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Kentucky Downs has a great card for Sunday (Aug. 31), maybe to some bettors’ chagrin, loaded with maiden races on the grass. Maidens are my absolute favorite; for a while, they were the only races I bet. Of course there are also two intriguing million-dollar races late in the card for juveniles, but as a whole it seems ripe with opportunities.
My focus here is to try penning my thoughts and possible directions inside of these races, not just to tell you “Horsey A win Horsey B second”. I fully know most reading this will not use these horses verbatim, that’s the nature of the game. But I hope to provide insight that materializes into winning plays by you – even if my preferred horse loses! ‘Cause that’s just the kind of guy I am.
Also, for what it’s worth, I did not really assess the also eligibles in every race. They may be fine, they may not be fine. I’m focused on who probably will be in the race, so forgive me.
Let’s dive in:
Race 1 – $100,000 Maiden | 2YO Fillies | 1 Mile (Turf)
Two of the probable chalks appear legitimate factors here. #1 IMMINENT RISK showed great late energy after a sub-optimal start, which should set him up well for the stretch out to a mile. #7 CORBET’S CRUSH also holds merits just because her wide trip on debut over dirt likely could’ve caused her to finish evenly, and now she’s trying turf while drawing an ideal stall for this track. Of the two, I definitely prefer IMMINENT RISK.
I have my eye on three possible prices though. #5 FLORENTINE LADY might not come from a barn that does well first out, but she’s bred for the conditions and has great workouts over the synthetic at Turfway. I could definitely see her finishing on the ticket with the right journey.
#6 BROADWAY MUSICAL also has appeal because Beschizza gave her a real methodical ride on debut while she was climbing onto horses and wanting to roll. She didn’t finish with a great flourish, but I’m curious how much her temperament through a cumbersome trip impacted her energy late. She at least finished atop of the pack well beaten, so she could have the tenacity to do alright. This race being the second start of her career also gives her tremendous room to improve.
Lastly, #12 SHIDONI did a full 180 going from a dirt sprint to a turf route over at Lone Star. Her effort against weaker horses at least showed the type of fight I’d want out of a horse in this spot, but who knows what play she might take with Dettori at the reins.
Respect: #1 IMMINENT RISK, #7 CORBET’S CRUSH
Appealing Longshots: #6 BROADWAY MUSICAL, #5 FLORENTINE LADY, #12 SHIDONI
Race 2 – $170,000 Maiden | 3YO+ | 1-1/2 Miles (Turf)
I’ve learned these last few seasons to give a default nod to Saffie Joseph and Edgard Zayas when they land into spots like this. Joseph has done great these last few Kentucky Downs meets and he’s back with a live shot in #1 ABUELO. This horse has always had power at the end of his races, so I’m not too concerned about the stretch to a mile and a half – plus (no discredit meant by this) Zayas hopping into the saddle probably says this horse is ready for a big effort. His tendency to break slowly also doesn’t hamper him from this draw since he has the extra real estate to settle into rhythm.
The morning-line favorite here, #5 ORATOR, also does make sense but I don’t know that he screams a “win” candidate to me. He’s always in great spots, he always finishes well and he has the hot hands of Jose Ortiz grabbing leather, but these Shug horses with this type of form have always seemed like great keys underneath in exotics because they’re so consistent. The value of that, then, is trying to surround him with larger prices, otherwise it does feel like a chump play.
Brendan Walsh also has some possible contenders in this race, namely with #7 RULE SEVENTY SIX. Last meet’s leading rider Tyler Gaffalione is at the controls for the third start of this Nyquist colt’s career, and the colt is on an upward swing in his performances. He should take to going longer, but who knows what will come since Gaffalione will have to push the button sooner than in this colt’s previous races.
I also have a mark on Walsh’s other runner, #9 KICKING CLEAR, purely for the Ben Curtis angle. Tangent: when I really got serious about playing the horses around 2021-2022, I made the U.K. my prime stomping ground to learn the finer mechanics of horse racing. When it came to Yorkshire races, from the long straight at Newcastle to the sloping loop of Hamilton Park, Ben Curtis was a transformative rider. Sure that comes with finding adequate horsepower, but what I saw of him riding in the north over the pond has made his success stateside of little surprise to me. Anywho, the horse appears able to handle longer distances and, honestly, is probably more of an exotic type for me.
Live runners: #1 ABUELO, #7 RULE SEVENTY SIX
Exotic types: #5 ORATOR, #9 KICKING CLEAR
Race 3 – $200,000 OC$80,000N2X | 3YO+ | 1 Mile (Turf)
I happened into this detail on #4 QUATROCENTO because I was watching opening day to get a feel for the track’s rhythm; did you know tracks can have rhythms? They do, like the pulse of one’s heart or the bass guitar of a groovy vamp, but I’ll save these thoughts more for my handicapping book nobody actually wants. Quatrocento SCRATCHED out of a stakes race TO race in this second-level allowance (presumably, he could still scratch). Join this with the horse having terrific figures, he seems like a round peg slotting into a round hole.
And I hate that I don’t really have anything transformative to offer additionally on this race, so I won’t.
Favorite I’m submitting to because I am a sad pathetic loser: #4 QUATROCENTO
Other horses I didn’t care to talk about because the board will tell you they make sense: #9 SPIRIT PRINCE, #10 UNLOAD, #11 DEGREE OF RISK
Race 4 – $170,000 Maiden | F&M 3YO+ | 7 Furlongs (Turf)
Okay, I feel more comfortable now that we’re back in maiden competition. Could you tell I was out of the water up there? Probably not, but that’s fine.
I want to start talking about #9 JUST JULES. What’s she doing here? She has one race over the grass, cutting an unbearably steady NYRA turf tempo, loses that race and then hits the shelf for over a year? Now I can’t say under similar circumstances I, as a horse, would not do something similar, but this $1-million yearling has to have something to pop into this spot? Right? Any bet on her is a pure guess in my estimation.
And advance apologies to Mike Maker (I’m sure he’ll understand), but I want to play against #1 ONE FRONT WAR. She’s an 0-for type with inconsistent dates coming in off a good finish from an opportune setup. At a short price, pass.
I LOVE horses like #3 MERRY MADISON. The lack of gate speed is a concern, but this form cycle screams ready for something:
· Start 1 – bad break, falls out of rhythm, grabs an okay finish
· Start 2 – stretches out, changes distance, bad break, no fault assigned
· Start 3 – cuts back, breaks better, actually has a chance to show something
What’s great about these types is that most bettors scoff at these horses. In two starts, she seems like she’s nothing but that sprint outing shows that she just needs an opportunity to race. If she does go off at double-digit odds, she’s an absolute use.
Jose Ortiz probably also has a chance in this race if he can get #5 PRETTY TAPIT to break better. She’s trending in a positive direction, but a stout closer probably does not win this race. And speaking of stout closers, I’m curious how Vicky Oliver’s filly, #11 TICKIN TIME BLONDE, factors into the mix. The horse can finish well, but is probably best as an underneath use.
I have no clue about: #9 JUST JULES
Chalk I’m playing against: #1 ONE FRONT WAR
Love, Love, LOVE: #3 MERRY MADISON
Also live: #5 PRETTY TAPIT
Race 5 – $190,000 Allowance N1X | 3YO+ | 1-5/16 Miles (Turf)
Now is a good time for me to expand on why I love maiden races so much – because classes like these first and second level allowances tend to have great disparities between the horses that factor and the horses that do not factor. Meanwhile maidens, by virtue of trying for the first win of their career, are often inexperienced types which lends a better edge to those watching the qualitative and offering the appropriate allowance (no pun intended) for improvements or regression. The uncertainties in maidens makes them just terrific betting races.
I say this because I again do not have anything in this race the board cannot tell you. I wish I could tell you I like 10-1 morning lines like #2 KULAPAT or 30-1 shots like #4 BOY BOY, and I could. I could lie like that, but those are the kinds of lies that would haunt me in my dreams like the thought of missing my flight (my actual dream from last night).
I can at least add this anecdote: I was surprised to see so many Jack Fisher runners at these longer distance races. Not because of the distances, but because these are flat races. I’ve had the pleasure of calling American steeplechase races over the last few years, and Fisher is among the top names competing under rules. His horses will get these longer distances no question, and given that jumps racing doesn’t pick up until wetter conditions in the fall I guess it makes sense for him to try for these six-figure pots. That’s some background on him, for what it’s worth.
Horses that make sense that you probably already knew: #1 SALTED CARMEL, #3 TRACKING ERROR, #9 SMART UNCLE
Horse that’s probably my top call but I’m doubtful of the morning line signaling value: #10 WARLANDER
Race 6 – $170,000 Maiden | 2YO | 1 Mile (Turf)
By this time in the card, I may have to write like Bart Simpson does in detention “I WILL NOT ASSUME JOSE ORTIZ WINS EVERY RACE. I WILL NOT ASSUME JOSE ORTIZ WINS EVERY RACE. I WILL NOT—” etc.
But he’s riding a Graham Motion horse, #4 LEVERAGE, that also shows the exact type of fight I want in a spot like this. He debuts going two turns unhurried, focuses on finishing well and bursts with a flourish to just miss victory. Now he gets to go from a $45,000 maiden into a $170,000 prize; he seems primed for a big effort to me. We also see form cycles like this a lot inside of harness racing, so go figure the truth in the adage that turf racing is akin to harness racing.
I am also a fan of the strategy on #10 KHETAM. I call it the “who knows, let’s try it” angle. Bye-bye to the blinkers, bye-bye to stalliondom, this fresh gelding has room to show upside in his second start after a first start where he never got a chance to show anything. Bonus points too for James Graham sticking with the ride.
Morning-line chalk #3 RISK also makes sense inside of this spot. He showed he can break well in his second start, his first for trainer Nolan Ramsey, and he seemed to just be even as a result of a wide trip. I also don’t know when he was gelded, part of me thinks it must’ve happened when he switched out of Jose D’Angelo’s barn, but either way I will use this as a soap box moment to ask “Why can’t we mark first time geldings on a program line?” I can buy Chinese vapes off of the Internet and that doesn’t feel right. Seeing first time geldings would at least feel right.
Love, Love, LOVE: #4 LEVERAGE
Who knows, let’s try it: #10 KHETAM
Respect to: #3 RISK
Race 7 – OC$100,000N3X | 3YO+ | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
So it seems like all of the best horses in this race (#3 DHABAB, #8 RUN CURTIS RUN et al.) come from off the speed. Sometimes, they come from well off the speed. And it’s usually good speed, but will this race have that good speed?
Merits, then, go to #5 THAT’S RIGHT who does have speed and also takes off the blinkers after a race where he checked as the favorite and fell out of rhythm late. Curtis will just go to the front with this guy, who admittedly does come back to the field often, but let’s see how far his speed could go since everyone else’s hand seems clear. I should also note here that this guy could be a pacemaker for the other Sharp horse #11 LET MY PEOPLE GO, who does tend to race better with a target. But again, how many races could Jose Ortiz win in a day?
(LATE NOTE: I had a whole blurb written here on #7 AXTHELM, but I saw he drew in to run on Saturday so… I don’t think he’s racing in this spot).
Maybe he runs away with it: #5 THAT’S RIGHT
Maybe they have the speed to chase: #8 RUN CURTIS RUN, #3 DHABAB, #11 LET MY PEOPLE GO
Horse I wanted to use but scratched under my nose: #7 AXTHELM
Race 8 – $170,000 Maiden | 2YO Fillies | 7 Furlongs (Turf)
Maker could win this one with #2 BEACH BALLAD. Okay? Whatever. Brian Lynch could also win with #9 LOVE A LITTLE MO. Both of those chalks make sense, but they’re chalks in a race that has a lot more interesting underpinnings.
Now I can finally start offering some interesting 20-1, 30-1 shots – because we’re back in maiden company!
I first want to note that #3 MI DIAMANTE can be a sneaky improver. She did not break well on debut and the fractions she chased were incredibly steep, giving her solid reason to finish well beaten in fourth. She was an expensive yearling, she gets an alright draw; if she’s 50-1 and hits the trifecta would you really complain?
#4 TOGETHER AGAIN ran a great race on debut, likely tiring because of being wide through fast fractions early. She then had an unideal trip going two turns in her second start so I want to give her an opportunity to make amends on the cutback, especially at a big price.
#8 MOKUREN stalked a steady tempo and kept fighting to a second-place finish in her debut. I don’t think you could ask for much more (aside from a win), plus she took a lot of money in that debut. She figures.
And I do have to side with the man in the quarter-gallon hat here, one PTF himself, on #12 GREAT KERRY LEE. She raced well in her debut in a race taken off the turf and over a sloppy track. All that form should transpose to the turf and the price should hopefully be right.
Horses that figure but make me yawn: #2 BEACH BALLAD, #9 LOVE A LITTLE MO
Prices that get me going: #4 TOGETHER AGAIN, #8 MOKUREN, #12 GREAT KERRY LEE, #3 MI DIAMANTE
Race 9 – $1,000,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Sprint Stakes | 2YO | 6-1/2 Furlongs
These races annoy me. Let me stress, it’s the potential formation of the race that annoys me, as a handicapper, not the race itself. I LOVE million-dollar races. I’d love to race in one right now, no horse needed. I’ll slot into the starting gate and unleash my middle-school track form that could run a mile in 5 minutes 30 seconds just to hope at a fifth-place check which still amounts to nearly my entire annual salary (yes, it IS that low!).
Every horse that seems to figure in this race has speed. But even if you are a novice handicapper reading this (thank you for getting this far by the way, hopefully it’s been enjoyable), you know that not EVERY horse can have the lead. No ifs or buts are candy or nuts, so not every day is Christmas. Or something like that.
I am venturing a guess, and this is admittedly a sturdy branch to perch on, that #7 LONGSHOREMAN is the best of the speed. Yes it’s a Wesley Ward runner. Yes he’s the king of turf sprints. Do you get why this is such a lofty conclusion to reach? He at least holds more qualitative appeals than others do to the way he won his last race. You can look at other speeds in here like #1 ZEUS’S ECHO, #2 JOHNNY’S RED STORM, #5 TWILIGHT DELIGHT and so forth and they all show one glaring flaw with all of their wins: they were the inside speed. More often than not, a speed horse in rhythm and at the inside holds all of the cards. A certain amount of extra power is needed to overhaul these kinds who are essentially just galivanting on their own accord. When push comes to shove now that there’s a million bucks up for grabs, who knows how truly deep the well is on any of these.
So LONGSHOREMAN is probably the best shot here. I will mention that #8 OBLITERATION could be the best horse just off of figures alone, but the clear bounce in the Saratoga Special does raise concerns in this spot on whether his blowout performance in the Sanford is a one-off type thing. He still raced well in the Saratoga Special, getting carried to the center of the track by a horse in rhythm that he just could not overpower. I am curious, too, how the surface switch works for him. But he’ll take money, and how many races can Jose Ortiz really win in a day?
Additional note: George Weaver picks up #6 AZIZAM from Karl Burke. I have not been as attentive to UK racing this last year, but a few years back there was no trainer – I’m telling you, none – that could beat Karl Burke in sprints. His barn just fired on such cylinders that I remember in 2022 he had a horse named Dramatised drop into the box for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Before the race even drew, I was all in on this horse. Come race day, I had maybe $3,000-$5,000 in live payoffs on Dramatised, who picked up Ryan Moore, and the horse works a brilliant trip and races his eyeballs out to just get collared by the Godolphin runner Mischief Magic. My doctor says my heart has not been the same since that day.
Anecdote summarized: Karl Burke is a great sprint trainer. I don’t know that his barn has been as robust these last few years, but I am not really gravitating towards this runner that had an empty tank at Glorious Goodwood following a third-place finish in a handicap at Royal Ascot.
In Wesley Ward we trust: #7 LONGSHOREMAN
Great figures, still question marks: #8 OBLITERATION
Speeds who could have more in reserve: #2 JOHNNY’S RED STORM
I had to vent about a bad beat because this horse that I’m not using reminded me of it: #6 AZIZAM
Race 10 – $500,000 Handicap | 3YO+ | 1 Mile (Turf)
Everyone and their grandparents are going to run to #7 CHASING THE CROWN here. He’s got back class, great figures and the seemingly ever-potent pairing of Tyler Gaffalione and Mike Maker. But does a purely deep closer in a handicap race really have enough oomph to swoop over this field? I only say maybe.
First things first, pace seems guaranteed since #2 PRINCE OF POWER has no other way to go. I do wonder how far his speed can go considering he’s in career form now and has a weight benefit at 117 pounds, though he has not faced much stock in his last two starts.
I wonder how a horse like #5 NOISES OFF settles into this race? In the event the pace is honest, he seems poised to sit in the middle of the pack, which tends to be his preferred spot when he finds the winner’s circle. Maybe he’s a price that can get first jump as the others turn through the gears?
#6 SHERLOCK’S JEWEL is another who maybe can sit in a stalking spot. He can offer a good punch with the right trip, and he has not had the right trip in his last two starts. Hopefully that form coming in here can help his price go higher.
#11 MOUNTAIN BEAR should also improve after being gelded. He’s got terrific ability and seems like a great fit for this track while also getting a weight benefit at 116 pounds. We’ll just see if temperament was his main obstacle after that fractious race last out.
#4 LORENZ is another who should factor, but his chances really hinge on the amount of early speed Zayas can unfurl from him. There’s a chance he’s running alongside CHASE THE CROWN, which does not really do him any good.
He probably wins this, but I don’t want to settle: #7 CHASING THE CROWN
Clear speed, but speedy enough to be clear?: #2 PRINCE OF POWER
Stalkers or closers that also factor: #4 LORENZ, #5 NOISES OFF, #6 SHERLOCK’S JEWEL, #11 MOUNTAIN BEAR
Race 11 – Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies Stakes | 2YO Fillies | 1 Mile (Turf)
The key to this race surrounds what kind of horse Joe Sharp has here in #9 OSCAR’S ENCORE. She did nothing wrong on debut, I may even argue she did everything right on debut. She showed the exact type of horse she’d need to be to win a race like this, but that also means that she’s earned the respect of people’s hard-earned wagering dollars because they also want to believe. And sometimes in this here gambling game, those beliefs are dangerous to humor. Because we are looking at 2-year-olds here. Three years ago, these horses would not even know how to move their legs, let alone have any legs to move at all!
Earlier in this card, I agreed with the hat man and now I have to agree with the head of hair. JK has #2 TO A FLAME as one of his plays of the day in this race (he’s also on #6 MERINGUE who can certainly take his money, but she won’t take mine) and I agree with the angles here. I don’t see any reason why she shouldn’t handle the turf off a terrific maiden win on “good” dirt at Ellis. The filly has every chance to breakthrough in a spot like this.
I also have my eye on a Maker horse in #8 BACK RING BUZZ. She debuted great, ran well at second asking and now swaps out of the Carlos David barn into this spot for a million-dollar try. I like the confidence coinciding with the positive trajectory in her form and she also appears handy enough to work into a prime stalking spot for Ben Curtis, where if she does have any muscle to show she’ll hopefully do so at alright odds.
Sharp’s Sharpie: #9 OSCAR’S ENCORE
Live alternatives: #2 TO A FLAME, #8 BACK RING BUZZ
