Kentucky Downs Daily – Saturday, September 06, 2025

Day 5 of 7

What’s Happening

Excited, astonished, daunted – those are the emotions handicappers may feel cracking open the PPs for Saturday’s Kentucky Downs card. Excited for the money-making potential and the electric vibe of the day, astonished at the blockbuster card and massive purses, and daunted by what might be one of the toughest handicapping puzzles in recent memory. This isn’t for the faint of heart! No less than 177 horses entered for Mint Millions Day, the pinnacle of the Kentucky Downs meet that boasts six stakes races – five graded – and purses topping $14 million, making it North America’s second-richest race day behind Breeders’ Cup Saturday. It’s also the final round of the King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge, where cash prizes, tournament seats, and the National Turf Handicapping Champion title are up for grabs. Good luck!

The Features

A head-scratching early Pick 5 that includes two oversubscribed MSWs and three top-tier allowances sets the stage for the stakes action that ignites with the $2 million Ladies Marathon Invitational Stakes (G2) at 1 5/16 miles. Morning-line favorite SPANISH EYES, fresh off a runner-up finish in the Beverly D. Stakes (G2), seeks her first U.S. win in this spot and is deserving of favoritism. However, she only has one lone maiden victory to her name and faces stiff competition from talented fillies like BEACH BOMB, recent course winner MIWA, and NO MO CANDY, who scratched from Thursday’s One Dreamer Stakes to run here.

Next, the $2.5 million Mint Millions Invitational Stakes (G3) at 1 mile features LAGYNOS as the tepid morning-line favorite, aiming for his second meet win after taking the Tapit Stakes on opening day. We’ve seen horses complete stakes doubles at this meet before – think GOLIAD last year – but another outside post and a stacked field lined up against him make this no gimme. GOLIAD himself, MAJOR DUDE, and BRILLIANT BERTI are among the domestic threats, while European invaders CAIRO and POINT LYNAS add further depth.

The 1-mile Gun Runner Stakes (G3) follows, with German shipper NAMARON, now under John Sadler, topping the morning line at 4-1. A Grade 3 win in his homeland followed by a series of eye-catching Del Mar works and the booking of Flavien Prat certainly entitle him to the upmost respect, and he may be the goods. But the rail draw and another strong group of rivals, including recent Secretariat Stakes (G2) winner GIACOSO, G1 winner NEW CENTURY (blinkers on), and multiple stakes winner ROLANDO (turf debut), will force him to bring his A-game off the layoff, and won’t make his life easy. Expect a hot pace in this affair.

Recent Test Stakes (G1) winner KILWIN then switches back to turf for the $2 million Music City Stakes (G2) at 6 1/2 furlongs, revisiting the course that hosted her ‘coming out party’ last year when she overcame a track bias to win the $1 million Untapable Stakes. She’ll likely duel for favoritism with familiar rival SHISOSPICY, but Ralph Beckett’s TABITI, fresh off a win in the Oak Tree Stakes (G3) at Glorious Goodwood, could be the horse to side with under Frankie Dettori.

Following that, the meet’s lone G1, the Franklin-Simpson Stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs, showcases Bill Mott’s SPICED UP, the 7-2 morning-line favorite, who aims to cement his status atop the 3-year-old turf sprint division by again topping GOVERNOR SAM, who he upset at 2-5 in the Mahony Stakes (G3) last time.

The stakes action then wraps with the wide-open $2.5 million Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational Stakes (G2) at 1 1/2 miles – a Breeders’ Cup ‘Win and You’re In’ event for the Turf. Recent Arlington Million Stakes (G1) winner FORT WASHINGTON faces last year’s victor GRAND SONATA, plus top turf routers like MERCANTE and UTAH BEACH. A marathon race to cap a stakes marathon – how fitting.

What’s Happened

Thursday’s card at Kentucky Downs delivered a balanced mix of longshots and favorites, offering bettors a challenging but not insurmountable day. The highlight was the $500,000 One Dreamer Stakes, where the in-form mare PHAROAH’S WINE powered to her second victory at the track, handing both trainer Dale Romans and jockey Corey Lanerie their first wins of the meet.

While PHAROAH’S WINE was the star equine performer on the day, trainer Kenny McPeek was the day’s standout trainer, sending out two winners and a third from just three starters. Those successes vaulted McPeek into a tie for third in the trainer standings. Brendan Walsh also found his groove with a much-needed pair of victories after a sluggish 1-for-15 start to the meet, while Mike Maker added another win to his tally, boosting his ROI to an impressive $3.22 and joining Walsh, Wesley Ward, Joe Sharp, and ‘Rusty’ Arnold in a five-way tie atop the trainer leaderboard.

Kelsey Danner also deserves a big shoutout for her knack with big-priced debutants, as REPENTLESS stormed home at $52.08 in Thursday’s opener, echoing the footsteps of her barnmate GROUND SUPPORT, the $203.20 shocker in race two on Saturday. Danner’s runners are clearly worth watching closely over the meet’s final days. Meanwhile, Mark Casse finally broke through, snapping a 35-race losing streak at Kentucky Downs that stretched back to the start of last year’s meet. While Casse must be relieved to end the drought, bettors should note his barn went 0-for-24 at last year’s meet and is now just 1-for-38 over the past two years – way adrift of what’s come to be expected of this leading stable. With 10 horses entered today, including a couple of live contenders like CORRUPTION and the nightcap favorite ORBIT, it might be worth considering a fade on the Casse stable.

Here’s how the standings look:

After racking up five winners last weekend, Frankie Dettori drew a blank on Thursday, allowing Jose Ortiz to draw level at the top of the jockey leaderboard as he registered his sixth winner of the meet aboard UNMERITED FAVOR in the second. Meanwhile, Flavien Prat broke through with his first win of the meet, piloting SARDIS ($35.94) to an upset in the third, then quickly doubled up with IMAGINATIONTHELADY ($8.60) in the fifth, boosting his five-year ROI at Kentucky Downs to an impressive $2.56. Also recording two wins on Thursday (plus two seconds and a third from eight mounts) was Irad Ortiz, who reinforced the fact that he’s as good as anyone around this quirky track. John Velazquez, however, struggled, going 0-for-4 in his first day at the meet. That drops his two-year record at Kentucky Downs to a grim 1-for-34 (3%) and his five-year tally to an equally poor 3-for-92 (3%). With five rides booked today, it’s worth repeating what I noted in last Thursday’s Opening Day blog: “Be cautious with John Velazquez… Whether it’s the quirky track or just bad luck, his mounts consistently underperform here.”

Here’s how the standings look:

Track Trends

Sprints (6F, 6 1/2F, 7F): 18 races

• Winner’s average position at first call: 3.0
• Winners’ average beaten lengths at first call: 1.94

There were only two sprint races on Thursday’s card, so there wasn’t too much more to be learned. However, it was notable that for the second day in a row, speed did not seem to be such an advantage. To start the meet, nine of the first twelve sprint races were won by horses positioned 1st or 2nd at the first call, eight of whom were within a half length of the lead throughout, including the five gate-to-wire winners we saw last Saturday. On Sunday, however, the sprint race winners were positioned 4th, 6th, 3rd, and 1st at the first call, while on Thursday, the two winners came from 4th and 6th, both 3 1/2L off the lead. It seems the speed bias is fading, which is worth bearing in mind today. Also worth noting is that for the second year running, middle draws (gates 4-10) are dominating. They’ve accounted for 13 of the 18 sprint races winners at the meet so far (72%).

One-Turn Routes (1M, 1M 70YDS): 17 races

• Winner’s average position at first call: 3.99
• Winners’ average beaten lengths at first call: 2.14

Unlike sprint races, for the second day in a row, speed horses are doing really well in one-turn routes. All five of Thursday’s one-turn route winners were within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead at the first call meaning that since Sunday, eight of ten winners have either led or stalked (within 2 lengths of the pace) throughout. Meanwhile, mirroring last year’s trend, the inside draw bias that we saw at the start of the meet is fading as the rails come down. Thursday’s winners broke from gates 10, 11, 2, 6, and 7.

Two-Turn Routes (1 5/16M, 1 1/2M, 2 1/16M): 10 races

• Winner’s average position at first call: 4.7
• Winners’ average beaten lengths at first call: 3.45

There were four two-turn route races run on Thursday, providing us with a slightly larger sample size to analyze but still, no clear trends have emerged. Just find the best horse!

Horses To Follow

Race 4: #11 SATURDAY FLIRT (8/1 ML)

Though she tasted defeat at Royal Ascot in the 2024 Norfolk Stakes (G2), SATURDAY FLIRT has been flawless stateside, winning all three of her starts for trainer Wesley Ward. She’ll now try to keep that perfect record intact in today’s ultra-competitive fourth race, an 6 1/2F allowance, and could well do so at a decent price. Her recent Beyer speed figures – 81 two back and 80 in her last outing – are a notch below the favorites’ in this spot, but context matters: that 81 came after a 300-day layoff, and the 80 was earned on her less-preferred surface in the off-turf Soaring Softly Stakes (G3) last time. (Her maiden-breaking debut win didn’t receive a Beyer.) First race back, then off-the-turf – I’d bet my house we’re yet to see this filly’s best. And now, as she returns to a firm turf course to make her third start back off the lengthy layoff following a series of swift drills at Keeneland, she could be primed for a big career-best effort, entitling her to major respect today. Unlike many of Ward’s early-speed types, she always does her best work late and should love stretching out to today’s distance, plus she has a tactical outside post position and that man Frankie Dettori in the irons. There’s plenty to like about her chances and 8/1 morning-line odds seem very fair.

Race 7: #7 BRILLIANT BERTI (8/1 ML)

While it would be cool to see LAGYNOS grab his second stakes win of the meet in today’s Mint Millions Invitational Stakes (G3), the 8/1 morning-line odds about BRILLIANT BERTI are way more appealing. A winner of the $1.5m Gun Runner Stakes over this course and distance last year, ‘BERTI’ has come on strong as a 4-year-old, with wins in the Opening Verse Stakes and Wise Dan Stakes (G2) sandwiching a neck defeat in the Arlington Stakes (G3) two back. In all three starts, he’s beaten LAGYNOS too. He’s got tremendous tactical speed (so I hope Brian Hernandez Jr. is reading these blogs and knows that speed in one-turn routes is good); he’s been training great for this race since his last start; and he drew well in gate seven. His speed figures rank among the best in this field, but with only 11 starts under his belt, he might still have more to offer, and with a clear affinity for the track, there isn’t much to dislike.

Race 9: #5 TABITI (5/1 ML)

As previously mentioned, KILWIN and SHISOSPICY will likely take up most of the wagering for the $2m Music City Stakes (G2), and I have no major knocks against them. However, British raider TABITI sure is an intriguing alternative. After following up her maiden-breaking debut with a win in the Dick Poole Fillies’ Stakes (G3) last year, leading British trainer Ralph Beckett – who won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) with STARLUST – fitted the well-bred Juddmonte-owned daughter of KINGMAN with blinkers for her 3-year-old return in June. There’s no question the change sharpened her focus. Off a 259-day break, she ran a strong 2L third at 18/1 in the twenty-five-runner Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot two back, then improved to dead-heat with stablemate SAQQARA SANDS in the Oak Tree Stakes (G3) at Glorious Goodwood last time. That’s some of the strongest form in this race. Her recent speed figures from England compare well to today’s competition, yet she seems far from her peak, and as she now makes her third start of the form cycle, another step forward is likely. She’s as fast from the gates as any British-trained filly and tends to race on the lead, so she should secure a forward position early. She has experience on testing tracks like Goodwood that bodes well for this course, a solid middle draw, and Frankie Dettori in the irons too. I can’t say for sure she’ll topple the favorites, but there’s no way I’m leaving her off my tickets. This filly is good and only getting better.