Nine races are on tap this Thursday at Keeneland and four of them are carded for the turf. The weather looks dry so these four races, which all drew full fields, should go off without a hitch. We’ll get our first look at two year olds on the turf as fillies will sprint 5 ½ furlongs in the second race. The featured race today is the 7th, which is a N2X allowance race for four year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles over the turf. First post today is set for 1:00 (EDT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK4 |
| 3 | 7 | 1,6,7 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 4 | 8 | 1,8 | 10 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 5 | 9 | 9,10 | 11 | DBL, PK3, PK5,
All-Turf PK3 (R5, R7, R9) |
|
| 6 | 4 | 4,9 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 7 | 4 | 4 | 1,12 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 8 | 5 | 5 | 8 | DBL | |
| 9 | 4 | 4,5,13 | 8 |
Race 1:
Fillies and mares will start things off in a $50K maiden claiming contest going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. I’m interesting in Fascinator (#3) in this spot for Ed Moger. She’s moving to the dirt for the first time after five starts on turf or synthetic. Her efforts at Turfway over the winter were not bad. Most recently, she was a close second with $30K-$20K maiden claimers there. She’s sired by Clubhouse Ride, who has gotten 20% winners in dirt routes over the last five years. She’s the first foal to race from the dam Stormy Too, who won her first one only career race on a traditional dirt course. Irad Ortiz taking the mount won’t hurt her chances. True Class (#4) will be the backup for me in this race. She showed some speed before fading in maiden special weight company on the Tapeta at Turfway last time out. She’s bred to go long, as all of the dam’s winners have come at distances of a mile or longer. American Freedom gets 17% winners with his dirt routers, so there’s reason to believe that he could shake loose early and keep finding late.
Race 2:
While there are some interesting pedigrees in this maiden special weight for two year olds going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf, I think this race runs through Longshoreman (#10) for Wesley Ward. He’s the second foal to race from the dam, Lady Pauline. That mare was an easy winner in a 4 ½ furlong race on the dirt here in 2019. She went on to finish second by a length at Royal Ascot in her second and final start. She’s sired by Twirling Candy, who gets 17% winners with turf sprinters overall and 17% with debuting turf sprinters. I think the pedigree and the human connections make too much sense in this spot. If the favorite is going to go down, perhaps Tough Critic (#8) would be the value play to get the job done. Caravaggio has been very good with North American first time starters scoring in turf sprints, winning 32% of the time (8-25). George Weaver has been excellent with turf sprinters over the last year or two, winning with 23% of his turf sprint starters since the start 2024. A deeper saver for me would be Twirling Ridge (#5) making his second start at this meet. I thought he had a chance on the dirt on debut, but I noted that I thought we might see him on the grass at some point. He’s one of three runners in this field sired by Twirling Candy. I do like that he has more racing experience than most in this spot. However, I think the two pedigree plays are going to be very tough in this spot.
Race 3:
Seven fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in a $25K starter allowance race. The only qualifier for this spot is that a horse must have been entered for a tag of $25K or less at least one time since the beginning of 2024. For a smaller field, there’s a decent amount of early speed signed on here. Pens Street (#7) for Chris Hartman figures to be the one that is going to get rolling late in this one. She was really good in a one turn mile race at a similar condition at Churchill back in February. She went to the sidelines and resurfaced in a $35K-$30K claiming race at Oaklawn where she was clearly second best. She makes her second start off the layoff today and should be one to look for in the final furlong. Best Seller (#1) is looking to rebound a dull effort in the Laptourel Overnight Stakes at Oaklawn. She had rail position that day and never fired, finishing last of seven. She drops in class to a more suitable level of competition. Prior to that race, she has three strong efforts in a row on traditional dirt. She’s going to have competition for the lead early, but she does have staying power on a course that has been kind to horses on or near the front end at this meet. Windy Walk (#6) was good enough to win the Rampart Stakes two starts ago at Gulfstream when going a one turn mile. She led every step of the way against a weak field for that race. She crumbled on the Taperta in her last start and has been on the sidelines since. She broke her maiden on this course and she was a winner here in the fall at a similar condition. She’s going to be tough if she’s right.
Race 4:
11 are entered in this $20K N2L claiming race going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. This is a wild spot for a half to one of the 2025 Derby favorites, Sandman to show up, but that’s what we’re working with here. Bernin Tune (#8) makes a lot of sense as he’ll try a traditional dirt course for the first time in this spot. His form on the turf and the synthetic has been up and down, but he’s run some big races against much better fields. He takes a bit of a plunge after a dull effort last month at Turfway while making his first start for Mike Maker. His two dirt works here aren’t great, but his last seemed much better than the one prior to that. River Ridge (#1) ran well in the slop when going two turns on the dirt at the Fair Grounds two starts ago. He was a non-factor at the beaten $30K claiming level there on the turf last out. He’s shown enough to make me think he can handle this distance at this level today. B Wayne (#10) is another Fair Grounds shipper to look at in this race. He doesn’t have a ton of early speed and with his wide draw, I imagine the play for Jose Ortz is going to be letting him settle off the pace and then trying to make one sustained bid. That hasn’t been the best kind of trip over this course, but he’s good enough to think about using at least on the B line here.
Race 5:
The Late Pick-5 and the All-Turf Pick-3 begin in this 12 furlong N1X allowance race on the turf for older horses. I’m going to try The Dover Specter (#9) on top in this race. He ran well at this level when going this same distance on the Tapeta at Turfway last month. He was more forwardly placed that day and he was beaten by The Ginger Wizard, who is a full brother to The Grey Wizard.He’s sired by English Channel out of a Kitten’s Joy mare, so even though he wasn’t great at this distance at Kentucky Downs last summer. I like what I’ve seen from him in his last two starts and I think he’s going to be more at this level on the turf as a four year old. Gulfstream has carded some competitive allowance races at longer distances on the turf during their Championship Meet. We saw some runners from those races last week and yesterday in these 1 ½ races here at Keeneland. Steadfast Resolve (#10) was last seen there, running in a race at this level going 11 furlongs. He was third that day behind Mutawiid, who came back to finish third in a N2X race at this distance here last week. The winner of that race, Tucson, is better than anyone in this field, so I do think that last effort will hold up at this level today. He’s been very good on the turf of late and Irad Ortiz taking the mount is another plus. On deeper tickets, Dairago (#11) could be interesting at longer odds. Unlike the top pick, he regressed on the synthetic over the winter at Turfway. His grass efforts in Southern California last fall were better efforts. The distance is a question mark, but the pedigree supports having success in these longer distance grass races .
Race 6:
Three year old fillies will go six furlongs in this maiden special weight contest. I’m on Me and Molly McGee (#4) making her debut for Peter Eurton. He’s not a great trainer with first time starters, but this filly looks like a runner, as she’s been clocking some quick workouts over this oval lately. She’s the first foal to race from a winless dam, however, she’s sired by Vekoma and his runners have been awesome at the beginning of his stud career. He’s getting 24% winners with debuting dirt sprints and 23% winners with dirt sprinters overall. I think she can spring a mild upset over the favorite, Velvet Devil (#9). She ran a big race to be second in a race at this condition and distance on the Risen Star undercard at the Fair Grounds. She’s just missed in both of her career starts there, so I see her having advantage over many of the other runners in this race,
Race 7:
The feature is a really good N2X allowance race where 8 of the 12 runners are stakes and 5 of the 12 runners are graded stakes placed. Four year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles on the turf here. The favorite is a first time import for Chad Brown, Intellect (#11). While his success with Europeans shipping here on the turf is undeniable, this gelding doesn’t strike me as one of the better runners that he’s brought to the states. The second choice is El Rezeen (#6) for Pletcher, who was last seen losing in a three horse photo in the Grade 3 Jockey Club Derby Invitational at Aqueduct in October. While this race is a starting point for what could be a promising four year old campaign, I think the distance will be a little short for him. The pick for me will be Evade (#4) for Mike Maker and Luis Saez. I liked him two weeks ago when he was entered in a one mile race at this level, but that race was taken off the turf. He has fired fresh before, scoring at Epsom last year when making his first start of 2024. He was sharp in his first start in the states, finishing 4th in the Grade 1 Franklin Sampson Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Both Depiction (#1) Herchee (#3) finished a little better than him in the Grade 3 Bryan Station here last fall, but he rebounded nicely in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf at Churchill in his next start. He was last seen in January, struggling in a handicap over the Tapeta course at Gulfstream. He gets back on the turf today and I think the rider change to Luis Saez will be helpful. I’m expecting a big effort from him in this wide open affair. I didn’t love the comeback race from Royal Majesty (#12) at Gulfstream last time out. He was widest of all when try to rally into a slow to moderate pace. However, I do think his body of work from his three year old season speaks for itself. He He cleared the N1X condition here in the spring and then went on to run credible races in five straight stakes races, three of which were graded stakes. I don’t love Post 12, but I do think he’s a horse that could be sneaky in here, especially if his odds float up over his 10-1 morning line. It’s been a disappointing meet for Cherie DeVaux, winning only 1 time with 22 starters going into closing week. However, I do think Depiction is live in this race with Jose Ortiz in the irons. He almost pulled off the 44-1 shocker in the Bryan Station last fall when making his last start, DeVaux has good numbers off the bench and I think there’s a reasonable chance that he’ll pick up right where he left off.
Race 8:
I’m not going to try to beat Ancient World (#5), who was excellent on debut at the FAir Grounds. He missed the break and spotted the field several lengths, but he came roaring down the stretch and got up in time to win by a length. The dam was a stakes winning sprinter and she’s produced a few capable runners. This gelded son of Into Mischief cost $5525K at the Keeneland September Sale. He clearly has ability and should be tougher with a better start against an average N2L allowance field here. Mischief River (#8) is another Into mischief runner with a live look in this race. He was second to Getaway Car in the Grade 3 Best Pal at Del Mar this past summer. He earned a spot in that race after winning on debut in June at Los Alamitos. He ran well on the turf at one mile but went to the sidelines after faltering in the American Pharoah Stakes behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull. He changes barns and has worked well enough locally to think about using in a race like this.
Race 9:
The nightcap today is a maiden special weight for three year old fillies going one mile. This is the second division of a race at this condition that was run on Wednesday. Kimber Spice (#4), Halstyn Rose (#5), Celebrity Ro (#7), and Take Note of This (#12) were all stuck on the AE list yesterday, but they’re all in the body of the field today. Kimber Spice is the one for me in this race. Her last race was clearly designed to stretch her legs after being away for nine months. She finished a distant third in a maiden special weight sprint on the Tapeta at Turfway. Her three turf efforts last season as a three year old were stronger. She’ll stretch out to two turns, which is what she’s going to want to do. Adding blinkers could help her cause as well in this spot. Princess Attitude (#13) in the first to draw in, should there be a defection in this race. She was foaled by the very talented turf mare, Keertana. She was a multiple graded stakes winning mare who had a pair of wins and a pair of third place finishes in four career starts on this course. If she gets in, she’ll be making her third start off the layoff after pairing her first two Beyers this season. The post is no picnic, but I think there’s ability there. Halstyn Rose is the lukewarm favorite in this race, stretching out to two turns for the first time. I never want to take a horse at a short price while doing something new for the first time. In addition, Richard Baltas doesn’t good numbers lately with runners going from sprints to routes. The pedigree and the tactical speed make her desirable in this race though, so she’s going to be on my tickets. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in a firster, Radiance. George Arnold trains this daughter of Blame who has been working well in the AM. The dam foaled a runner that won in her first time at two turns on the turf, however that was after three sprint races. I think she’s more interesting than the other debut runners.
Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 4-19-25:
34/115 (29.6%), $282.97 – $2.46 ROI
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
