Nine races end the first full week of racing at Keeneland. The featured race today is the Grade 2 Franklin Stakes for fillies and mares, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. This race has produced Breeder’s Cup contenders over the past few years. Star of Mystery could be trying to following the footsteps of Caravel, who won this race in 2022 before winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. First post today is 1:00 (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 6 | 6,10 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 8 | 8,9 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 8 | 7,8 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK6,
All Turf PK3 (R4, R6, R8) |
|
| 5 | 6 | 5,6,11 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 6 | 9 | 9,10 | 3,8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 8 | 6 | 1,6 | 3 | DBL | |
| 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Race 1:
Two year old fillies will go 1 1/16 on the dirt in a restricted maiden special weight race. Spun Up (#6) is the play for me in this race. She debuted in a five furlong sprint on the turf for Bret Calhoun last month at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She was bumped out of the gate, but closed well to get into 4th. She stretches out and switches surfaces for her second career try. She’s bred to handle two turns on any surface, being sired by Hard Spun out of an unraced Flatter mare. Calhoun has very good numbers with second time starters. His numbers dip when talking about second time starters going from sprint to routes as this filly is doing. However, I think she finds a good spot for her second start and could be tough to deal with here. Fearless Lady (#10) is another sprint to route runner in this race. She debuted at 5 ½ furlongs at Churchill in her debut. She was buried along the rail in a short race and now gets a chance to run longer. I don’t love her draw, but I think she’ll be tough if she can work out a trip. Nyquist sired a 23-1 maiden winner on dirt on Friday. Good Temper (#1) is the morning line favorite after a miserable trip at this level in her debut at Churchill a few weeks ago. She had two bad breaks before turning for home in a six furlong race. The trip handicappers will be all over her from her rail draw. Others will probably offer better value, but she could be tough.
Race 2:
$20K N2L claimers will go six furlongs here. I’m operating under the assumption that the Churchill race at this condition on 9/18 is likely going to prove to be significantly better than this group. As a result, I think Quarrymen (#8) is undervalued in the morning line, so at or around his 20-1 figure, I’ll take the chance. He was third three back at this distance and condition in Louisville. I’d like to see Lanerie ride him a little more aggressively from the gate, because I do think being near the back of the pack is not a desirable place to be in sprints on this course. He has shown the ability to be more forwardly placed in the past, so at long odds, there’s enough for me to take that chance. David Jacobsen sends out Refuah (#9), who was claimed for $40K two starts ago. I don’t love the deep drop, but this barn scored earlier in the week with a class dropper that laid over the field on paper. His New York sprints from the spring and summer are likely good enough to beat this field. This barn does well with runners off the 3-6 month layoff that he is coming in off of. Global Pride (#5) comes in from Ohio and is probably the most consistent runner in this field. He’s been second in four of the last five N2L allowance races at Thistledown. I’m not sure how those races translate to this, but I do think the race that Quarrymen is coming out of is tougher than those races. This is not a deep field, so I’ll cover with him, but I don’t love him as the favorite in this one.
Race 3:
A field of five has been assembled for this optional $175K claiming/N4X allowance race going seven furlongs. All runners qualified under the N4X allowance condition. Speedy Traveler (#3) feels like the long speed threat for Phil Bauer, so I think think that gives her a significant edge over the two Chad Brown horses, Tough Street (#1)and Shidabhuti (#2). She cleared the N3X allowance condition on a sloppy course at Churchill last out. She was much the best that afternoon, proving she could handle the seven furlong trip without breaking a sweat. She won on debut on a fast track, but her other three wins all came on off tracks, which is a little bit of a concern. However, there seems to be excuses for her two losses on fast tracks, both of which seem to be in the rear view mirror. I think she can turn the tables on Unsung Melody (#5) who beat her two back, because I don’t think that filly wants to go this far. I think there is plenty working in her favor here. I except Shidabhuti to be the favorite in this spot. She is a Grade 3 winner at this distance in New York and the expectations have always been high for this daughter of Practical Joke. My concern with her at a short price is that she does not have a lot of tactical speed. She was closer to the pace when she won the Grade 3 Distaff at Aqueduct, but that course was playing fairly. Speedy Traveler is faster in the early stages than her opponents in that race and I think she can withstand a more taxing pace. That would leave Shidabhuti a lot of work to do in the late stages. Perhaps the New York bred that is tagging aloud, Tough Street will be able to keep the top pick honest on the front end. That would be the best possible scenario for this one.
Race 4:
Two year old fillies will go 1 1/16 miles on the lawn in this maiden special weight race. Winter Memories and her dam, Memories of Silver were both two of my favorite turf horses. Winter Memories has had some success with her foals, as two of them were winners on debut and went on to do good things in stakes races. Winter Memories herself was also a winner on debut at Saratoga. Her first pairing with Mendelssohn produced the two year old filly, Winter’s Legacy (#8). She is owned by Phillips Racing and trained by James Toner, the same connections as her dam and grand dam. They sold parts or all of some of the other foals from the dam, but perhaps since she passed this year, the desire to own her last filly was strong. The Fair Hill works are solid and Mendelssohn gets 11% winners with debut runners on the turf. She may be a bit of a sentimental pick, but sentiment aside, there’s a lot to like. Necessity (#7) adds blinkers for her second career start. She runs for Norm Casse who has strong numbers with second time starters and strong numbers with horses getting blinkers for the first time. In the last five years, Casse has sent out 13 horses out in their second start while wearing blinkers for the first time. Four of those runners came home winners (31%) and four others hit the board. The works are solid for this daughter of Constitution, so I think she can move forward off of her third place finish at Kentucky Downs last month. On deeper tickets, I’ll try Serving Time (#3), for Cherie DeVaux. Her horses have come to this meet ready to roll. This filly’s debut wasn’t great, but she conceded a lot of ground on the first turn when she was unable to tuck in and settle off the leaders. She was beaten by a runaway winner that came back to lose the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine by a neck in her next start. The pedigree for turf is there and the rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz feels meaningful. She’ll get a better post and should be in position for a better outcome.
Race 5:
The Early Pick-5 ends and the Late Pick-5 begins with an open $16K claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. I always find these races challenging because you often get horses coming in from wide varieties of circuits and races, making it hard to sift through some recent form lines. Koselio (#6) left Iowa in good form for Kelli Martinez. He won two starts in a row at Prairie Meadows and finished a close second in his most recent start. He’s a seven time winner that went off form early in the Prairie Meadows meet. However, those poor efforts all came in sprint races. He reverted to better efforts when getting back to competing at two turns. He feels like a good fit with this group. Ember (#5) missed the break in his last start at Canterbury and he was never really a factor in that race. He ran some much more competitive efforts there and at Prairie Meadows this summer. He’s been in a pattern where he’s winning every other race, and since he’s coming off a loss, I think it’s reasonable to think at minimum that he’ll run back to a better effort. Jose D’Angelo is a sharp claiming trainer and he’s sending out Proven Hope (#11) for the first time off the claim. He was claimed for $10K at Saratoga over the summer and then missed the rest of the meet. With the 1 ⅛ configuration at Aqueduct, there are less two turn options in New York. I think the 1 1/16 distance at two turns will suit him well, especially if D’Angelo can get him back to the form he was showing in the spring.
Race 6:
We head back to the turf for a N2X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 ½ miles. The Sycamore Stakes on Friday was the first race at this distance at this current meet and the pace for that race was much stronger than it looked like it was going to be on paper. Brendan Walsh had a winner with a first time import here on Thursday. He sends out a second time import who scored in her North American debut at Kentucky Downs in her last start. Queen Regent (#9) was sharp last out at this level when going 1 5/16 miles. Despite a 5th place finish in her only start at this distance, I believe she should be able to handle the added distance today. She had trouble in that race overseas, so I won’t hold that one against her. She finished with a flourish while climbing the hill to the stretch last out. Broadway Boogie (#10) is another live runner for James Toner on this card. She is making her third start off a lengthy layoff this afternoon. Prior to the break, she was running strong races at longer distances. She looked like she needed her last two starts while gradually adding distance both times. She cleared the N1X condition in style, winning for fun at this distance at Gulfstream in 2023. Both Lucky Combination (#3) and Marksman Queen (#8) feel like competent backups that could possibly thrive in these longer turf races. Lucky Combination was a ½ length behind Broadway Boogie when met at Kentucky Downs last month. She has improved significantly over her last few starts for Christophe Clement. She’s making her second start off the layoff today, so I see her as a candidate to improve as well. Marksman Queen gets Frankie Dettori to ride. He might be looking to atone for being overly aggressive at this distance in the Sycamore Stakes the other day. This one is trying the marathon distance for the first time. She has more races on synthetic, but her North American turf tries are solid efforts.
Race 7:
This is another stakes quality allowance race, this one being an optional $100K/N3X contest for fillies and mares going 6 ½ furlongs. Anywho (#2) feels like a tough customer in this race. She’s been dealing with Sweet Azteca, who has been dominant in a pair of graded stakes sprint races in Southern California. She has the early speed to make the front in this race, which feels like the pace to be. She was an eight length winner in the slop when she last visited Kentucky. That race was at Churchill, but I think she’s going to be awfully tough to run down in the late stages of this one. Upper Case (#4) would be the backup for me in this race. She has two wins and two second place finishes in her last four starts on traditional dirt. She has tactical speed and should find herself stalking the pace here and making a run at the top of the lane. Paulo Lobo is 0-4 to start this meet, but he often shows up with live runners at Keeneland.
Race 8, The Grade 2 Franklin Stakes:
The story of this stakes race is the return of Star of Mystery (#1), who has been nothing short of brilliant in her two North American turf sprints. She was third at this distance in the Grade 1 Jaipur when facing older males. Cogburn ran a monster race that day, so her third place finish behind him was ultra impressive. She came back to face three year old males in the Grade 3 Quick Call, where she was much the best. That was a strong field that she was facing that day where the third place finisher came back to win a stakes in his next start. My concern is that she’s facing a large field while breaking from the rail. She has some speed, but others are definitely quicker from the gate. She’ll be running with a large target on her back, so I think if a rider has the chance to keep her pinned in, they will. She’s the most likely winner, but she’s going to be even money or less. I’ll be using her, but I’ll make Dontlookbackatall (#6) the top pick in this race. She had a three race win streak snapped when she finished a distant second in the Grade 2 Ladies Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs. Ag Bullet ran a monster race that day, but they opted to try her in the First Lady last weekend. She took a lot of money in that race, but the mile trip proved to be a little too far at that top level of competition. Dontlookbackatall has some nice wins on flat courses, including a Grade 3 win in the Caress. That was a career top speed figure for her and I believe that this four year old filly could take another step forward. I think she has more speed than the shorter prices and she could be able to get the jump on this field. Roses For Debra (#3) would be a logical backup in this race. She has a huge win on this course in the Giant’s Causeway this spring. She handled the stretch out to 6 ½ furlongs on synthetic to win the Presque Isle Masters in her last start. Turf is still her best surface, but this is a tall task today. I do think she’ll need to get a better trip than the favorite to have a shot.
Race 9:
$40K open claimers going six furlongs will close out the week at Keeneland. Night Time (#7) has been sidelined since finishing a distant third to a pair of stakes caliber runners in allowance company here in the spring. William Morey drops him in class to a level where he should be able to find some success. He was a strong winner here last fall and he used that race to propel him to a victory in the Holiday Cheer Stakes at Turfway. The works are solid for a barn that has strong numbers with runners coming back off layoffs. I think he gets the job done. The backup for me in this race is Harrodsburg (#2). He was a winner in the slop here in the fall and then scored in his next two races after that score. His last two have been disappointing though. He was wide in a compact field two back and he did break through the gate last out which could have easily taken him off his game.
Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 10-11-24:
19/59 (32.2%), $182.92 – $3.10 ROI
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
