Day 2 of 7
What’s Happening
Day two of the 2025 Kentucky Downs meet is an absolute doozy. Twelve races, five stakes – four of which are graded – and no less than $11,740,000 in available purses are up for grabs. Strap yourselves in!
The Euro Invasion
As is now typically the case on this monster day, several European raiders have been lured by the astronomical purses, one being German invader FLATTEN THE CURVE. He recently returned to Germany following his attempt in the off-the-turf Belmont Gold Cup and scored comfortably in the Listed Langer Hamburger Stakes last month, entitling him to favoritism in the $1 million G3 Bowling Green Gold Cup Invitational Stakes (2 1/16m, R7). He’ll attempt to down last year’s winner LIMITED LIABILITY (2-1 ML), who romped by 8¼ lengths twelve months ago.
After AG BULLET then attempts back-to-back wins at a short price in the $2 million G3 Ladies’ Turf Sprint Stakes (R8), where she looks formidable following her recent 2-length victory over the boys in the G1 Jaipur Stakes at Saratoga, Charlie Hill’s KHAADEM will try to go one better than he did twelve months ago in the $2 million G2 Turf Sprint Stakes (R9), a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series: ‘Win and You’re In’ event. His preparation this year has been sharper, and even at age nine, he has a winning chance. However, the returning HOWARD WOLOWITZ, who won the G1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes over this course and distance last year, former Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner NOBALS, and several other high-quality sprinters, won’t make his life easy.
Following that, Newmarket-based trainer James Owen will hope gate twelve poses no issues for WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE, who brings elite European form into the $3.5 million G1 Nashville Derby (R10). He recently ran fourth at Royal Ascot, finished second to subsequent G1 Sword Dancer Stakes winner EL CORBODES in the G2 Princess of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket, and then ran second again – by just a nose – to the hugely exciting MERCHANT at Glorious Goodwood last time. In many ways, he’s the horse to beat; however, this field is deep, with horses like G1 winner TEST SCORE drawn in gate two and no fewer than four Kentucky Derby starters in opposition. Those include G1 Arkansas Derby winner SANDMAN and G1 Blue Grass Stakes winner BURNHAM SQUARE, who’ll both making their turf debuts. This race will test anyone’s handicapping prowess.
And finally, Hugo Palmer’s progressive CHESHIRE DANCER and German raider LADY IZLE are likely to figure prominently in the betting for the $2 million G2 Ladies’ Turf Stakes (R11), following solid efforts in graded stakes at Ascot and Newmarket, respectively. Whether they can challenge the 7-2 morning-line favorite SPECIAL WAN, who exits a third-place finish in the G1 Just a Game Stakes, or recent G2 Beverly D. Stakes winner CHARLENE’S DREAM, we’ll wait and see. But one thing is for sure: they’ll only add to what promises to be a stellar afternoon of racing that also includes five $170k MSWs and two stakes quality allowances.
What’s Happened
Somewhat surprisingly, day one of the Kentucky Downs meet was a little chalky. In fact, it was very chalky, with seven of the eleven races being won by the post-time favorite and the largest winning payoff a mere $8.38. Ooft!
That aside, the day belonged to Jose Ortiz, who won four races on the card, including with LAGYNOS in the featured Tapit Stakes. Ortiz, likely unfazed by missing a Saratoga riding title after netting $685k in purses on day one, finished the day with four winners, one second, and one third from eight rides, taking a clear lead in the rider standings over Tyler Gaffalione and Joel Rosario, who each had one winner and six in-the-money finishes from ten rides. Needless to say, these three jockeys should have continued success throughout the meet. On Thursday, I noted that Frankie Dettori, despite a quiet two months, could too be a rider to follow this meet, based on his strong record in Nashville last year. And, lo and behold, he struck on opening day in the seventh with Graham Motion’s TURF STAR, improving his Kentucky Downs record to 9-for-46 (20%) since the start of last year’s meet, the second-highest strike rate among riders with more than five wins. Keep a close eye on his mounts going forward.
Among trainers, Brad Cox and Joe Sharp each notched two winners on opening day to share top spot in the trainer standings after day one, setting themselves well for the rest of the meet. Unsurprisingly, Wesley Ward also landed a 2-year-old MSW with SHOULD’VE in the second, boosting his five-year record with juveniles sprinting in Nashville to 9-for-34 (26%), with a $2.36 ROI. Michael Stidham also strengthened his impressive record with routers at the track by sending out MONTADOR – one of Thursday’s ‘Horses to Follow’ – to win the nightcap, a 1-mile MSW. Stidham’s five-year record in route races at Kentucky Downs now stands at 6-for-16 (38%) with a $3.84 ROI, which is certainly a stat worth noting. On the flip side, Mike Maker’s Kentucky Downs struggles continued, going 0-for-4 on the day. Sure, he only sent out four runners, but they all took money, including SWIRLING EIGHTS, who finished fourth as the 1.48/1 favorite in the nightcap. Maker’s record at the track is now 0-for-48 since the start of last year’s meet.
As for the track, it played much fairer than expected based on Thursday’s blog, where we unpicked trends and biases from last year. A variety of running styles and draw positions succeeded on day one. Here’s the data:
Sprints (6F, 6½F, 7F): 5 races
– Winner’s Draw: 12, 2, 5, 5, 10
– Winner’s Position at First Call: 1, 2, 2, 7, 4
– Beaten Lengths at First Call: 0, 0.5, 0.5, 7.5, 3
One-Turn Routes (1M, 1M 70Y): 4 races
– Winner’s Draw: 6, 11, 9, 4
– Winner’s Position at First Call: 2, 7, 4, 5
– Beaten Lengths at First Call: 0, 3.5, 0.75, 2.75
Two-Turn Routes (1 5/16M, 1½M, 2 1/16M): 2 races
– Winner’s Draw: 6, 7
– Winner’s Position at First Call: 1, 7
– Beaten Lengths at First Call: 0, 4.5
The track was generally fair, but two trends stand out: ten of the eleven winners were drawn in gate 4 or higher, and no winner broke from the rail. That second point may seem minor with only eleven races run, but is does mean that post one is now 0-for-25 in sprint races when the rails have been out since the start of last year’s meet, and just 1-for-38 overall. That’s too feels as if it’s worth noting.
Horses To Follow
Race 9: #6 KHAADEM (4/1 ML)
British raider KHADEEM finished second in last year’s running of the G2 Turf Sprint Stakes and, now a 9-year-old veteran, looks to have a big chance of going one better. Twelve months ago, the Charlie Hills trained son of DARK ANGEL arrived off two lackluster runs – beaten a combined 22 lengths in the G1 July Cup (10th of 11) and G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest (10th of 15) – yet the trip to Nashville brought him back to his best, as he rallied powerfully from near last into blue colored Timeform US fractions to finish second behind the formidable COGBURN. This season, his prep runs have been markedly stronger than last year’s, producing Racing Post Ratings of 98 in both the G3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury and G2 King George Stakes at Goodwood – a clear step up from the 88 and 86 he earned leading into the 2024 Turf Sprint. The form of his latest effort at Goodwood in particular, where he displayed rare early speed and set the early pace before fading to finish 5½ lengths back, holds up exceptionally well, with the seventh, fourth, and sixth-place finishers – barely a couple of lengths ahead of KHADEEM at the wire – returning to run 1-3-4 in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York last week. Despite now growing long in the tooth, it appears he’s in better form than he was at this time last year, and with Kentucky Downs’ undulating, European-style turf course clearly suiting his stamina and late kick, plus abundance of speed signed on in Saturday’s race to set things up ideally for his closing style, there’s plenty to like about his chances at morning-line odds of 4/1.
Race 10: #6 SIMULATE (10/1 ML)
Trainer Bill Mott, who won the $3.5 million G3 Nashville Derby with CLOSING BELL in 2015 and MOON OVER MIAMI in 2020, knows the type of horse required to win this race, making SIMULATE worth a look at morning-line odds of 10/1. This 3-year-old son of KITTEN’S JOY, whose dam is a half-sister to Mott’s G1 winner LEA, lacks the experience of some rivals but has been upwardly progressive as a 3-year-old and doesn’t look short of talent. He dominated a Saratoga allowance two starts back (86 Beyer) and then finished a strong second in the G2 Secretariat Stakes last time – his first stakes attempt. That run was even better than it appears on paper, as he overcame the slow pace and strong inside speed track bias to rally from near last, 4-5 wide, and finish just behind the rail-skimming winner GIOCOSO, who himself had finished just behind TEST SCORE the time prior. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to suggest SIMULATE was actually best in the Secretariat, and with only five starts underneath him, plus Saturday’s extra ground working in his favor, there’s reason to believe he has another step forward in him. He should receive a good set up tracking the speed from gate six and assuming that his 10/1 mornings-line odds hold up, he’s at the very least worthy of respect for a trainer who’s exceptional at placing his horses.
Race 11: #2 SPECIAL WAN (7/2 ML)
Although a pair of classy European invaders add an element of intrigue to a deep renewal of the G3 Ladies’ Turf Stakes, SPECIAL WAN stands out as the horse to beat. This 5-year-old daughter of FAST JAZZ, a graded stakes-placed performer in Ireland, was heavily backed at 6/5 in her American debut over this course and distance last year, winning with authority and showing a clear affinity for Kentucky Downs. Now under Brendan Walsh’s care, she’s been relentlessly progressive, posting Beyer speed figures of 92, 94, and 96 across three starts, including a victory in the G3 Honey Fox Stakes at Gulfstream and a tenacious third in the G1 Just A Game Stakes last out. The form of that race has been strongly validated, with runner-up EXCELLENT TRUTH, just a length ahead of SPECIAL WAN at the line, returning to win the G1 Diana next out, and the fifth and sixth finishers – including the re-opposing SEGESTA – also scoring in subsequent stakes. That’s just about the strongest recent form on offer, and as she now returns to a course and distance where she excelled last year, with a perfect draw in gate two, she looks a favorite to keep onside in the late sequences. Note: since the start of last year’s meet, gates 1-6 have produced 16/18 winners of one turn routes when the rails are out.
