Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Oveta’s Hobby (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 6-5-4
6-St Petersburg is by multiple Grade 1 winner Constitution, who gets a solid 15% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. The $700,000 Fasig-Tipton purchase debuts for Team Baffert off a solid work tab and lures Hernandez. This lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 5 for 10 (50%) with Los Al firsters the past five years. 5-Sleeper Sullivan ran an even sixth in his Gulfstream debut back in April and has been training well for his second start and Southern California unveiling. The colt adds blinkers today and is one of two colts entered by conditioner Luis Mendez. 4-L Rankin (by Maximus Mischief) debuts for trainer Peter Miller, who is 6 for 26 (23%) with his Los Al firsters the past five years. The colt gets a cozy draw to the outside portion of this short field.
Race #2: Selections: 1-7-2
1-Legal Mousse returns as a first-time gelding on the class drop for career try number two, exiting a non-threatening seventh-place finish on May 3. That Maiden Special Weight event has turned out to be a key race, producing three next-out winners. 7-Seager Man is nicely drawn on the far outside, making the all-important third career try off an improving Beyer pattern. 2-Last Call Paul is a 23-star maiden but has finished second here in all three tries.
Race #3: Selections: 3-7-1
3-Flash That Smile has flashed speed in three of his four dirt sprint tries at Santa Anita and had a tough trip in his most recent effort on June 7 when stumbling out of the gate and racing wide thereafter. The 5-year-old daughter of Smiling Tiger takes a sizable class drop from $50k to $20,000 maiden claimers today and could be tough to reel in with an alert break. 7-Ellie Moore (Ire) has never tried dirt in 10 career starts but drops in class today for conditioner Peter Miller, exiting a solid runner-up grass sprint effort against better on May 31. 1-Tom’s Star is an eight-start maiden that was beaten by double digits in both tries over this racetrack. Nonetheless, he has been freshened for this and has trained sharply in the a.m. over the local course.
Race #4: Selections: 2-3-5
Class dropping 2-King Apollo has run well in all three tries over this dirt course and returns off a 10-week mini-freshening for conditioner Bob Hess. His stablemate, 3-Father Delay, was up against a pair of repeat winners in Navajo Warrior and Wound Up in his last two tries and drops in for a career-low claiming tag this afternoon. The late-closing 5-Sbagliato has run some of the fastest Beyers in the field, albeit on turf, but has a dirt pedigree, and this jockey-trainer combo has done well with the turf-to-dirt surface switch at this venue.
Race #5: Selections: 1-7-5
1-Danzing Cat returns off a 10-month layoff for trainer Peter Miller, who is 4 for 18 (22%) with a positive ROI with horses returning off >180 days at Los Al. The 5-year-old mare drops in for a career-low claiming tag today and is likely to be hustled along from the rail for a forward position. 7-Grazen Touch battled gamely on the front end before driving to a 1 ¾-length victory off a long absence when winning under the lights on May 18. Two-back, she broke her maiden over this larger course before hitting the sidelines for an extended vacation. A logical threat right back for the potential repeat. 5-Borntostaythirsty has hit the board in five consecutive 1,000-yard races under the lights, while landing her first win on June 7.
Race #6: Selections: 6-9-5
6-Fly Zapper makes his initial start over the bigger afternoon layout but is super-fast off the blocks when breaking alertly and kicked away to a 4-length maiden win two-back going 4 ½ furlongs. There is no reason to think he cannot get another furlong this afternoon. The 3-year-old gelding returned to fire a “best of 22” bullet four-furlong drill in :46 flat on June 13 for a winning jockey-trainer combo. 9-Uplift is on the improve and was nearly two lengths clear of a trio of today’s returning rivals when last seen on May 31. 5-Spiritist is 1 for 26 but drops in for a career-low claiming tag today with the addition of blinkers. The 5-year-old gelding has run well over this course.
Race #7: Selections: 7-5-4
7-Oveta’s Hobby was a runaway 12-length maiden winner when last trying this course back in December of last year. The lightly-raced daughter of Army Mule has hit the board in six of seven tries and exits a sharp runner-up grass sprint effort on May 25. She makes her third start off the bench today for trainer John Sadler and is reunited with winning pilot Juan Hernandez. 5-Lovin’ On the Run goes second off the claim and turf to dirt for Team O’Neill, exiting a decent third-place N3L allowance grass effort in the aforementioned May 25 behind Oveta’s Hobby. 4-Quantum Energy is 2-for-2 over this racetrack with one of those wins coming at today’s 6 ½-furlong trip. She was hardly disgraced in a wide-trip fifth in the Fran’s Valentine S. on May 24.
Race #8: Selections 6-7-1
6-Mr. Disrespectful is likely the fastest out of the gate and appears to be in career-best form, having won two of his last three tries with a good second over the main track two-back. The 5-year-old gelding makes his first start over this course but has trained superbly over it in the a.m. The multiple stakes-winning 7-Kings River Knight is the class of this field and the horse to beat for trainer John Sadler, having won the 2023 edition. He is a perfect 2-for-2 over this racetrack and has proven to be able to sit and pounce if need be. The gritty 7-year-old gelding has 11 wins from 18 career starts with five runner-up finishes. 1-Barely Functional has run well in both tries over this course and could be the beneficiary of a potentially hotly contested early pace. The gelding should get a favorable ground-saving journey from the rail.
Race #9: Selections 2-9-1
2-Supersonic Flyer has won two of her last three starts on the evening program, going shorter, but is a proven seven-time winner going today’s 5 ½ furlongs and appears fast enough to grab the lead in the Saturday nightcap. A winner of four of five tries at this trip, 9-Rose of Jericho exits a pair of sharp tries at Santa Anita and looks like the horse to beat, making her third start of the form cycle. She’ll be tough against this group if she can handle this venue. 1-Roman Empress has finished behind Rose of Jericho in her last two starts, but her Beyers have improved with each subsequent start since the beginning of April.
