Another season at Kentucky Downs kicks off during a busy time in the racing calendar with Saratoga and Del Mar still in full-swing. Get ready to hear the word “undulating” more times in the next two weeks than you do all year. Initially, I wasn’t going to handle write-ups for this meet as the Colonial Downs calendar has yet to conclude. However, after reviewing the performance from last year and making a deal with PTF to cover a couple cards while I’m traveling, I’m ready to take on the challenge.
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Selections
- Race 1: 4-11-1-5
- Race 2: 2-3-6-12
- Race 3: 7-1-5-2
- Race 4: 2-7-8-6
- Race 5: 7-5-4-8
- Race 6: 7-9-4-6
- Race 7: 12-1-2-8
- Race 8: 9-4-6-2
- Race 9: 1-6-10-7
- Race 10: 14-7-9-13
- Race 11: 4-10-2-9
Kentucky Downs Race 2: Petronella (#2) at 9-2 or higher
I can see the case for Sharp Mindset (#6) as the most likely winner of this juvenile maiden race as she exits a Saratoga event that was won by Snow Face Princess who went on to win the Bolton Landing in her next start. She has a right to improve second-time out, but weakened going 5.5f and now has to handle more ground this afternoon. Another one worth including is Chrysalism (#3) who is bred to handle this surface out of Pachattach winner of over 750 mostly on turf and synthetic. She’s also by Liam’s Map, a 15% turf sire, and was wide around the track in her only start over the grass. However, I landed on a first-time starter as the top pick with Petronella (#2). This chestnut filly is out of Moral Reasoning who won on turf as a juvenile and the Not This Time’s can do anything. Juvenile debut runners on grass are one of the Brendan Walsh barn’s strongest moves with a record of 18/112 (16%, $2.39 ROI) including 4/22 (18%, $3.54 ROI) at Kentucky Downs.
Kentucky Downs Race 8: Sapphire Beach (#9) at 6-1 or higher
Only at Kentucky Downs will you find an allowance for 2YO’s with a purse of $250k and that’s what we have here. Mackinac (#6) is likely to go favored in this spot coming out of the same Snow Face Princess race that I mentioned above. She looks like she can handle the added ground here and is likely to move forward as Rusty Arnold is not a trainer who usually has them cranked up on debut. Sassy C W (#4) is intriguing getting to the grass for the first time as she displayed an abundance of early speed in her three career wins. She can certainly win here, but there’s too little turf pedigree for me to land on her at a short price with other speed. I landed on the “other” Rusty Arnold trainee in this spot and made Sapphire Beach (Ire) (#9) the top pick. While this is a filly that’s never crossed the wire first in her career, she’s run well in both lifetime starts despite them not being on what I consider her preferred surface. She’ll likely appreciate this switch to grass out of a Galileo mare that’s produced four turf winners. The Arnold barn has excellent numbers with first turf runners and I find it intriguing Saez lands here despite riding Mackinac in her debut.
Kentucky Downs Race 9: Bundchen (#1) at 9-2 or higher and/or Mechaya (#6) at 7-2 or higher
An argument could be made that Scattitude (#10) is the horse to bear in this spot after narrowly missing in an allowance event at Ellis last out. She’s proven proficient at a variety of distances in her career so I don’t mind the cutback to 6.5f. I prefer her to the other short price on the line Bunratty Manor (Ire) (#7) who will have to be ready for a grueling test off the bench. I nearly made Mechaya (#6) the top pick and will still recommend betting her to win if she goes off fair odd. I was taken with her debut over the course and distance last summer burying the field on the lead. She’s had some troubled trips to say the least in her four subsequent starts since and I can see her appreciating the return to these confines. Ultimately, I sided with Bundchen (#1) as the top pick figuring she’ll be the better price. I like that she’s drawn the rail and has speed as the turn comes up pretty quick in these 6.5f races. Joel Rosario is arguably the best turf sprint rider on the planet so I trust him to get her a decent trip. Her only race over the course might look disappointing but she was forced to race wide on a day where it was advantageous to be inside.
Kentucky Downs Race 11: Montador (#4) at 5-1 or higher
This nightcap features a formidable favorite with Swirling Eights (#2) set to go off the public’s choice. He’s drawn well and has races good enough to win here, but I hesitate taking too short of a price on an 0/6 runner. Another intriguing runner would be Eleven Bravo (#10) as Saffie Joseph’s runners have run pretty well over this course the last few years, but he’s also coming off a few consecutive runner-up finishes. My top pick, Montador (#4), actually crossed the wire first in his last start, but was subsequently disqualified for interference. That may turn out to be a blessing for his connections as now he remains eligible for this $170k maiden event. I was dubious of his chances at Colonial last out as I figured he’d want more distance being out of Lady Montdore, winner of the 11f Glens Falls in her career. I take it as a positive sign this colt was able to cross first in the 5.5f race and project him improving immensely second time on the turf with this journey being over a route of ground.
#TheCheatSheet
2024 Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 76-13-13-6 (17%, $1.87); Featured Horses: 24-5-3-5 (22%, $3.69)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 46-4-6-4 (9%, $1.87); Featured Horses: 19-3-2-4 (16%, $3.99)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 46%; B’s: 21%; C’s: 26%; X’s: 7%
