Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Wednesday, October 16th, 2024 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll hit the halfway point of the meet with an eight race Wednesday card at Keeneland. Cooler, fall-like temperatures are in store for this week, but again, the weather looks to be dry. This should allow for the races carded on the turf to remain as scheduled, which has been the case for the first eight days of racing. Two of the eight races will be on the grass today meaning that there will be no All Turf Pick-3. Not including the also-eligible runners, the average field size on the card is 10.25 starters per race, so there are plenty of other great wagering opportunities for handicappers to take advantage of.  First post today is 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts with an eight horse, beaten $20K claiming field, going six furlongs on the main track. All eight runners qualified for this race under the N3L condition. The even money favorite in this field is Good LIke Magic (#6) for Brad Cox. He’s never finished off the board in five career starts, including a win in the Kip Deville Stakes last year at Remington. He made his first start of the year in a beaten $40K claiming race at Ellis. He was a voided claim that day and now he shows up at this $20K level. Prat takes the mount, which seems like a good sign, and the fact that he’s racing at this level might just be a numbers game for a barn the size of Cox’s. If I’m playing the horizontal sequences, he’ll be on my tickets, but I can’t play him to win at even money or lower. I’ll make Supremely (#4) the top pick in this race. He finished second in a starter allowance here in April. Since then, he’s made three starts, two at Churchill and one at Ellis. The Ellis race sandwiched in between the two Churchill starts was respectable, but those two races in Louisville were bad. He came up empty at this level last out, but he does have races in the not-so distant past that would make him competitive with the favorite. Irad Ortiz didn’t ride here on Opening Weekend, and he didn’t have the best week last week, going 4-33. However, he has been riding some longer priced runners, and he has upgraded several of them. 

Race 2:

Two year olds will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this $50K maiden claiming race. Deeply Hidden (#4) feels like a weird favorite in this race. He made four starts from May to July, running three times at Churchill and once at Del Mar. He’s been off for almost three months now and he returns to the races while dropping for a tag and stretching out to two turns for the first time. His trainer, Kent Sweezy, does have a winner at this meet, but he doesn’t have great numbers off the layoff or with runners going from sprints to routes. He’s had 15 runners over the last five years coming off a 61-180 day layoff, while also routing for the first time. Those runners are 0-15 with only one in the money finisher. He’s a pass for me in this spot. Lumber Legacy (#5) was a non-factor while racing wide in a maiden special weight when going a mile at Kentucky Downs in his last start. He drops in class and tries the dirt for the first time. John Ennis has decent numbers with this move and this Justify colt drilled a nice work on the dirt at the Thoroughbred Training Center last week in preparation for this race. Justify is known for siring some very nice turf horses, but he runners have a 15% strike rate in dirt routes so far. The debut on the turf for this one wasn’t terrible, so I think he could live in this spot. Morally (#6) is the only runner in this field with two turn experience on the dirt. He finished 5th at this level at Churchill last month when going this same distance. His figures are trending up and he’s making his third start on the dirt today and his fourth overall. I can see him improving enough to make a difference in the outcome of this race. Both G. Erik (#1) and Il Marchese (#7) are coming out of a restricted maiden special weight at Churchill where the winner dominated that field by a whopping 14 lengths. While Il Marchese is making his second career start after showing a little speed before fading badly, I prefer G. Erik, making his third career start. He was moving well in the mud after a slow start. He pressed the pace while wide in that same race last out and had no answer once the race winner began to pull away. I think blinkers going on, along with the rail post, will help his cause in this spot. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this $20K N2L claiming race. There are some Ohio shippers in this race that appear to live, and perhaps the best of the bunch is Just Like You (#12), breaking from the outside stall in this one. She was a dominating winner in a $15K0$10K maiden claiming race at Belterra in April. She shipped to Horseshoe Indianapolis where she struggled in her first start in N2L allowance company, but ran a better race in June when making her second start over that course. She was away for 2 ½ months and she returned to Belterra with a solid second place finish in N2L allowance company. She’s in for a tag, but the purse that she’s running for here is almost 3X larger than the purse for the allowance race in Ohio. I like that she’s shown the ability to stalk the pace, which is a favorable running style from her outside post. There are several cheap speed runners in this race, so I do believe she’ll be one that could be gaining on them late. Valhalla Vixen (#11) is an interesting longshot prospect in this race. She’s coming here from Canterbury, where she struggled in a two turn allowance race on the turf. Her maiden breaking score with maiden special weight types came in her only career start on a fast track. She ran twice on off-tracks in Minnesota and was off the board both times. She paired her last two dirt Beyer figures and could be a horse that is sitting on a better race when coming back to the dirt. The morning line favorite in this spot is Sombra Dorada (#10). While it’s tough in these races to figure out who is actually moving down in class, she’s one that has clearly been facing better horses. She broke her maiden in a restricted maiden special weight at Churchill back in June. As a result, she was eligible to run in some of the $50K starter allowance races in Kentucky. She finished third in the mud at that level at Ellis, but she struggled late at shorter odds at Churchill last month. The drop in class makes sense, but I did think she was going to be more competitive than she was in her last start. I also think she would have fit well in the next race, which is a $40K N2L claiming spot, where there’s a good chance she would have been the morning line favorite. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will go 6 ½ furlings in this $40K N2L claiming race. While there are horses coming from other circuits for the previous race, six of the eight runners in this race last raced in Kentucky, and all eight runners have multiple races in the Bluegrass State. While I didn’t like the Kent Sweezy horse that was favored in the second, I think his filly, The Big Calhouna (#4) has a good shot as the second choice on the morning line in this race. Sweezy does has better numbers first off the claim and his winning percentage for the year (#13%) is stronger than her previous trainer’s winning percentage (2%). She was making decent progress in sprint races prior to being claimed for $30K last month. She’s been under Sweezy’s care for almost a full month now, so I do think she’s a candidate to move forward in this race. Scrupulous (#7) is an interesting runner making only her 4th career start today. She debuted in August of 2023 and took a significant step forward in her second career start last September. She was away for a year after that race and she came back to run last in a $50K N2L claiming race where she was running with the waiver. That was her first start for Steve Hobby who claimed her from her $50K maiden claiming win at Churchill last year. Running for the waiver was a free roll in that race where she didn’t have a great trip. She broke out and brushed with a rival at the break. She was forced to steady twice after that, never really getting an opportunity to gain any forward momentum. She drops a level in class and should be more competitive this afternoon. Despo’s Dream (#6) was claimed when breaking her maiden last out in a $20K maiden claimer at Churchill. Thomas Van Berg gets 15% winners first off the claim since the beginning of 2023. She does look like a horse that is starting to figure some things out. This is a decent step up in class, but I also feel this is not the most consistent field for this condition. 

Race 5:

There’s a lot going on in this race which ends both the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 and it begins the Late Pick-4. Fillies and mares will dash 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in this N1X allowance contest. As could be expected, there is a decent amount of early speed signed on for this race. We’ve seen closers fare well on this course in both sprints and routes, so I think La Foret (#9) is a live longshot here. She closed from out of the clouds to break her maiden at Ellis on debut in July. She came back in a N1X race at Kentucky Downs where she looked like she had some trouble figuring out the downhill part of the course. She fell back well off the pace after an alert break. She finished with some interest, but never really had much of a seam to run through. She went to the dirt last month for her next start at Churchill where she never seemed comfortable. She paired her first two Beyer figures on the grass and I see her as a candidate to move forward in this race, coming from well off the pace. Penny’s Smile (#7) is likely going to be a part of the speed puzzle in this race. She tried the turf for the first time at Kentucky Downs and she ran a big time race, powering home as they climbed the hill late. This race will be a test for her, but I do think she has a high ceiling and a pedigree that suggests grass will be where she does her best work. Moon Spun (#6) found herself on the lead in the same Kentucky Downs allowance race that La Foret is coming out of. They didn’t go particularly fast in the opening half mile of that 6 ½ sprint, and she was breaking from the rail, so Saez didn’t have a ton of better options. She is at her best when she’s able to stalk the pace like she did when breaking her maiden at Gulfstream in March. Her figures are strong, but they are a bit flat. Still, I see her being right in the mix with this group. Cairo Dream (#14) needs help to draw into this race, but if she does run, she could be a problem for this group. I don’t know who she beat at Hawthorne, but she was well in front of the group that she did beat. She was six lengths off the leaders at the first point of call and six lengths in front of the runner-up when they crossed the wire. She continues to work well in Illinois. Since she isn’t based here, not being guaranteed a spot in the starting gate will likely make it less likely that she makes this trip. However, if the racing office does know that two runners will defect and she does come to town, she could be a problem for this group.

Race 6: 

The final Pick-3 wager of the afternoon begins with a N1X allowance race for three year olds and up going 1 ⅛ miles on the main track. Generous Tipper (#5) is the play for me in this race, making his second start off the layoff for Ken McPeek. He ran in some highly productive maiden special weight races last year at Ellis, drawing off to win by  7 ½ lengths in his third career start. He made his last start as a two year old in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity where he was third behind Locked and The Wine Steward. He made his first start in 11 months four weeks ago when running in a competitive N1X allowance at Churchill. He was a little flat in that race, finishing 7th, beaten four lengths. He was covered up for the better part of that race, and he looked like he had some run, but when he tried to tip out, the hole closed up. Hernandez moved to try to go through a hole on the inside, but that was shut off as well. Six runners were within two lengths of each other on the wire. I think he’s dangerous here if he can work out a better trip. I don’t think there’s a chance that we get him at 8-1, but at 4-1 or better, I still think he represents decent value. Yellow Brick (#8) was third, beaten only a neck in that same race. He’s a nice horse who is capable of some big efforts when going two turns on the dirt. He came with a seven wide bid that day and came within a neck of the winner, while dead-heating with King Russell for third. Deep closers have struggled a bit on the dirt on this course,and the fact that he only has one win in 13 career tries is not ideal. I still see him as the most likely runner to win this race if the top pick falters. 

Race 7: 

The featured race of the afternoon is a N2X allowance race going 1 ½ miles on the turf course. Like the other turf race on the card, this is a wide open affair. I landed on Six Minus (#5) as the top pick. He’s cutting back in distance after finishing 4th in the Nashville Gold Cup going 2 1/16 miles at Kentucky Downs in his last start. He was a solid third at this level when going 11 furlongs at the Spa three back and he was second in the John’s Call to Cathkin Peak. He has a win at this distance and he ran well here in the spring. Others might have a higher ceiling, but I do see him being very competitive with this group. King Curlin (#7) has been up and down in form ,but he’s dropping out of stakes company for the first time in his last four starts. He was a winner at Gulfstream at this distance on New Year’s Day, clearing the N1X condition. He ran a respectable race in the Elkhorn and in the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Preview race at Ellis, however, he was poor in both the Louisville and the Kentucky Turf Cup. He makes his third start off the layoff today, so there’s reason to believe that the best version of him is capable of showing up. Mendelssohns March (#10) is another consistent type that typically runs his race. I haven’t seen a ton of growth from this one from his three year old season, but perhaps these longer races will be what drives him forward. Better Bet (#12) draws the far outside in this race, which is not always ideal. While there is plenty of time to sort things out in these marathon races, getting comfortable in a spot is a key to success here. He cleared the N1X condition at Saratoga when going 1 ⅜ miles two starts ago. He stepped up to this level at Kentucky Downs where he was 4th, beaten five lengths. His career top figure came at this distance on this course in April, but I really don’t want to take any price lower than 4-1 on anyone in this race (He’s 7-2 on the morning line). I don’t love him as the favorite, but I do see him as a contender. 

Race 8:

The day ends with a $20K maiden claiming race going 1 1/18 miles on the main track. There are several professional maidens that will be looking to survive this nine furlong test. Rocket Night (#10) was second at this level when going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill last month. He struggled in his two previous starts, but his last effort seemed to signal a return to his better form that he displayed earlier in the year. He has enough tactical early speed to be forwardly placed and hopefully find a spot to tuck in to avoid losing too much ground going into the first turn. Ultimate Strike (#9) has been in better form in his last few starts since joining Carlos Santamaria’s barn. He broke from the outside stall and was four wide going into the turn in the same race that Rocket Night is coming out of. He breaks to the inside of that runner while returning to the track where he posted his highest Beyer Speed Figure in his five races as a two year old last year. He’s been a longshot in his last three starts, but he is slowly getting better. Whiskey or Wine (#11) is a bit of an X-factor in this race. He ran okay on the dirt in his debut, but his next six starts came on the synthetic at Presque Isle. His figures are a little light on Tapeta, but if he’s able to build off his debut number while coming back to the main track, he could be tough. Jose Ortiz taking the mount for Kevin Rice feels like a positive sign. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 10-13-24: 

23/79 (29.1%), $205.26 – $2.60 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.