Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Lady of Sky (Race 8)
Race #1: Selections: 5-1-4
5-Queen Alexa has worked steadily for this afternoon’s unveiling and meets a slow group of maiden-claiming fillies and mares. The sire and trainer stats are nothing to get too excited about, however. King of Jazz is 20-1-3-0 with his debuting prodigy according to DRF Formulator, and trainer Craig Lewis is 3 for 60 (5%) with his firsters the past five years. One of those debut winners did come at Los Al. 1-Mamarando is a 16-start maiden that has been off since March. She has hit the board in six of those 16 tries. 4-Smooth Over finished a troubled trip fourth on June 6 at SA and has run some fair races over the Los Al afternoon layout.
Race #2: Selections: 4-6-2
4-Brandon’s Girl takes a substantial class plunge today, exiting back-to-back maiden special weight tries and sports the highest main track Beyers in this field. 6-Snoozeulose was trounced in her May 18 turf sprint try, but drops in for a tag this afternoon, moving to dirt. The sample is small, but trainer Doug O’Neill is a sharp 3 for 5 (60%) with a $3.12 ROI the past four years with second-time starters going turf to dirt and dropping from MDSW to maiden claimers. 2-Ionian Gem flashed improved speed in her most recent turf route try against better before folding badly late and finishing ninth and last. The Daniel Dunham filly has worked well over at San Luis Rey and could last a lot longer at this reduced level.
Race #3: Selections: 1-4-3
1-Smiling Carmen lost all realistic chance when stumbling at the start of her May 24 Santa Anita unveiling for conditioner Jorge Periban, attracting decent support when sent to post at 7-1. This Stay Thirsty filly drops in for a tag in start number two and is likely to improve significantly. 4-Can You Dream is one of two fillies in here that’s raced twice, and this daughter of Acclamation goes turf to dirt while dropping in for a first-time tag. She’s trained well over the local footing and makes the all-important third career start. 3-Remember April has worked fairly well for trainer Tim Yakteen, but this barn is 0 for 5 with debut runners over the local course, and her sire Grazen is only (6%) with juvenile debuting prodigy.
Race #4: Selections: 5-1-4
5-White Mountain stretches back out and moves back to dirt after a decent fourth against better on May 23. The 4-year-old gelding ran well in both one-mile tries at Santa Anita and drops in for a career-low $12,500 claiming tag. 1-Majestic Palisades has speed and the rail and has two runner-up finishes over the afternoon layout. The gelding is expected to benefit from a favorable trip with today’s rail draw. 4-Gentlemen’s Club moves back to dirt after several grass route tries since the beginning of the year. The Craig Lewis gelding did break his maiden over this racetrack and is another dropping in for a career-low claiming tag. He is eligible to wake up with the change of venue, surface change, and class drop.
Race #5: Selections: 7-1-3
7-Flexible Terms must negotiate today’s outside draw but moves to the main track for the first time for Team O’Neill and takes a sizable class drop off the three-month layoff. The 3-year-old gelding is by Constitution, who gets a strong 18% with his dirt route runners. 1-Redial (by Grade 1 winner Dialed In) goes turf to dirt and drops in for a first-time tag after getting beaten by double digits in all three turf tries. This barn has above-average stats with this class drop, and his breeding suggests routing on dirt is fine. 3-Bigredsandribeyes goes turf to dirt on the class plunge while making his third start off the bench. The gelding switches to Kimura this afternoon and ran OK in both dirt dries at DMR to start his career.
Race #6: Selections: 1-3-6
1-Song of Shadows goes turf to dirt for her second try off the five-month layoff for trainer Steve Miyadi. The 5-year-old mare returns to the Los Al afternoon layout, where she’s gone 2-for-3 over her career. She has speed, the rail draw, and figures to be hustled along by the seven-pound apprentice. 3-Isabel Ludlow exits a seven-length romp against similar at SA on May 18 and now goes first off the claim for conditioner Jesus Mendoza. This mare sports the field’s best last-out (73) main track Beyer. 6-Elegant Sway goes turf to dirt on the class drop and is a sharp (5-2-1-1) going today’s 5 ½-furlong trip. She should be closing strongly through the long stretch.
Race #7: Selections: 9-1-5
Jockey Juan Hernandez doesn’t ride as frequently on the shortened three-week Los Al afternoon program, but when he does, it usually means he is super live. 9-Bit’s Tiger Magic has won two of three for trainer Peter Miller and was a decisive grass sprint winner off a long layoff. The Smiling Tiger filly has already proven she can handle dirt. The lightly raced 1-Can’t Sleep has two wins and a second on the turf for trainer Carla Gaines, but has been training swiftly over the Santa Anita dirt for her first start in five months. The daughter of Om is likely to come out running off the bench with Fresu in the saddle. 5-Fibonaccis Ride has flashed good speed in all three career tries for trainer Cesar DeAlba and should appreciate turning back to a sprint today, where she was a runaway six-length maiden winner over this course in her debut last September.
Race #8: Selections 3-1-6
3-Lady of Sky should clear this field for her new barn while taking a sizable class plunge from $32k claimers to today’s $6,250 level. This 3-year-old filly by Vronsky looks like a strong gate-to-wire threat at today’s reduced level. 1-Miss Miche Lada removes the blinkers today after back-to-back speed and fade efforts against better, when well-beaten in both SA sprint tries for trainer Sergio Morfin. This daughter of Stay Thirsty did run well in her lone try over this course, so perhaps she can rebound today with the equipment change, class relief, and the change of venue. 6-Sent by Angels ships back in from Turf Paradise off four consecutive in-the-money finishes against similar and has run well over this course in the past.
