There’s a 10 race Friday afternoon card at Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky. The weather continues to be beautiful for the 11th day of this fall meet and large, competitive fields continue to be the theme. As usual, first post is 1:00 PM (EDT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 5 | 4,5,8 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 16/10 | 3,10,15,16 | 5,13 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4,8 | 10 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 4 | 4,7 | DBL, PK3,
All-Turf PK3 (R4,R8, R10) |
||
| 5 | 8 | 8 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 6 | 4 | 4,8 | 10 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 7 | 8 | 8 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 8 | 6 | 3,4,6 | 1 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 9 | 10 | 5,10 | 8 | DBL | |
| 10 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
Race 1:
The day starts off with a beaten $62,500 claiming race going about seven furlongs on the Beard Course. All eight runners that entered this race qualified under the N3L condition. Great Richie M (#5) makes some sense in this race while dropping in class from a loaded N1X allowance race here on Opening Day. He ran into Montalcino, who is likely stakes bound after a monster effort where he dominated that race, winning by six lengths and stopping the clock in 1:21:2 for the seven furlongs. He was making his first start since May in that race, so he was up against it in that spot. He drops to a more appropriate level of competition for a barn that has good numbers with runners second off the layoff. He ran well on this course in the spring and I expect him to move forward in this race. I think 10-1 (ML) is solid value on this Fast Anna gelding. There are a few horses cutting back in distance for this race, and I think Black Powder (#4) looks like a horse that will appreciate the longer one turn sprint race offered here. He was claimed for $50K by Eddie Kenneally at Churchill in his last start. He has good numbers with runners going from routes to sprints and first off the claim. He doesn’t often claim horses and cut them back in distance, making this move only six times in the last five years, and only three times on the dirt. One of the three horses in this sample was a winner and another finished third. This is a horse that showed a lot of promise in his first two starts at Oaklawn in 2023, but he’s yet to live up to that potential. Perhaps the changes today will help get him over that hump. Own the Field (#8) turned in a dull effort with N1X company in his last start. However, prior to that, he had a nice string of four strong races in a row, coming in claiming and starter allowance company. He was a winner two back at Saratoga when going seven furlongs, so assuming he can rebound from his last effort, he should be tough today.
Race 2:
Last fall, we saw a brilliant performance from Thorpedo Anna when debuting in a restricted maiden special weight race like this at Keeneland. Introducing these races for horses that sold or RNA for $50K or less a few years ago has been a welcome addition to the condition books at some of the major North American tracks. Today’s race at that condition is for two year olds, sprinting six furlongs. There’s a ton of talent on the AE list in this race, including a debuting half brother to the aforementioned Thorpedo Anna, McAfee (#16), who will need some serious help to get into the body of this field. In addition to that one, Ennis Town (#15) would be making his second career start after a strong debut at Aqueduct. He’d be a must use should he draw in. I’d also consider upgrading Invisible (#13), who is scheduled to debut for Joe Orseno. He entered this one in a maiden special weight race on the turf tomorrow, but he typically bases his horses in Florida over the winter. This one has stopped in Kentucky with the intent of debuting here. I think dirt would be the preference for this one, but the fact that he entered him tomorrow tells me that he’s ready to run. Assuming that the top two runners don’t draw in, I’ll land on Lured Away (#10) for Ken McPeek, as the top pick in this race. McPeek has had some success in races like this. The works are decent and Enticed is off to a decent start as a sire, winning with 14% of his dirt sprinters. While none of the dam’s foals have won on debut, several have been competitive. War Mule (#3) is another firster that has a live look. His works have improved significantly since coming here from Remington for Bret Calhoun. While I typically prefer to play his runners in their second career starts, he has respectable numbers with debuting runners. Army Mule is a very good first out sire, winning with 20% of his debuting runners in dirt sprints. I’ve mentioned in the past that 10 of the 18 dirt sprint maiden special weight races last fall at Keeneland and I think, especially if Ennis Town doesn’t get in, the first timers might have the edge here. D Bigalow (#5) is the morning line favorite under the assumption Ennis Town is not running. He ran very well in the slop in his debut against an average field in open company. While this seems like class relief on paper, I’m not certain that it is. He also has a high Tomlinson figure, so that could offer an explanation for outrunning his odds on debut in the slop. It was a good enough effort to make sure that I’ll cover with him in this spot, but there is a part of me that is wondering if that was a bit of a fluky effort.
Race 3:
We’re back on the Beard Course for this $30K N2L claiming race. El Gunner (#4) is the play for me in this wide open race. He was claimed by Denis Roberson, who has decent numbers first off the claim in a limited sample. This Gun Runner gelding has never finished off the board in seven career starts, and he came desperately close to winning for the second time in Ohio two and three starts ago. He ran a credible race to be third at Churchill when making his first start outside of Ohio. The winner of that race ran a big race. He finished about 4 ½ lengths behind Alilnalot (#1) in that race. However, I don’t like the added distance for that runner, but I think it will suit El Gunner well. Merit (#8) had some solid races early in his career, including a sparkling 10 length maiden score at this distance at Gulfstream on debut. He hasn’t really shown that he can run back to those races though. He’s dropping in class again and facing the softest field that he’s seen to date. I like his one turn efforts better than his two turn races, so I do think he can rebound with this group. Bold d’Oro (#10) broke his maiden at Delaware two starts back and he wasn’t terrible in his first start with winners in N1X allowance company. He’s stretching out to a longer distance for the first time today for Greg Compton, so I don’t love him as the favorite. However, he has been consistent and this feels like the right level of competition for him on this circuit.
Race 4:
The $3 Keeneland All Turf Pick-3 starts a little earlier than usual today as fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles on the lawn in this $140K allowance race. Cupid’s Cash (#8) is the 7-5 morning line favorite. She’s coming off two strong races at Canterbury where she was a dominating winner on the turf, She’s 4-5 in her career on the grass and 8-15 overall. However, almost all of her racing has come in Minnesota. She ran here last fall and laid an egg in a N1X allowance race when sprinting on the turf. She is probably better at two turns, but I’m not convinced that she can replicate those races on this course. At short odds, I’m looking to beat her. Stir Crazy (#4) and Lute Warm (#7) are the two logical alternatives and I’ll give the slight edge to Stir Crazy. The odds disparity between the two runners on the morning line (9-2 compared to 9-5) is the main reason for me making Stir Crazy the top pick. She might be undervalued after struggling in the One Dreamer Stakes at Kentucky Downs last out. Sometimes horses don’t particularly like that course, but I think her effort was more of a function of a tough trip, especially considering how that course was playing at that point in the meet. She was also making her first start in three months that day, so perhaps that’s another excuse for coming up a bit short. Prior to that, she ran two solid races on the grass in stakes company in Indiana and in allowance company at Churchill. Mike Maker has done will this mare since claiming her and I’m expecting a better effort from her today. Lute Warm is the other runner that is very logical in this race. She likes to be more forwardly placed, which served well in her last start at Kentucky Downs. Brittany Russell has this four year old Midnight Lute filly in top form, coming here riding a four race winning streak. Florent Geroux rode her last time out and he gets the return call today.
Race 5:
The Early Pick-5 wraps up with a $10K starter allowance race for three year olds and up going 1 ⅛ miles. I’m going to wager that Polterer (#8) will be able to rebound in this spot. He has won 13 of 30 career starts and he’s shown the ability to run strong races after dull efforts in the past. He was very solid at Oaklawn this winter, running well in their series of starter allowance races, while also clearing the N1X condition in February. He struggled in the Trail’s End Starter Allowance at the end of the meet, however, that is a 14 furlong contest, so struggling there feels meaningless to me. He came back to run a pair of strong efforts at Delaware before running a subpar race last time out. He likes to be forwardly placed and I think he’s quicker from the gate than the other contenders in this race and speed has been a good weapon on this course. Truculent (#4) will be the backup play for me. Like Polterer, his last race was far from his best. However, he faced the stalwart, Next, in a 12 furlong graded stakes race on the dirt at Parx, so running poorly there does feel like a more valid excuse. He was excellent two starts back when crushing a nice field at Monmouth in an optional claiming/N2X allowance race. He’s not quite as consistent as some of the others and Polterer had his number twice at Oaklawn. However, I think his best is better than the best that either Hoodlum (#2) or Indian Gulch (#3) could run and both of them are shorter prices on the morning line.
Race 6:
We’ll move to the Late Pick-5, beginning with a beaten $20K claiming race, going 1 ⅛ miles on the main track once again. All 12 runners entered in this contest qualified under the N3L condition. Arrogate’s Spirit (#4) is an interesting runner in this race for Kent Sweezy. I don’t think we’re going to get the 15-1 morning line figure on this one, but I do think somewhere between 6-1 and 8-1 is fair value on this horse that will be going farther than he ever has before. Being sired by Arrogate suggests that the nine furlongs will be within his realm of capabilities. He ran four times this year at Santa Anita, running well in all three of the dirt races, winning twice and finishing a close second at this level. He struggled in his last two starts at Del Mar though. Both of those races were tough spots and the way that track was playing, horses were ridden aggressively in those one mile races. The fractional times of those races tell that tale and that’s not the kind of race he wants to run. I think the temp at this longer distance will be more moderate and I’m expecting a much better effort from him in this race, Curlin’s Incharge (#8) was claimed for the third straight time when just missing with $16K N3L claimers at Churchill last month. He’s a consistent runner that is one of only two runners in this field with a win at the distance. He’s been steadily improving and comes into this race in better current form than most of his rivals. J T’s Imagination (#10) cleared the N2L condition at Churchill three starts back. He finished off the board in his last two tries with starter allowance company, so the drop in class makes sense. Tyler Gaffalione is riding with supreme confidence right now and will be looking to make up for lost time after having to sit out Wednesday and Thursday due to HISA’s whip strike violations.
Race 7:
One of my stronger opinions on the afternoon comes in this maiden special weight for two year old fillies, going about seven furlongs. Amarth (#8) was well-backed in her debut at Churchill, going off as the post time favorite. She broke a bit awkwardly, then was bumped hard, forcing her to the back of the pack. She made a wide and prolonged run around the turn and was gaining some ground before another runner drifted in her path. She finished 7th that day, beaten six lengths. She was working very well on this course prior to her last start and she has had two solid maintenance drills since that effort. I think Saez will ride her a little more aggressively from the gate and I think we’re going to see a much better effort from her today. Nosleeptillbrooklyn (#2) is the morning line favorite, but she’s another horse that may have run an inflated Beyer Figure on a sloppy course at Churchill last out. Like the runner in the second race, she too has a high Tomlinson Figure. I’ll play against her in this spot and back up with Lyric Street (#3), making her first career start for Brendan Walsh. She’s first foal to race from the dam Mo Music, who was unraced. Her dam was the multiple graded stakes winning mare Harmony Lodge. She has several works to get her ready for her first start and while I don’t love first timers at this distance, I do think she could be a nice filly.
Race 8:
We had back to the turf for this N2X allowance race for fillies and mares, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs. The rails are out at 30 feet today, which will limit the number of starters at this distance to 10. This is a total spread race for me. I don’t love what I’m seeing from the longer priced runners in this race, but I have some questions about some of the shorter priced options as well. At the end of the day, I’ll side with Port Townsend (#6) who is making her first start since a 10th place finish in the Giant’s Causeway Stakes here in the spring. She was traveling well in that race behind the front-runner. She tipped out off the rail, but her hole closed up and she was forced to check sharply, plummeting to the back of the field. While she might not have won that race, that interference absolutely cost her a paycheck. She’s been sidelined since and she returns to the scene of that crime for Cherie DeVaux, who has been sharp with her runners at this meet. She has good numbers off the layoff and I’ll trust she’ll be prepared. Howboutdemapples (#4) may be the one that will be finishing the best in this race. She might have moved a bit early at Colonial two back and she ran a credible third at this level at Kentucky Downs when finishing third in her last two tries. She had a tough trip in a large field here in the spring, but I do like her current form. Just a Care (#3) is likely going to play catch me if you can in this race. She’s making her first start losing the rider in the Lightning City Stakes at Tampa last out. She came up just short here last year when making her first start off a layoff., There are some gaps in the running lines for this lightly raced four year old Australia filly. I think Port Townsend is content to track her, so I don’t anticipate too aggressive of an early pace battle. The wildcard in this race is definitely Golden Hostess (#1). She’s a Group 3 winner in South Africa making her first start in North America for Graham Motion. He has good numbers with first time imports and horses coming off the layoff. My gut tells me this race is a little too short for her, but it’s hard to count him out in races like this.
Race 9:
Two year old fillies will go 1 1/16 miles in this optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance contest. Bless the Broken (#10) debuted like a good thing at Evangeline for Ricky Courville. She’s a Cypress Creek Equine homebred that looks like she has a bright future so they moved her to Kentucky where William Walden takes over the training. She’s been working well at Turfway and was considered for a N2L allowance on the turf here last week. She scratched out of that race when she drew into the body of this field, which tells me they are more comfortable with her on the dirt. She’s bred to do better at longer distances, so I think the two turn trip will suit her fine. Five a Side (#5) comes here for John Servis after breaking her maiden in her third career start at Parx. Servis doesn’t ship to Kentucky unless he thinks he has a chance to win, so he clearly must like this Spun to Run filly. Her last two races came at seven furlongs and took a decent step forward in start number three. Irad Ortiz takes the mount here after winning with her on the PA Derby undercard. If the odds disparity between her and the top pick widens (6-1 compared to 7-2), I’d consider upgrading her. The morning line favorite is Paradise City (#8), coming to town from Gulfstream after a strong maiden score in a 6 ½ furlong sprint. Saffie Joseph’s horses haven’t been firing on all cylinders at this meet, so taking a short price on one of his runners might be less than ideal. Her Beyer Speed Figure for her debut was solid and that number would be tough for this field to beat, so I do see her as a viable backup.
Race 10:
We’ll wrap things up with a N1X allowance race for three year olds and up, going one mile on the turf. Legitimize (#8) looks like a talented gelding for Timothy Hamm. He just missed on debut at Tampa in the winter and was sidelined after that race. He came back and beat a solid maiden special weight field at Saratoga. Those races are pretty salty, so I think the step up in class to this level is minor. I don’t see this as the strongest field for this condition, so he feels like a tough customer. Will Take It (#3) is an interesting runner in this spot, coming back to the turf for the second time. He ran a good race at this level at Ellis in his turf debut two back. The Kentucky Downs meet came up pretty quickly after that race, so they opted to run him back on the dirt at Churchill last month. He finished 9th that day when facing a salty field for that condition. Christian Torres has had a tough meet, but he still is a very talented rider. I think there’s more upside with him in this race than with many of the others here.
Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 10-16-24:
27/87 (31.0%), $269.48 – $3.10 ROI
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
