Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – By Eric Solomon

The nine race Thursday card at Keeneland starts today at 1:00 (ET). Three of the nine races are carded for the turf, so the $3 All-Turf Pick-3 is back in play, starting with Race 4. There are going to be several short priced favorites on this card, but I do think there are some good opportunities to play against some of them. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

While I do think there are places to beat some of the short prices on this card, the opener, which is a $50K starter allowance race for two year olds, is not one of them. Wesley Ward sends out Bostontonian (#3). If that name sounds familiar to Keeneland players, it’s likely because he was entered and scratched three times here in the spring. He finally debuted in June at Churchill where he was an odds on winner. He came back in a New York Bred Stakes race in the slop at Finger Lakes where he easily disposed of his rivals that day. He’s eligible for this race by virtue of starting in a restricted maiden special weight race. He seems to be faster and classier than his six rivals here. Blake James (#1) is the backup in the event that the Ward runner scratches again. He was impressive in his second start when beating a $30K maiden claiming field at Churchill. He overcame some trouble in a race where he showed vast improvement from his debut. I do think the seven furlong distance suits him better than some of the others here. 

Race 2:

Colonial Rose (#1) for Brad Cox is going to be a short price in this $20K maiden claiming race. Her connections make her hard to ignore in this spot, but I would have liked to have seen a better effort out of her when making her first start in 2024 at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month. The added distance should suit her, so she’s going to be on my multi-race tickets, but I do think she’s vulnerable in this race. I’m going to to try a 20-1 longshot on the morning line and make Our Prayer (#7) the top pick in this race. Her only start at two turns on the dirt came in an off the turf race going 1 ⅛ miles at Tampa when making her second career start. I don’t know how deep that field was, but she did run a career top speed figure in that race. She came back from a five month vacation in a $30K maiden claiming race in the slop at Churchill when going a one turn mile. While she was flat in that spot, I can forgive that effort. I think she’s a candidate to move forward in her second start off the layoff, and if she can run back to that Tampa race, I think she’ll be right there with this field today. Elodine (#2) is another longshot in this field with some efforts that would likely be good enough to win with this group. She’s going to be overlooked after a pair of dull races at Hawthorne at Churchill. She didn’t fire on the turf two back and she struggled at Churchill while covering a lot of extra ground at this level last time out. Her inside positioning gives her a fast track to the lead should Gerardo Corrales want to go that route. I’m not sure she can take them all the way, but I do think she can grab a piece of pie here. 

Race 3:

Nine fillies and mares are signed on for this $30K starter allowance race going 6 ½ furlongs. I think the two shorter prices make sense in this race, but I do prefer Lil Gin N Class (#5) over Wailua (#3). Lil Gin N Class has been continually improving for Tim Eggerton. Most of those efforts came against Indiana breeds, but she ran a big race to be second at this level at Churchill in her most recent start. She wants to be out front, so Wailua is likely going to have to come and catch her. While her last three efforts have been consistent, she’s struggled to break well from the gate each time. Flavien Prat will take his turn today, and he’s definitely been upgrading several of the mounts he’s been on. However, looking at the odds differential (6-5 compared to 7-2), I’m seeing two horses that have consistently run top figures, but I’m going to get the better price on the horse that historically breaks well from the gate and puts herself in a much better position to win from the outset. 

Race 4:

The first turf race of the day is a N3X allowance race for fillies and mares, going 1 1/16 miles. 23 horses filled the entry box, so this race was split into two divisions. The second heat will be run as the 8th race this afternoon. While I’m not crazy about the post, I think Join the Dance (#11) is an interesting longshot in this race. She’s been a fairly consistent horse that has two poor efforts in her eight starts since joining Dallas Stewart’s barn. One of those races was her last at Kentucky Downs. That was her first start there and some horses just don’t run their A game on that unique course. We’ve seen many runners rebound from dull efforts there at this meet. Her other clunker came on a yielding course in her only try in graded stakes company in the spring. She ran a strong race at Churchill at this level in June and I trust whatever moves Frankie Dettori is going to try to make here. Justifiable Belle (#3) is the other runner for me in this race. She was much sharper in his last start at Kentucky Downs than the top pick, pairing her career high Beyer from her previous start at Churchill. She’s a four year old filly that seems to be getting better with each trip to the track. She has three wins and two second place finishes in her last six starts, including a score in a first level allowance race on this course in the spring, There’s a lot to like with this Justify filly conditioned by Ian Wilkes. 

Race 5:

Two year olds will go about seven furlongs on the Beard Course in this maiden special weight. I think Master Controller (#4) makes some sense in this race at long odds for Brittany Vanden Berg. She’s already teamed up with Chris Emigh for one winner at this meet. This Tapiture colt debuted on the turf at Kentucky Downs where he showed some brief speed and then leveled off. I like the cutback in distance from the mile on the turf to the seven plus furlongs here on the dirt. Tapiture gets 16% winners from his runners in dirt sprints and this barn has excelled with runners going from turf to dirt. Uncle Jim (#3) debuts for leading trainer, Brad Cox in this race. The dam produced one winner to win on debut as a two year old, and City of Light is getting 15% winners from his first timer starters in dirt sprint races. Obviously the barn is to be respected, especially when sending out a newbie in a field where the experienced runners haven’t set the world on fire. Copp (#5) is also worth thinking about here while making his second career start. He didn’t have the best break when debuting at this level at Churchill last month. He did close some ground and pass half the field to get into 5th that day. McCarthy doesn’t have great numbers with second time starters, but I do see him as a candidate to improve. 

Race 6: 

We’re back on the grass with a N2X allowance race for three year olds and up going 5 ½ furlongs. I think Finster (#7) is fascinating in this spot. I’m a sucker for horses that take a big step forward when making their first start on the turf, and this Sky Mesa colt fits the bill. He was decent when breaking his maiden in an off the race in Indiana, but he was very strong when clearing the N1X condition on the turf at Ellis in August. They opted not to run him at Kentucky Downs, but I feel like they wanted to get a race into him before this meet. They tried him at this level on the dirt at Churchill last month where he battled for the lead in an aggressively run race before tiring late. I like him getting back on the grass today and I think he can sit the right trip off what should be a strong early pace. Double Clutch (#4) is worth looking at as a backup here. She ran a strong race at this distance here last fall, but she can up flat in the spring. She may have needed that race, making her first start in four months. She cleared the N1X condition at Churchill when going a mile in June. She struggled in a stakes race at Ellis in her next start, but she ran quite well at Kentucky Downs last out. I think the distance might be a tad short for her, but she will get the right pace scenario to match her late running style. 

Race 7: 

Fillies and mares will go 1 ⅛ miles on the main track in what I think is one of the more wide open races on the afternoon. Chilled (#1) is the top pick for me while looking to give Victoria Oliver her third winner of the meet. She has eight career starts, but only three of them have been in two-turn dirt races. She ran well here in April to be third when going 1 1/16 miles. She struggled in her next two starts at Churchill when going the one turn mile there. She ran back on 6/22 in a race at 1 1/16 miles, which is a two turn race at Churchill and she decimated that field by eight lengths. That effort was good enough to try her in the Monmouth Oaks where she took a good bit of money. She had some traffic issues early in the run to the first turn and never really found her footing that day. She was 4th in an allowance race on the turf in her most recent try. I think her rail draw will allow her to find a good spot in the second flight, which will hopefully allow her to take aim on the front-runners late. I think Midsummer March (#10) is another live 20-1 longshot on this card. I really liked her maiden win at Oaklawn in February, scoring impressively at 20-1 on the Rebel undercard. She didn’t fire in the Fair Grounds Oaks and her next two starts came on the turf. She was ridden for speed last out at Churchill and that tactic didn’t seem to fit her, as she faded badly. She’s making her third start off the layoff today and I think we’ll see a better effort from her. The lightbulb went off for Forseen (#8) two starts back when she was a winner in maiden special weight company at Churchill. However, she was pulled up in her first try against winners at Ellis when she was last seen on the track. She’s had a few sharp works since then, so I do think there’s a chance that she comes back to that strong effort two back. The lightbulb also went off for Union Mist (#9) in her last start, which was an open length win at Churchill. That score was her first win in 10 career tries. She was making her first start since June, so it’s conceivable that this three year old Union Rags filly grew up some over the summer. I don’t love her post for this race and I think her 3-1 morning line price is lower than I am comfortable taking on her or anyone else in this race. However, a duplicate effort would likely put her right there at the end. 

Race 8:

I think this division of the N3X allowance race for fillies and mares is the deeper of the two races on paper. I’m interested in Elounda Queen (#7) for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. She ran a solid race here in her North American debut last fall when she finished 7th in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. On the down side, she has yet to hit the board in her six other North American starts. On the plus side though she has been competitive in some tough races. This is her third start since being moved to the Cox barn. She’s had a few unlucky trips and though she is still eligible for the N2X condition, I like that Cox is moving her up to face this level. She’s Lookin Lucky (#12) is going to need to work out a trip from her outside post in this race. She’s a four year old filly who ran a pair of high 80’s Beyer figures in her last two starts. More important to me in the consistency that she’s shown in her first three races in her career on the turf. Chad Brown sends out Saffron Moon (#4) who I view as more of a backup in this spot. She’s making her five year old debut late in the season, sidelined since running a distant second in the Grade 3 Cardinal Stakes at Churchill last November. She is a perfect 2-2 on this course, but the continued stops and starts are enough to keep me guessing with her. 

Race 9:

The nightcap is a maiden special weight for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Visually, I really liked the dirt debut from Bedard (#4) when making his dirt debut as a maiden in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie last month. He ran against a good horse in Vitality that day,and while he was third, I thought he ran a sneaky good race. He broke well and was ridden into a spot where he was three wide on the first turn. He was in tight and shuffled back early. He made an early move to try to get to the front and he was sustaining that bid, despite being passed by a better horse on that day. Vitality was 6th to Caitlinhergrtness in the Kings Plate in August and that filly came back to run a strong third in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on the grass here last weekend. While it’s tough to gauge the depth of those Canadian Triple Crown races, I do think the form is holding up well this year. Know Who You Are (#6) made his first start in 10 ½ months at the end of August at this level at Ellis. I thought he ran a strong race to be 4th that day at long odds. That was his third career start and his first race when treated with race day Lasix. William Cowan gave him a little extra time off, which has been a productive strategy for his runners in the last two years. I’d prefer him more if he was breaking inside of Duke of Duval (#5). He had the better trip when they met at Ellis, finishing about four lengths better than his rival that day. He burned some money as the favorite last out at Churchill though. Consistency has been a bit of a struggle, so taking less than 9-2 will be hard for me. I do think his best effort wins this race though. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 10-13-24: 

23/79 (29.1%), $205.26 – $2.60 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.