Kentucky Downs Daily – Thursday, September 05, 2025

Day 4 of 7

What’s Happening

Week two of the Kentucky Downs meet kicks off with a head-scratching eleven race program on Thursday, highlighted by the $500k One Dreamer Stakes – one of nine route races on the card. Joe Sharp’s VIVE VEUVE tepidly heads the morning line at 5/2 for this 1M 70Y contest, though this’ll be far from a penalty kick for the 4-year-old daughter of COLLECTED. The card also includes three over-subscribed MSWs and seven high-quality allowances that have predictably drawn stakes quality competitors. One of those is WASKESIU, the 2024 G3 Florida Oaks winner, who’ll be returning from a 544-day layoff in the seventh.

What’s Happened

We saw some more high-quality performances on Sunday, with JOHNNY’S RED STROM ($5.48) and MERINGUE ($13.20) taking the $1m juvenile stakes either side of CHASING THE CROWN’s ($8.28) success off a 211-day layoff in the $500k handicap, race ten. CHASING THE CROWN earned a lofty 100 Beyer speed figure for that success, reaffirming the fact that his 64/1 third place effort in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf in January was no fluke. He’s seemingly getting better with age and might not have finished improving yet; it’s hard to believe he hasn’t won a stake!

Sunday, however, belonged to one man: Frankie Dettori. And honestly, I don’t know how he does it. No, I don’t mean riding winner after winner, but how does he keep doing those famous flying dismounts at 54-years of age without twisting an ankle or knee. Remarkable! After landing the $3.5m Nashville Derby on Saturday, Frankie then fired in four more winners on Sunday to take the lead in the rider standings and his record at the meet to 6-for-19 (32%; $4.04 ROI). It wouldn’t be surprising if Dettori’s mounts started to get over-bet from now on, but with his years of experience riding in Europe clearly handing him an advantage around this quirky track, I don’t think you can pass over any of his upcoming rides without a second look.

Luna Machado also took a couple of races on Sunday, taking his record at the meet to 2-for-13 (23%; $2.16 ROI). Of the riders with more than one win at the meet so far, only Dettori, Machado, Ben Curtis (2-for-19; 10%: $3.92 ROI) and Adam Beschizza (2-for-10; 20%, $21.10 ROI) are able to boast a positive return on investment. Given the nature of this track, is it a coincidence that three of those four riders – Dettori, Curtis and Beschizza – cut their teeth riding in Britain? Maybe not.

Here’s how the standings look:

Machado’s two wins on Sunday both came for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, who was highlighted in Thursday’s blog as a trainer to follow during the meet. He came into the meet with a 4-for-16 record (25%; $5.12 ROI) and has only gone and improved that to 6-for-19 (32%; $5.38 ROI). Those are serious stats and it should be worth giving his upcoming runners extra respect. Brisset sends out GOOD GAME (8/1 ML) in today’s sixth.

Mike Maker also fired in another winner on Sunday, so I think we can safely say that his Kentucky Downs drought is over. Meanwhile, Joe Sharp also found the winners’ circle again to take the lead in the trainers’ standings.

Here’s how the standings look:

Track Trends

Sprints (6F, 6 1/2F, 7F): 16 races

• Winner’s average position at first call: 2.75
• Winners’ average beaten lengths at first call: 1.74

Post position seemed to have minimal impact on Sunday’s sprints, with the four winners breaking from gates 9, 7, 5, and 2. Do note, however, that gate 1 went winless again, and is now just 2-for-44 in sprints since the start of the 2024 meet. What was noticeable on Sunday, though, was that there appeared to be less of a speed bias in the sprint races, with the four winners positioned 4th, 6th, 3rd and 1st at the first point of call – a stark contrast to the five gate-to-wire winners we saw on Saturday. Still, all four were within 3.5 lengths of the lead at the first call, which should be worth bearing in mind when handicapping today’s card.

One-Turn Routes (1M, 1M 70YDS): 12 races

• Winner’s average position at first call: 4.4
• Winners’ average beaten lengths at first call: 2.23

Sunday’s one-turn routes saw early speed fare better than earlier in the meet. Two of the five winners led (or co-led) throughout, while DIABLO SHIRAZ, paying $45.82 in the opener, stayed within 1.5 lengths of the lead, never worse than third. The final two winners came from further back, so we can’t say that a bias was present; however, tracking where the winners of Thursday’s early one-turn route race sit and noting if speed is good again could help narrow tickets later in the day. As for post-position, gates 1-6 again dominated on Sunday, producing three more winners. These gates have now accounted for 66% of one-turn route winners this meet and 85% (22-for-26) of one-turn route race winners when the rails have been out since the start of the 2024 meet. Remember, though, that this edge faded last year when rails dropped to zero.

Two-Turn Routes (1 5/16M, 1 1/2M, 2 1/16M): 6 races

• Winner’s average position at first call: 4.0
• Winners’ average beaten lengths at first call: 2.83

With only six two-turn routes run (two on Sunday), it’s still tough to draw any firm conclusions regarding track trends/biases in these races. That said, gates 4-6 have produced four of the six winners, and maybe there is something to be said about that?

Horses To Follow

Race 8: #8 DARK VINTAGE (15/1 ML)

We often see horses shipping over from Europe to further their careers in America, but it’s not often we see horses moving from America to Europe, and then back again! But that’s exactly what DARK VINTAGE has done, and I think he’s got a longshot’s chance in today’s eighth too. Formerly trained in California, the son of DARK ANGEL spent 2024 competing at a high level in England for Richard Fahey. He failed to register a win in ‘Old Blighty’ but did manage to finish 3rd in the Westow Stakes behind Breeders’ Cup winner BIG EVS and was consistently recording ratings in the mid-90s (stakes level). Since then returning to America, now under the care of Chris Block, he’s gradually worked his way back into form, building on his comeback run to score with ease at odds of 8/5 at Hawthorne two back, before posting a career best 80 Beyer (112 TUS figure – the fastest last out fig on offer in this race) with a runner-up effort in a tough allowance at Ellis Park last time. In both his last two starts going 5 1/2F, he’s hit he line hard, suggesting that today’s 6 1/2F trip could see him to even better effect, and if he’s now able to build further upon his most recent effort, aided by the additional ground, he should be capable of significantly outrunning his odds. He has speed to adopt a forward position from gate eight, experience in Europe offering confidence he’ll handle this track just fine, and a 6-for-7 in-the-money record in America too. There’s plenty to like about his chances and 15/1 seems more than fair.

Race 9: #8 PHAROAH’S WINE (8/1 ML)

Although it’s hard to knock the morning line favorite for today’s featured One Dreamer Stakes, VIVE VEUVE, following back-to-back allowance wins with Beyers of 91 and 90, this is a competitive field she’s facing, and I don’t think she’s offering value at 5/2. There’s plenty of others you can easily make a case for, and at the prices, PHAROAH’S WINE gets the nod. This Dale Romans trainee enters today’s contest with a profile nearly as strong as the favorite, having won back-to-back allowances with Beyers of 88 and 90, before a head defeat in the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf Mile Stakes at Ellis Park last time (88 Beyer), where she dead-heated for second place. That race’s form has been boosted since: the winner, SIMPLY IN FRONT, returned to finish 2nd in Saturday’s G2 Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes (96 Beyer), while the co-runner-up, AMBER CASCADE (who PHAROAH’S WINE dead-heated with), also came back to take 2nd in last Friday’s G2 Flower Bowl Stakes at Saratoga (93 Beyer). That’s some of the strongest recent form in this race, and with a 2023 win over this track on her resume, plus a convincing 2 1/4 length defeat of VIVE VEUVE just three starts back, there’s little to dislike about the 8/1 morning-line odds were getting on this in form filly.