Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Devil Be Me (Race 5)
Race #1: Selections: 1-4-2
The 5 for 18 6-year-old mare 1-Wrong Turn Cupid has speed from today’s inside draw and has succeeded on both the evening and afternoon layout. 4-Queen of the Track exits a sharp 4-length win, going 1,000 yards over the evening course on Nov. 30, and wasn’t far behind the top choice two-back. 2-Tiz the Prospect hasn’t been seen since her last win against cheaper back in September but is a contender in the Friday short-field opener.
Race #2: Selections: 1-5-2
1-Grazen Sun has won three of his last four starts and makes his second try off the claim for conditioner Sergio Morfin. This 5-year-old gelding is 3 for 7 going this 5 ½-furlong trip and sports some of the highest speed figures in the field. He’s tough to pick against despite the short odds. The veteran 7-year-old gelding 5-Debt Monger might prove quickest out of the gate, exiting back-to-back 1,000-yard runs over the evening layout. 2-Que Sera Sir Ralph finished a much-improved third in his last start under the lights and now makes his third try of the form cycle this afternoon.
Race #3: Selections: 1-3-5
1-Excel Calculator is making career start number 13 today but drops back down for a tag for trainer Ron Ellis and makes his second start off the extended layoff. Improvement is likely. Class-dropping 3-Hurricane Way stretches out and returns to dirt for conditioner Dan Blacker. This 3-year-old gelding just missed two back against straight MDSW types when sprinting on turf. 5-Resemblance finished third twice when last trying this Los Al main track to start his career.
Race #4: Selections: 3-2-4
3-Que Bella Luna finished fourth behind Stormy Gal on Nov. 3 but now makes the all-important third career try this afternoon for Ellis and figures to be tough with any standard progressive improvement. 2-Stormy Gal has been consistent at this bottom $20k level, and her best effort to date came over this course three-back when finishing second. 4-Smiling Amy has had 15 chances to break through the Maiden ranks without success but makes her third attempt at today’s bottom level and her second start off the layoff.
Race #5: Selections: 5-6-3
5-Devil Be Me goes turf to dirt while making his second start off the Steve Knapp purchase. This 6-year-old gelding is 5 for 12 lifetime, and this barn is a strong 7 for 26 (27%) with a $3.04 ROI for the past four years at Los Al with this claiming angle. When last trying dirt two-back, he was a decisive 3 ½-length winner with a lofty (92) Beyer. 6-Geezer was a game-winner on grass when beating Devil Be Me on Nov. 23 but is just as effective racing on dirt. The gelding has two wins and one third from three tries at Los Al. Blinkers on 3-Gypsy Tears goes turf to dirt and returns to Los Al where he’s 2 for 2. The 5-year-old had a sharp four-furlong drill at Santa Anita on Dec. 1.
Race #6: Selections: 2-5-3
2-Hot Box has spent most of his career sprinting on grass but has been successful over this main track in the past and takes a sizable class drop from $25k to $16,000 claimers this afternoon. He appears to be the quickest of this group and should prove challenging to reel in with an alert break. 5-My Man Bags returns off an extended break for conditioner Steve Knapp but has been training swiftly in his a.m. drills, including a “best of 62” four-furlong bullet drill on Nov. 30. This barn has come out firing on all cylinders this mini-meet (15-6-2-4). 3-Upward Mobility returns off a seven-month freshening for Team Miller but was a sharp winner in a lone try over this course.
Race #7: Selections: 7-4-3
7-Discrepancy has won four straight, including a pair of victories over this course. The 3-year-old filly co-tops the field’s best last-out Beyer (66) and figures to get another favorable stalking journey again this afternoon with today’s outside draw. 4-Ur in Trouble was a game second behind Discrepancy in that last Nov. 10 try at Del Mar and an impressive gate-to-wire winner over this layout on June 29. She’ll be ultra-tough if she can repeat that effort from earlier this past summer. 3-Super Enticing was outrun when facing better in the last pair of turf routes for trainer Peter Miller but is back sprinting on dirt this afternoon and is likely to bounce back in this softer spot.
Race #8: Selections 1-4-7
1-Liberal Lady has been freshened by trainer Leonard Powell for three months and ran well in her lone try over this racetrack. The 4-year-old filly has good early zip to coincide with today’s rail draw and figures to work out a good pressing trip on or close to the front. 4-Big Summer has earned the horse-to-beat status based on her most recent sharp runner-up try in the Betty Grable Stakes on Nov. 10, where she earned a field’s best last-out (87) Beyer. This ultra-consistent, hard-hitting mare is reunited with winning pilot Umberto Rispoli and should give our top choice quite a tussle. Blinkers on 7-Itzel goes turf to dirt and makes her second start off the bench for conditioner Peter Miller. She spotted the field a couple of lengths in her most recent try on Nov. 3 when hopping at the start. She’s dangerous with a clean break from today’s outside draw.
