Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Moonlight Tryst (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 3-4-6
3-Granada Flavor drops to a career-low, exiting a second-place finish on Oct. 27 against slightly better. Based on the best last-out main track Beyer (68), the 6-year-old gelding gets the slight edge in the Saturday opener. 4-Seattle Breakout is wheeled back off 8 days’ rest after plummeting against $16k claimers on Dec. 6 over the local footing. This group is much softer, however. 6-Frost Alert flashed good speed and tired late as the beaten chalk against much better competition on Dec. 7. He gets in light this afternoon and is a definite threat at today’s reduced level.
Race #2: Selections: 1-4-2
1-Moonlight Tryst has been freshened since being claimed back in August by the George Papaprodromou barn, which is a strong 3 for 8 (38%) with a $2.60 ROI the past two years with new acquisitions at Los Al. This daughter of American Pharoah has been training sharply for today’s return to action for her new connections. 4-Miss Miche Lada has shown good early zip in most of her six career starts for trainer Steve Knapp and makes her second start off the 10-month freshening this afternoon. She finished a good third at this level at Del Mar on Nov. 23. 2-Zoom Zoom Zoya goes turf to dirt and drops in for a first-time tag off a troubled trip grass sprint debut back in January.
Race #3: Selections: 2-4-1
2-Thirsty Destiny was a well-beaten fifth against this same level at Santa Anita on Oct. 19 but returns to Los Al today, where she was a Maiden victor two-back. A pair of back-to-back four-furlong drills at Santa Anita on Nov. 30 and Dec. 8 indicates she’s feeling good. 4-Gracie’s Big Day has been freshened since her Maiden win when racing off the claim and looks well-placed for her first crack against winners for the Ron Ellis barn. 1-Press Your Luck has been absent for nearly six months for Team O’Neill since breaking her Maiden over this course on June 30. She’s been training steadily at San Luis Rey in recent weeks in preparation for this.
Race #4: Selections: 1-2-3
1-Queen Girvin slashes her claiming tag in half off a recent fourth-place effort at Del Mar on Nov. 30 for conditioner Ruben Gomez, who had a pair of 7-1 winners last Saturday. This 3-year-old filly broke her Maiden over this course two back and appears well-placed this afternoon. Class dropping 2-Sweet Vengeance goes turf to dirt off the mini-freshening for trainer Michael McCarthy and broke her Maiden over this main track last summer while sprinting. She looks like the main threat to the top pick. 3-Jai Ho only has one other prior start on dirt but makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon for Team Miller and takes a sizable class drop. She’s eligible to improve today for a top barn.
Race #5: Selections: 1-7-3
1-Charmz Away returns as a first-time gelding off the mini-freshening for conditioner Luis Mendez and has posted some of the fastest dirt Beyers in this field. His last pair of four-furlong drills on Nov. 27 and Dec. 9 were very sharp. This should be graduation day. 7-Big Notion finished a decent third at 32-1 despite breaking a tad slowly in his Nov. 15 turf sprint debut at Del Mar and is eligible to move forward off that try for trainer Steve Miyadi. His sire Mr. Big gets a solid 16% with dirt sprint prodigy. 3-Mr. Machupicchu finished ahead of the top choice when last seen sprinting on the grass on Oct. 25 at Santa Anita and has run well over this main track as well.
Race #6: Selections: 1-7-3
1-Rio Del Sol shortens up to a sprint today while making the all-important third career try for trainer Michael McCarthy. She finished a good third in her Aug. 25 debut but was a disappointing, well-beaten sixth in start number two when she was eased and walked off the course. Her recent drills have been solid, and Hernandez will take over the riding assignment today. 7-Polythene Pam is by Viloence, who gets a solid 19% with his debuting prodigy. This filly draws a cozy outside post and has some sharp a.m. drills on the resume for conditioner Librado Barocio. 3-Lava Lucy is by multiple G1 winner Dads Caps and has trained decently for trainer Luis Mendez. She meets a modest group and has a chance at first asking.
Race #7: Selections: 4-2-3
4-Got Soul finished a much-improved second at Pleasanton on Nov. 17 in career start number two and should prove tough in here with another forward move. Kimura gets the return mount. Reddam Racing’s 2-Nap is back sprinting on dirt for trainer Antonio Garcia off an improved try on the turf on Nov. 10. Perhaps the gelding is rounding back into the form he showed this past summer. 3-James J. Braddock (by G1 winner Jimmy Creed) has trained steadily for the red-hot Knapp barn.
Race #8: Selections 1-3-5
Trainer Bob Baffert has 60% of the entries in this short five-horse Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity field. A race that he’s won an incredible 14 times. 1-Gaming has gotten the best of his stablemate Getaway Car on two prior occasions and is the horse to beat again off his runner-up try in the G1 BC Juvenile, where he earned a career-best (95) Beyer speed figure. The G1-winning colt draws a favorable post for his second route attempt, and Prat is in for the ride. 3-Getaway Car wasn’t far behind his stablemate in the aforementioned BC Juvenile when finishing a respectable fourth, and this son of Curlin is clearly second to his barn mate as far as Beyer numbers go. He was second in the G1 American Pharoah two-back behind winning BC Juvenile champion stablemate Citizen Bull. The rapidly improving 5-Journalism steps up off a sharp Maiden win at Del Mar on Nov. 17 when stretched out to two turns. This $825K purchase by Curlin could be the spoiler with the right set-up.
Race #9: Selections 1-7-2
1-Big Gain finished a well-beaten wide third over this strip nine days ago but now drops from the $50k level to the bottom $20,000 condition for Team Miller. The jockey switch to Armando Ayuso should prove key. Blinkers off 7-Arromax makes his second start off the Steve Knapp claim and has finished third in three consecutive races at this level. This red-hot barn is a solid 3 for 10 (30%) with a $3.56 ROI with second-off-the-claim runners at Los Al when routing. 2-Mardy’s Fish has done little running in three career tries for D’Amato but takes a serious class plunge this afternoon while returning to dirt and is bred to relish two turns over the main track.
