The final week of the Fall Meet at Keeneland begins with an eight race Wednesday card. As has been the case on Wednesdays, there is no All Turf Pick-3 wager. However, the featured race is a stakes quality allowance race sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Somehow, the Pick-6 was hit on Sunday, but the Late Pick-5 was not, triggering a $301,895 carryover. That wager starts with the 4th race this afternoon, set for 2:36 PM (EDT). First post today is 1:00 (EDT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 2 | 2,4,5 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 5,7,8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 1,3 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 4 | 7 | 5,7 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 5 | 4 | 4,10 | 8 | 13 | DBL, PK3, PK4 |
| 6 | 7 | 5,6,7 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 7 | 6 | 6 | 10 | DBL | |
| 8 | 6 | 4,6 | 8,10 |
Race 1:
The day starts off with a $50K starter allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. This is a fairly wide open event, but I think Cha Cha Chukka (#2) has a slight edge. She was second at this level last out at Churchill when getting back on the dirt. Her running style fits the track profile over the last week of racing. She came from off the pace to score two back when racing on the turf in Indiana. Brendan Walsh has had a solid meet and Prat has hit with 27% of his runners during this stand. I like her progression of races coming into this spot. Crazy Cami (#4) feels like a horse that could be better at two turns. She ran okay in the Grade 1 Alcibiades last year, finishing 6th, 12 lengths behind Candied. That was her one and only try at two turns. She went six and seven furlongs when making her first two starts of the year in the spring, She was sidelined throughout the summer and came back in a six furlong sprint at Churchill last month. She stretches out to two turns in her second try off the layoff, after posting a career top speed figure last time out. Lucy Got Game (#5) is lightly raced, making only her 5th career start. She’s making her third start off the layoff today for Tom Amoss. She broke her maiden going two turns in a 7 ½ furlong race at Delta in February before going to the sidelines. She faltered in her return race at Ellis, but her last start was strong, going gate to wire to win in a $50K N2L claimer at Churchill. Front end speed wasn’t great here over the weekend, so that is a bit of a concern for me. However, if she can slightly improve from her last start, I don’t think they’ll be able to compete with her.
Race 2:
Two year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this $30K maiden claiming race. I’m siding with Mom’s Cheesecake (#8), making her third career start for Lacy Pierce. She paired her first two Beyers, including a 4th place finish in her last start at Churchill. Blinkers go on for the first time today. I see her as a candidate that could take a step forward, while being overlooked by the public here. Arditamente (#7) debuts for Philip Sims after running a few solid works over this course over the last several weeks. Her sire, Mendelssohn, is getting 13% winners with debuting runners in dirt sprints. The dam has produced a debut winner that went on to win a Minnesota bred stakes race. Tegwar (#5) makes her 4th career start while dropping in class today. She ran an interesting race in her debut at Fanduel Racing in the slop. She broke well and settled in behind the leaders. She was forced to take up sharply on the turn and was swung out way wide. She closed with interest to be third that day, posting a small Beyer, but overcoming a lot of adversity. She tried the turf at Ellis in her second start and was 4th with another trouble line. She came up empty in restricted maiden special weight race at Churchill last month, but I do believe that was an above field for that condition. This is significant class relief for her from her last start and she is a horse that is improving. 8-1 feels a little light, but I’d play her with this group.
Race 3:
This is another N1X, $50K starter allowance race, however this one is for three year olds and up going 1 3/16 miles over the main track. While the morning line favorite, Gilded Cracken (#1) is in good form right now, I’m not convinced that he’ll be finishing with a flourish at this added distance. On the other hand, you have a son of Curlin out of a Tiznow mare in Curlin’s Gesture (#6), who I think is going to be very tough in this race. She’s made four starts in 2024. He broke maiden with $100K maiden claimers at Churchill when going 7 ½ furlongs in May. She was making his first start in 10 months before that race. He struggled in N1X allowance company at Ellis when making his next start. Walsh dropped him into a $50K N2L claiming race there and he responded with a neck victory. He was claimed by Marianne Scherer, who brought him back at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill at this level. He lost by a neck in that race which was his first true, two-turn race. He’ll go a furlong longer than he ever has before, but his pedigree suggests that should not be an issue. After an embarrassing and well-documented error last Thursday, Machado rebounded with a two-win day on Saturday, including a picture perfect ride aboard 27-1 longshot Brunacini, in the Grade 3 Perryville Stakes. He’s one of my stronger opinions on the card. Gilded Cracken is likely a saver for me in this spot, but he’s not going to offer much value. One runner that could be a big number is Azoi (#3). He’s coming off a strong win at Presque Isle Downs, where he broke his maiden going nine furlongs. He runs for a high percentage trainer, who enlists Jose Ortiz to ride. His dirt form wasn’t terrible for the most part and the added distance may suit him better than most in here.
Race 4:
$32K claimers will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this race, which will start the Late Pick-5. The is a monstrous $301,895 carryover for this wager today, with post time for this race set for 2:36 PM (EDT). I’m on a pair of Oaklawn stalwarts in this race, making longshot, Huge Bigly (#7) my top pick. Aaron Shorter claimed him for $20K off Steve Asmussen and he had him buzzing over the winter at Oaklawn. He won all three of his races there with ease. He came back to Kentucky where he’s struggled in his last three starts. He ran a big race on this course last fall and Shorter shows some confidence moving up him in class after finishing 4th with $25K claimers last out. He might not want to lose him in advance of the Oaklawn meet, but I think we’re going to see a better effort from him in this spot. Strava (#5) is a bit of an all-or-nothing type of runner and he’s coming into this race off a pair of “nothing” races. He was trounced in the Knicks Go Overnight Stakes two back, where he was sent off at a respectable 8-1 figure. He came back at Saratoga and struggled in optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance company there. Those races are always deep at the Spa, so he’ll be getting significant class relief for this spot. He does have a win over this course as well. While this distance might be at the edge of his capabilities, he ran very well in the short-stretch mile races at Oaklawn last year. I do have to hedge slightly in the event that neither of these runners are able to rebound. While Show Time (#4) is moving to a lower percentage barn off the claim, I do like that he’s getting back to two turns, and I like that he’s doing it in the third race of his current form cycle. Tyler Gaffalione holds a narrow lead in the jockey standings, but Luis Saez and Jose Ortiz were able to capitalize when he was serving a two day suspension last week. He’s been aboard for his last two victories and he’ll take the assignment for his new connections.
Race 5:
The first turf race of the day is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares, going 1 1/16 miles. As there has been with many of the turf races at this meet, there is an overflow field of 16, but only as many as 12 will go to post. Birdwatching (#10) is going to draw the bulk of attention from the wagering public in this race. She debuted at Tampa in January and ran well to be second for Arnaud Delacour. She went to the sidelines and came back at the end of August at Kentucky Downs, where she finished second once again. She makes her second start off the layoff and certainly is a candidate to move forward. She’s going to be an A line play for me in this race, However, I think My Brazilian Girl (#4) is going to be a tough customer getting back on the turf. She ran in the Tepin Stakes in June, which was her first career start on the turf. She was racing at the back of the pack, but she finished with interest when facing a solid field in that race. She came back to run a game second when much closer to the lead at Ellis. Toss her last race, which was taken off the turf in stakes company at Laurel. She’s back with maidens today and getting Lasix for the first time. I think she can sit a cozy trip and potentially outrun the favorite. I probably prefer Streetwhereyoulive (#8) underneath, but her one turf race was significantly better than her three dirt starts. Her last try in July was taken off the turf and she’s been on the bench since then. I like that Sims is getting her back on the lawn and I do think we’ll see a better effort from her. Bundchen (#13) needs a defection to participate, but if she’s in, she is worth considering for Wesley Ward. This will be her first route and her first start in over a year. The outside post she’s drawn is no picnic either. She was a $700K purchase for a sharp barn, so she’s one to think about should be compete.
Race 6:
There’s two heavy hitters in this optional $125K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Intricate (#5) was the winner of the Grade 2 Golden Rod at Churchill last year after a strong maiden breaking win on this course. She’s been on a steady diet of graded stakes races since that effort, finishing third behind Thropedo Anna in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks and 5th in the Grade 1 Alabama in her most recent start. She runs with Lasix for the first time while dropping in class to face allowance foes for the first time in her career. In the stall next door will be Landed (#6), who is coming here riding a four race winning streak. She has wins in the Bouwerie and the Fleet Indian Stakes against New York breds. Her lone start against open company was a N1X allowance win here in the spring. Wesley Ward has been chilly at this meet, but he has had two winners in the last week, suggesting that his barn is starting to heat up. In terms of the Pick-5 carryover, both fillies are going to be on the bulk of my tickets, but I do an alternative to these runners that could upset the apple cart. Everland (#7) is the top pick, making her third straight start on the dirt. She won the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway in the spring, earning a ticket into the starting gate for the Kentucky Oaks. She was 5th in the slop that day, finishing 12 lengths behind Thorpedo Anna. She ran her next three starts in stakes races on the grass before running a solid race to narrowly miss in allowance company at Ellis. She ran 5th in the Cotillion last out at Parx, beaten by Thorpedo Anna once again. She left herself too much work to do on a track that was not easy to close on, in a race where the early pace wasn’t particularly strong. She doesn’t fit at that level, but I think if she can move forward slightly she can win this race. Her jockey, Luan Machado was 1 for his first 47 at this meet, but he’s now won with 4 of his last 11 mounts here.
Race 7:
The featured race is a $140K conditioned allowance race going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. There’s an awful lot of speed signed on for this race, so I’m looking for a horse that is going to be running on late. Mischievous Rogue (#6) feels like he has a good chance to be that horse. He has seven career wins in 22 starts, most recently winning a stakes race at Hawthorne going five furlongs two starts back. He struggled in his last start at Kentucky Downs, but a lot of runner struggled to gain ground from the back of the pack on that course. He has a win and a neck defeat in two starts on this course. Joel Rosario, who has been elsewhere during the bulk of the meet, is here to ride today and I see gelding as giving him the best chance to find the Winner’s Circle today. I was a big proponent of Mo Stash (#10) here in the spring and as a 5-2 single in his seasonal debut and he did not disappoint. Since clearing the N2X condition, he’s competed in four straight stakes races. He finished third in two of them and off the board in the other two. He pressed an aggressive pace at six furlongs at Kentucky Downs in his last start and he came up completely empty. It’s worth noting that his two off the board finishes came in races where he was chasing Cogburn in the early stages. Two of his three career wins came on this course, and his lone off the board finish here came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in 2022. Victoria Oliver has sent out a pair of longshot winners at this meet, both ridden by John Velasquez. It’s getting late into his four year old season, so I’m not sure if he’s going to improve much more. His best effort gets him very close with these, so 4-1 might be a tough light. He’s my primary backup in this field though.
Race 8:
When putting together this Pick-5 ticket, several of the legs look like they could be spread opportunities, so there are going to races where paring down might be necessary. There are four horses that look like they stand out to me in this spot, but I’m going to focus on two of them. While most of the tickets are going to be alive to Touchy (#4), I’m going to make my top pick the Christoper Davis first time starter, Mo Quality (#6). He’s been working out like a good thing in the morning over at Turfway, flashing a pair of bullet works at four and five furlongs this month. Mo Town gets 13% winners from his debuting runners in dirt sprints. Davis doesn’t have great numbers with first time starters, but his two year olds in 2024 have won two of seven starts in their debuts. Jose Ortiz has a good record when riding for Davis and he takes the call today. Touchy feels like the other one to key on in this spot, making his third career start for Wesley Ward. He debuted in the Tremont Stakes at Saratoga in June and ran a solid second place. His second start came in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special where he finished 4th, behind Showcase. He’ll make his third career start today and his first against maidens, which does feel like significant class relief. I think Ward has high regard for this son of Nyquist, and it feels like this horse is the reason Rosario is riding here today. I’ll use some combination of both Hitchcock (#8) and Original Sin (#10) as backups in this spot. Hitchcock ran pretty well to be third in his debut at Churchill. He was on the wrong lead for the better part of that last race, so there are things that he’ll need to work out for this start. I do think this is a tougher field than what he was up against at Churchill last out. Original Sin is a Brad Cox first timer with Florent Geroux in the irons. While Cox has had an excellent meet, a lot of his success has come in stakes company. The dam produced a debut winner at Remington in 2022, so there’s definitely a chance that this one will fire at first asking. I’m thinking he might be better in his next start at two turns though.
Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 10-20-24:
34/125 (27.2%), $312.10 – $2.50 ROI
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
