two year old debut winner this week in over two years. 

Race 3:

This one mile maiden allowance race for fillies and mares drew a ton of action at the entry box. The racing office split this race into two heats, with both divisions drawing 16 runners. The second division is the 9th and final race of the afternoon. We saw Timeless Elegance (#3) debut last spring on synthetic and then run a big race in her second career start on the turf. She was away from May until the end of February when she returned in a synthetic race at Turfway, with the likely intention of using that race to set her up for a race like this. Jose Ortiz is back in Lexington today after riding in Hot Springs, Arkansas yesterday. He’ll get the assignment for Jonathan Thomas. Speak Up (#7) is likely going to be near the front of the pack in this race. She didn’t show much on the dirt in her first four starts at Gulfstream, however, she has been a much better horse since moving to the grass. Horses that last raced on the turf at Gulfstream have done very well in grass races at this meet. Cherie DeVaux has had an excellent meet and she has a Wootton Bassett firster, Pisciotta (#10). She sent out Deep Satin earlier this week, who broke near the outside and was moving well late to be second debut. The works are solid but Jose Ortiz, who rides a lot of DeVaux’s horse, taking the ride on Timeless Elegance, tells me that this one might need a race. Joel Rosario, who was also at Oaklawn yesterday, is back to ride today. Star Anise (#1) is another runner worth thinking about in this race. She was slow to go in her debut on turf, but she closed with interest. She ran poorly two back in an off the turf race, but she rebounded nicely in her last when sprinting on the turf. She was more forward in that race, so she could possibly even make the lead in this field with her rail draw. She has the look of a live longshot.  

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this $50K maiden claiming race. Colette’s Joy (#4) feels like she could be tough in this race, making her second start off the layoff for Phil D’Amato. She was competitive in her two turn maiden special weight races on the dirt at Del Mar and Keeneland last year. She ran twice at that level at Turfway on the synthetic and failed to run her best race. She has three works over this course and I’m expecting her to get back on track while dropping in for a tag for the first time. Elliptic (#11) makes her third career start and her first at two turns for Carlo Vacccarezza. Her debut in an off the turf sprint wasn’t very good. She came to Turfway and improved a bit when going six furlongs. She’s sired by Arrogate out of a Big Brown mare, so I’m thinking that two turns will be where she’ll do her best work. The post is less than ideal, but blinkers are going on after a snappy five furlong drill, so Irad Ortiz might try to push the pedal down and go to the front from the start. Song Bridge (#5) also looks like a horse that will be better suited for a two turn race on the dirt. She ran well in her only dirt route, three starts ago at the Fair Grounds. That came in 2023 as a three year old though. Her first two starts this year weren’t great. However, one was in a sprint and the other was a turf route. Dallas Stewart adds blinkers and gave her a little extra time going into this race. He also seems to find a way to light up the toteboard once or twice at Keeneland and he hasn’t done it yet at this meet. 

Race 5:

This is one of the more important races for horizontal wagers as it ends the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 and it starts the All-Turf Pick-3 and the Late Pick-5. Three year olds and up will sprint 5 ½ furlongs in this N1X allowance race. Salt Spray (#12) is the tepid morning line favorite, but I’m not certain he’s going to be running in this race as he recorded a four furlong workout on Thursday. Ward trains him as well as my top pick, Jefe de Obra (#7), who was nailed on the wire in a race at this distance and condition last fall. He’s making his first start since an off the board finish on the dirt at Del Mar in December. I like him getting back on the turf and Ward was hot yesterday, winning twice. Ransomware (#2) has been on the sidelines since June at Santa Anita. This will be the shortest distance that he’s competed at, although his turf sprints in California were solid. He ran a big race at long odds in the Desert Code Stakes last summer, which was contested at 6 ½ furlongs on the downhill course at Santa Anita. While that form doesn’t always transfer to more conventional 5 or 5 ½ furlong turf races, there are positives to take away. That race came off a layoff, not unlike this race. His two sprint races were more competitive than his three starts at two turns. Flavien Prat has struggled at this meet this year, but he’s capable of busting out of a slump in a hurry. Horses coming from far back in these 5 ½ furlong sprint races have struggled to get the right trip at this meet. However, the ability for Demolition Duke (#3) is there. Brendan Walsh has very good numbers with horses in their second start off the layoff. He was rolling late down the longer stretch at the Fair Grounds. He’s going to need the right trip and ride from Gaffalione to get it done here. 

Race 6:

Three year olds will travel 7 furlongs and 184 feet on the Beard Course in this maiden special weight contest that will kick off the Late Pick-4. I think they’re going to have a hard time beating Dragoon Guard (#7) in his first race off the sidelines for Juddmonte and Brad Cox. Much like with the John Oxley horse in the 2nd horse, Juddmonte owned and bred the sire, Arrogate, and the dam, Filimbi. While this Grade 2 winning mare hasn’t really turned into the broodmare Juddmonte had hoped she would, she has still produced some useful runners. While all of her work came on the turf, her dam was the winner of the 2001 Kentucky Oaks and Alabama Stakes, Flute. I think this colt will be better at two turns, but this feels like the right kind of spot to restart his career. Temecula (#4) had the misfortune of running into Mr Skylight in his debut at Gulfstream last month. That one came back to clear the N1X allowance condition on this oval yesterday. He’s the first foal to run from the Tapit mare, Tap Diva, whose only career win came at two turns on the turf. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one on the grass sooner than later, but I do think he can compete with these on the dirt. Term (#3) debuted in a fast maiden special weight race on the Jeff Ruby Steaks undercard at Turfway last month. He was a bit slow from the gate, but was moving well in the late stages of that race to get into 6th. I think the added distance should serve him well in this spot. His full brother won a first level allowance race at this distance on this course two years ago. Tom Drury, who had his first winner of the meet yesterday, trained that one as well. 

Race 7:

Ten fillies and mares are set to go 1 ⅛ miles on the turf in this N3X allowance race which serves as the featured race of the afternoon. Immensitude (#4) is the heavy favorite, shipping over from Europe to join Bill Mott’s barn. She cleared the N2X condition with a Group 3 victory at Chantilly at this distance. While I expect her to be tough, some the foreign shippers have been a mixed bag at this meet, I’m going to use her, but I’m going to make Girl Named Charlie (#8) the top pick. She’s an improving four year old filly that has put together three sharp efforts since joining Lindsay Schultz’s barn this year. She was competitive in stakes races on good and soft turf at the Fair Grounds the past few months. There’s not a lot of speed signed on for this race and I think she might be able to get the jump on the favorite. I see these two as the most likely winners of this race. 

Race 8:

Four year olds and up are sprinting six furlongs in this optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race. This is one of the trickiest races on the card because this field is loaded with horses that seemingly need the lead to win. There are horses coming off big races that feel unlikely to be able to duplicate those performances. Ready to Pounce (#4) feels like the crazy kind of horse that could have an impact in this race. He’s a six year old that has one start and one win on this oval, which came three years ago in a fast off the turf maiden special weight race. All three of his career wins have been in come from behind fashion. He has the fastest late pace in this race when he’s right. He’s a six year old that has been overmatched in his last several starts. He is in third start off the layoff and his last race on turf is better than it looks on paper. Jose Ortiz, fresh off a successful business trip to Hot Springs, Arkansas, where he won the Oaklawn Handicap, takes the mount. I think he could be flying late in this one. I think Ludwig (#1) and Champlin (#9) are most likely to be on the lead after the first quarter mile. The current form for Champlin might give him the edge as he’s been able to pull away in the stretch in his first two starts. He’s unblemished, running twice and winning both open lengths in both starts at the Fair Grounds. This will be a definite class test for him, but I do like the loyalty from Greg Foley to keep Mitchell Murrill in the saddle. Ludwig put it all together at the Spa last summer, breaking his maiden and clearing the N1X allowance condition. The rail is not the best place for him to be when making his return to the races today. However, early speed has transformed his game, so I think Martin Garcia will be left with no other choice but to send him early. Having inside position when they turn for home might not be the worst thing in the world. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Powerful (#7) who is trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Joel Rosario. He’s run okay races at this level in New Orleans in his last two starts. I would have liked to have seen him closing more efficiently last out, but perhaps he’ll be more fit in his third start off the layoff. 

Race 9:

Unlike the first division of this one mile maiden allowance which is wide open, I think this race will have a very logical outcome. Chad Brown sends out Risk Threshold (#4) for the second time. His horses always tend to struggle on the turf at Gulfstream, so I can give her a pass for her third place finish there in her debut. She was slow to get away from the gate and she probably could have benefited from having the extra half furlong which she’s getting today.  I think with a better break, she’ll be in play much sooner this afternoon. Dona Witch (#10) makes her third career start for Ignacio Correas and her second off a layoff. She finished midpack when trying the turf for the first time at the Fair Grounds in her most recent effort. Correas trained her dam, Dona Bruja, who was a multiple graded stakes winner and she came within a head of winning the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes in 2018. I do think we’re going to see a better effort from her in this spot. She’s a logical horse to use underneath and possibly consider if the price stays at or goes above her 15-1 morning line. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 27/108 (25.0%), $198.14, $1.83 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.