Analysis & Selections
By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Supermax (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 5-4-7
5-Lelluri debuts for team Baffert off the barn’s typical flashy work tab and lures go-to pilot Juan Hernandez. The daughter of Justify looks well-meant for a barn that is 4 for 6 (67%) and 6-for-6 ITM with debuting fillies at Los Al. The speedy 4-Double Bay is one of two fillies trained by Michael McCarthy in the Friday afternoon opener. This 4-year-old has not been out in over a year but has trained sharply for an excellent layoff barn. She’s by No Nay Never, who gets 20% with his dirt sprint starters, so today’s surface switch should be an issue. 7-Shore Lodge makes the all-important third career start and has trained well off the four-month freshening, including a recent :47.2 four-furlong drill on June 22.
Race #2: Selections: 2-5-7
2-Stan From Malibu steps up in class and is wheeled back on short rest after a sharp score on June 20, looking to go 3-for-3 over the afternoon layout. 5-Bronko Nagurski has won two straight at Santa Anita, defeating a similar field on May 31. The 5-year-old gelding sports the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (73). 7-Howbeit finished second behind Bronko Nagurski in his most recent try, and returns to Los Al, where he’s 2-for-2.
Race #3: Selections: 3-7-5
3-Otro Mas was fractious and broke slowly when last seen at SA on May 2 when outrun, but gets back to Los Al, where he was a winner on the evening card two-back. The 5-year-old gelding has run well on both tries over the bigger afternoon layout as well, and projects to sit a nice stalking journey this afternoon. 7-Instinct D’ Oro has good speed and has been successful on both the afternoon and evening Los Al layouts. The 4-for-9 colt exits a 1,000-yard win on June 8 and looks to win again, stretching out to 5 ½ furlongs. 5-Bag’s Gold returns off a seven-month layoff for trainer Ryan Hanson, and despite this gelding firing fresh in the past, the barn is only 1 for 34 with horses returning off >180 days the past five years.
Race #4: Selections: 3-4-1
Four of the eight older mares entered here exited the same May 31 race at Santa Anita. 3-Hollywood Mistress rallied for second in the aforementioned May 31 event and may find the long Los Al stretch conducive to her late-closing running style. The 7-year-old mare projects to be tighter today, making her second try off the layoff. 4-Sweet Hello battled with Tiergarten on the frontend before tiring to third, beaten 10 lengths for conditioner Bob Hess. She will look to rebound here with the change of venue and looks quickest off the blocks. 1-Tiergarten was claimed for $8k by trainer Steve Miyadi when dropping sharply in her most recent try against several of these. She is in for $6,250 this afternoon.
Race #5: Selections: 5-10-7
5-Rebel Nation is by Grade 2 winner Texas Ryano, who is 0 for 14 with 2-year-old firsters according to DRF Formulator. However, this juvenile debuts from the Peter Miller barn that is 5 for 13 (38%) with a $3.34 ROI with maiden claiming first-time starters at Los Al the past five years. Jockey Edwin Maldonado (who is off to a fast start this mini-meet) is in the saddle. 10-Wave With Envy has trained steadily for today’s unveiling for conditioner Jorge Periban, and is by Unusual Heatwave (11-3-0-2) with juvenile firsters. The gelding is nicely drawn outside. 7-Mr. Pippins is the most experienced juvenile in the field and drops in for a first-time tag this afternoon.
Race #6: Selections: 2-1-3
2-The Big Cheeseola returns off a three-month mini-freshening for owner/trainer Steve Knapp and was a winner going this 5 ½-furlong trip when last seen over the larger Los Al layout. Class dropping 1-Rhino puts blinkers back on this afternoon after a wide journey over this course last week. The 5-year-old gelding makes his second start of the seven-month layoff and is likely to move forward off that last effort. He fired a series of bullets prior to his return try. Knapp’s other gelding, 3-Tizz a Good Thing, has been trounced by double digits in his last three starts, but drops down for a career-low claiming tag today and could very well spring back to life at today’s reduced level.
Race #7: Selections: 7-5-3
7-Super Max drops in for a career-low claiming tag, making his third start off the bench this afternoon for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. The 5-year-old gelding was a sharp off-the-pace 20-1 upset winner two-back, and projects to get a live race flow to close into this afternoon. He sports the best top late TimeFormUS pace rating (97) in the field and trains over the local surface in the a.m. 5-Devilinthebluegras is in sharp form and proven over this course. The gelding makes his first start off the claim for conditioner Angela Aquino, who has solid stats with new acquisitions. 3-Havoc is wheeled back off short rest after finishing and even fourth against much better claimers last week. Today’s class plunge should help, but the gelding is winless since December 2023.
Race #8: Selections 3-7-4
The Knapp-trained 3-Regal Patriot exits back-to-back sharp grass sprint wins with Beyers of 93 and 95. The 5-year-old gelding is 7-for-14 lifetime and looks tough if he handles this racetrack. He is already a three-time winner on dirt and is not a need-the-lead type, which helps his chances this afternoon. The obvious knock is the short price. Turf to dirt 7-It’s a Cinch has won two straight turf sprints for conditioner Luis Mendez, with his last score coming off the eight-month layoff. The lightly raced colt looks like the main danger to the top pick if he handles the switch back to dirt, and also potentially moving forward off that last sharp try. 4-Sharona’s Wild Boy showed little at long odds in his June 7 return try, but could move forward off that uninspiring turf effort on the class drop and surface switch. The gelding shows a bullet drill over the local surface on June 19.
Race #9: Selections 11-9-3
11-Lil Richards Bello could spring the mild upset in the Friday Los Al nightcap. The veteran 8-year-old gelding shortens up to a sprint this afternoon, going turf to dirt, and should be rallying strongly through the lane into a projected swift pace. 9-Pokerknightatvees goes turf to dirt after flashing good speed off the seven-month layoff on June 1 for trainer Doug O’Neill, and broke his maiden in his debut over this course three back. The son of I’ll Have Another is likely to move forward from that last try. First time gelding 3-Run for Kidder returns off a two-month freshening for trainer Adam Kitchingman and ran well in his debut when runner-up over the Los Al afternoon layout. The gelding has traded punches with 4-Binging over the past couple of years, who returns to dirt today and holds the recency edge over Run for Kidder.
